Invest 93L Eastern/Central Atlantic

[srainhoutx]

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010080600, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 115N, 367W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080506, , BEST, 0, 116N, 362W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 119N, 360W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 123N, 358W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 127N, 358W, 25, 1009, DB

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 060048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC FRI AUG 6 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100806 0000 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100806  0000   100806  1200   100807  0000   100807  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.7N  35.8W   14.0N  36.5W   15.3N  37.8W   16.9N  39.5W
BAMD    12.7N  35.8W   13.9N  36.8W   15.3N  37.9W   17.0N  39.6W
BAMM    12.7N  35.8W   14.0N  36.6W   15.4N  37.8W   16.9N  39.5W
LBAR    12.7N  35.8W   13.8N  36.7W   15.2N  38.2W   16.6N  40.0W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          46KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100808  0000   100809  0000   100810  0000   100811  0000

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.5N  41.6W   21.5N  46.6W   23.9N  51.0W   25.7N  53.9W
BAMD    19.0N  41.6W   22.7N  45.6W   25.2N  48.4W   26.4N  49.0W
BAMM    18.7N  41.5W   21.8N  45.9W   24.2N  49.5W   25.9N  51.3W
LBAR    18.2N  42.1W   20.7N  46.9W   22.4N  50.9W   24.3N  52.9W
SHIP        51KTS          57KTS          56KTS          52KTS
DSHP        51KTS          57KTS          56KTS          52KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.7N LONCUR =  35.8W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  11.9N LONM12 =  36.0W DIRM12 =  29DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  11.5N LONM24 =  36.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[Ptarmigan]

If conditions are good, it could be Danielle. I think its path could change over time. If it was a fish storm, the ACE would go up.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Ptarmigan]

I think 93L will develop and become Danielle.

[srainhoutx]

May see an Upgrade to TD with 93L...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

[Ptarmigan]

May see an Upgrade to TD with 93L...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

It's small size will give it a better chance at development because it has less area to cover. I know large tropical waves have developed quickly too.