September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151720
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings will eventually transition to a
mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings by late afternoon but this
improvement will be short lived as an inversion aloft will trap
low level moisture near the surface tonight with a mix of MVFR and
IFR ceilings redeveloping. Fcst soundings show ceilings improving
a bit faster on Thursday with VFR conds possible after 18z. Winds
will remain light and generally from the north. 43


&&

[sambucol]

Is Nicholas backing up on us?

[jasons2k]

I’m just not a fan of all day gray, cloudy, drizzly weather no matter what month it is or how ‘pleasant’ it feels outside. I’m ready to see some sun again.

[Kingwood36]

I’m just not a fan of all day gray, cloudy, drizzly weather no matter what month it is or how ‘pleasant’ it feels outside. I’m ready to see some sun again.

It's nice sometimes after weeks of blazing sun and 100 degrees..a overcast or clody gray skies with cool breeze is nice and a change of pace

[Stratton20]

The sun can stay away for all of this week! This cloudy and cool weather rocks!!

[BlueJay]

I’m just not a fan of all day gray, cloudy, drizzly weather no matter what month it is or how ‘pleasant’ it feels outside. I’m ready to see some sun again.

The sun has made its appearance in The Woodlands!
It is nice.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The sun can come out when it’s less than 80 degrees. Otherwise, it can stay bottled up.

[jasons2k]

I’m just not a fan of all day gray, cloudy, drizzly weather no matter what month it is or how ‘pleasant’ it feels outside. I’m ready to see some sun again.

It's nice sometimes after weeks of blazing sun and 100 degrees..a overcast or clody gray skies with cool breeze is nice and a change of pace

I'm good for about a day's worth and then ready to move on.

[Cpv17]

I’m just not a fan of all day gray, cloudy, drizzly weather no matter what month it is or how ‘pleasant’ it feels outside. I’m ready to see some sun again.

It's nice sometimes after weeks of blazing sun and 100 degrees..a overcast or clody gray skies with cool breeze is nice and a change of pace

I'm good for about a day's worth and then ready to move on.

That’s because of where you’ve lived most of your life..The Sunshine State. It’s just what you’ve come accustomed to.

[jasons2k]

It's nice sometimes after weeks of blazing sun and 100 degrees..a overcast or clody gray skies with cool breeze is nice and a change of pace

I'm good for about a day's worth and then ready to move on.

That’s because of where you’ve lived most of your life..The Sunshine State. It’s just what you’ve come accustomed to.

I wish. Only 10 of my 47 years (not counting vacations & summers). Spent many a long, gray, drizzly winter up in the DFW Metroplex once we moved to Texas.

[DoctorMu]

The remnants of Nicholas look cutoff to me. That should mean higher rain chances for us as the high to the east builds back in.

The GFS has been shoving the remnant back towards Texas increasing rain chances by Friday.

Not a surprise. Nick came for the X-mas cookies and won't leave!

[DoctorMu]

The sun can stay away for all of this week! This cloudy and cool weather rocks!!

Yeah, it looks and feels with the NE breeze a bit more like football weather!

[Cpv17]

I'm good for about a day's worth and then ready to move on.

That’s because of where you’ve lived most of your life..The Sunshine State. It’s just what you’ve come accustomed to.

I wish. Only 10 of my 47 years (not counting vacations & summers). Spent many a long, gray, drizzly winter up in the DFW Metroplex once we moved to Texas.

Where all have you lived? I’ve only lived in southeast TX my entire life so this is pretty much all I know. I’ve yet to even go to Florida lol

[Cpv17]

The sun can stay away for all of this week! This cloudy and cool weather rocks!!

Yeah, it looks and feels with the NE breeze a bit more like football weather!

Unfortunately, the sun came out for a good bit this afternoon at work. I actually started sweating again

[Stratton20]

I used to live in Norway, the sun practically never came out their, no matter what season it was, thats why im loving this cooler and cloudy weather

[jasons2k]

That’s because of where you’ve lived most of your life..The Sunshine State. It’s just what you’ve come accustomed to.

I wish. Only 10 of my 47 years (not counting vacations & summers). Spent many a long, gray, drizzly winter up in the DFW Metroplex once we moved to Texas.

Where all have you lived? I’ve only lived in southeast TX my entire life so this is pretty much all I know. I’ve yet to even go to Florida lol

Florida (Freeze of '83), then Savannah, GA (Hurricanes Kate & Bob, Freeze of '85 at 3 degrees), then Plano (1989&1990 freezes), Birmingham (1993 Superstorm with 16"), Lubbock (1997 High Plains Super-Outbreak), Dallas, and then back and forth between here and there before staying here in 2005. We do spend a lot of time in Florida as we have a place down there to visit whenever time allows us to go. Not as much as I would like.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 160957
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
457 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today through Friday Night]...

