October 2021

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251735
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

CIGs and VSBY slowly improving this morning as area now split
between MVFR and VFR. Expecting over the next couple of hours this
will shift decidedly towards VFR, with light SEish winds until
evening.

Like last night, should have an opportunity for low stratus and/or
fog late tonight. No 1/4SM explicitly in the TAFs for now, but
there is some potential for a TEMPO or a couple hours of that if
winds go slack.

&&

[DoctorMu]

when will this weather be moving through Wed? I gotta flight at 6:40pm from bmt/dfw/omaha...

It should be out of the area by early afternoon.

Right. The squall line and front will be going through College Station by 11 am. Houston by 2 pm. Strong Fall fronts often overperform vs. models, so I'd expect the front to be over the GOM well before 6 pm Wednesday.

[Iceresistance]

Very Strong Winds are expected Thursday across Central Oklahoma, 35-55 mph winds & gusts up to 50-60 mph

[snowman65]

here ya go....told ya lol

[Kingwood36]

here ya go....told ya lol

They had the same outlook last year and look what happebd with the freeze..

[MontgomeryCoWx]

here ya go....told ya lol

The NOAA over the last decade has been right as much as a broken clock. So not much.

Your Schtick is as old as tropikals.

[weatherguy425]

here ya go....told ya lol

They had the same outlook last year and look what happebd with the freeze..

And much of last winter, as a whole, was milder than average. These maps indicate the chance of various averaged temperature anomalies. One week if cold doesn’t mean the entire winter was.

[Stratton20]

These winter outlooks are a joke, definitely dont think this winter will be warmer than average , they should just atop with these winter outlooks

[don]

The HRRR,3K NAM,and other mesoscale models are in good agreement with a potent line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving through southeast Texas tomorrow morning.And are also showing hints of the southern half of the squall line bowing out indicating strong winds,with decent low level shear. Stay weather aware tomorrow morning.

[Stratton20]

12z GFS shows the potential for a massive cool down around the 2nd of November, a potential arctic outbreak

[don]

FCpJ7JiXMAM6mfO.jpg

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds and a few tornadoes should occur Wednesday into
Wednesday night across parts of east/southeast Texas across
Louisiana to the central Gulf Coast.

...East Texas/ArkLaTex to the Central Gulf Coast...
A highly amplified upper trough over the Plains will progress
eastward Wednesday, eventually closing off over the lower/mid MS
Valley and Mid-South late. An elongated area of surface low pressure
initially over the southern/central Plains should develop to the
Ozarks through Wednesday evening. The cold front attendant to the
surface low will sweep eastward across central/east TX through the
day, and will continue over much of the lower MS Valley Wednesday
night. Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward in tandem
with a surface warm front ahead of the advancing cold front from
southeast/east TX into much of LA and the central Gulf Coast states.
A threat for severe/damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will exist
where this low-level moisture is sufficient to support surface-based
storms.

A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
Wednesday morning from parts of southeastern OK to south-central TX.
Mainly a scattered damaging wind threat will probably persist with
this line as it moves quickly eastward across east/southeast TX
through about midday. With greater low-level moisture attempting to
return northward ahead of this activity, filtered diurnal heating
should help foster around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by early Wednesday
afternoon south of the warm front. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt
will support storm organization with the line, and with any
supercells that can develop ahead of it. Latest guidance shows
conflicting signals on this pre-squall line supercell potential, but
low-level warm advection associated with an eastward-migrating 35-45
kt southerly low-level jet suggests at least some threat for
discrete supercells ahead of the line. Regardless of convective
mode, low-level shear across the warm sector should be sufficient
for updraft rotation, and isolated tornadoes may occur with
mesovorticies embedded within the line, and with any supercells that
can develop ahead of it.

This tornado and damaging wind threat will shift eastward across
much of LA Wednesday afternoon and into southern MS/AL and the
western FL Panhandle Wednesday evening/night.

[Iceresistance]

12z Models are going crazy for Next Week

[Kingwood36]

12z Models are going crazy for Next Week

What are they showing..I just ordered a let's go brandon hoodie..may need to try it out

[Iceresistance]

That would be NASTY cold for November if this verified

[MontgomeryCoWx]

No joke. The A&M-Auburn game could be quite cold in CS.

Praying for a night game!

[Stratton20]

Yeah im going to that A&M vs Auburn game , definitely could be really cold, but I absolutely love cold college football games!!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’ve only experienced winter precip once in Kyle Field.

1993 Texas vs A&M. Freezing rain and sleet.

[Katdaddy]

Glad the line of storm will be in the morning and not during the peak heating of the day. Gotta say I am looking forward to the Thursday wind event with sunny skies.

[Stratton20]

Hate that the storms are moving in during the morning, I have to walk to my 10:20 lecture this is gonna be fun haha

[TXWeatherMan]

Hate that the storms are moving in during the morning, I have to walk to my 10:20 lecture this is gonna be fun haha

Most models having it moving out well before that for your area