Post tropical Nicholas wobbling around near the LA coast in the
vicinity of Marsh Island. Circulation of Nicholas still impacting
SETX with light N/NE winds and bringing in stratus deck from the
east and will continue wrap around through the areas east of the I-
45 corridor and probably down over the coastal areas southwest of
the Metro. The cloud deck should erode through the late
morning/early afternoon hours with temperatures quickly responding
and climbing into the 86-91 degree range inland. Coastal areas
should still reach the mid 80s. Rain chances still linger in the
east albeit slim with sprinkles and light showers beneath the cap.
Winds decouple in the evening and skies clear out though some cirrus
may speckle the area. Patchy fog will be possible toward morning
Friday near sunrise but at this point probably at the rural sites
mainly north of the I-10 corridor. On Friday the north winds relax
and a seabreeze should develop and spread inland late afternoon with
not only a moderate expanse of CU field but also some cirrus as
upper low slips int the north-central portions of TX. Rain chances
should still be low over the east even with the approach of the
upper disturbance. Loss of heating in the evening should curtail the
convective development but as upper low meanders closer late in the
evening then early Saturday morning rain chances should ramp up as
the cooling aloft and low level convergence increases. Threat for
thunderstorms near the coast should be on the increase.
45

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

The combination of wraparound moisture from the remnants of Nicholas
and a weak upper-level low will lead to steady PoPs over the
weekend. These will be of our usual variety with
showers/thunderstorms along the seabreeze, but coverage should be
slightly higher east of I-45 and offshore where there is more
moisture availability. The deeper moisture associated with the
remnants of Nicholas that remains in the northern Gulf will slowly
ease back in early next week with the advent of surface high
pressure developing in the eastern Gulf. Onshore flow develops
leading to moisture advection and increasing PW values (1.8"-2.2")
for at least the southern half of the CWA. There is a little
uncertainty on this though since all three of the global models
offer different solutions (ECMWF doesn`t bring in the deep moisture
at all). Ended up only using "likely" PoPs for the Gulf waters since
the moisture should at least make it to the coastline. Uncertainty
with PoPs goes into next week as a cold front attempts to push
through SE Texas. Temperatures prior to this will be right around
normal with highs in the uppers 80s/low 90s and lows in the 70s.

Oh FROPA, FROPA! Wherefore art thou, FROPA? That is the magic
question isn`t it. Well...there is increasing confidence that a cold
front will make its way into SE Texas midweek. Global models are in
consensus that the cold front will be on the doorstep of our
northern counties on Wednesday morning, but things diverge a little
bit after that. The upper-level trough driving the cold front is
much deeper on the 00z runs of the ECMWF and Canadian, thus the cold
front pushes through. On the 00z GFS, a cutoff low develops over the
Northern Plains which keeps the trough from deepening far enough
south to push the front all the way through or washes it out as it
passes through. There is consistency though that with moisture out
ahead of the front, the convergence along the frontal boundary will
lead to showers/thunderstorms as it pushes in. After Wednesday
afternoon, PoPs are uncertain since the ECMWF/Canadian dry us out
following FROPA, while the GFS leaves lingering moisture over the
area as the front washes out. Going with 20% PoPs for now through
Thursday. Did a little wishcasting on Wednesday night and Thursday
night and went a few degrees below guidance to suggest that I`m
onboard with the front making it through. There won`t be significant
cold air behind the front, but I think we could at least see low 60s
overnight for our northern counties. Speaking things into existence
works right?

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

MVFR/IFR ST deck expanding west across the area this morning should
linger into the 14-16z timeframe before rising and scattering out.
Some brief patchy fog also possible at the outlying TAF sights. VFR
at most sites by 18z or earlier. The threat for fog returns after
06z across the northern sites with favorable radiational cooling
profile.
45

&&

.MARINE...

Light northerly winds will continue to prevail through the end of
the week before becoming southeasterly as high pressure builds
in the eastern Gulf. Onshore flow and isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday through next week
as Gulf moisture increases. Onshore flow becomes increasingly
moderate over the weekend leading to a slight rise in wave heights
(increasing to 3-4 feet) going into early next week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 90 72 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 86 72 91 74 91 / 20 10 20 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 88 79 87 / 20 10 20 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[txbear]

I wish. Only 10 of my 47 years (not counting vacations & summers). Spent many a long, gray, drizzly winter up in the DFW Metroplex once we moved to Texas.

Where all have you lived? I’ve only lived in southeast TX my entire life so this is pretty much all I know. I’ve yet to even go to Florida lol

Florida (Freeze of '83), then Savannah, GA (Hurricanes Kate & Bob, Freeze of '85 at 3 degrees), then Plano (1989&1990 freezes), Birmingham (1993 Superstorm with 16"), Lubbock (1997 High Plains Super-Outbreak), Dallas, and then back and forth between here and there before staying here in 2005. We do spend a lot of time in Florida as we have a place down there to visit whenever time allows us to go. Not as much as I would like.

I remember the 1997 tornado season. Jarrell was that year then the panhandle went bananas on down into the Big Country and Concho Valley. The sirens got a bit of a workout.

[Kingwood36]

TV guys are saying that cold front will make here next Wednesday

[DoctorMu]

TV guys are saying that cold front will make here next Wednesday

Seeing the front on GFS, Euro, and Canadian. Canadian brings even cooler air than GFS. Low Thursday of 49°F in CLL area. Will believe that when it happens!