weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:34 am
This is neither here, nor there, but quite a few folks were diminishing the risk. It is always easy to Monday morning quarter-back and I'm not even one who was diminishing.
lol, this isn't being an arm chair quarterback. Yesterday the NHC came out with a good wind forecast for the Houston metro area and put up a Tropical Storm Warning for Harris County and rightfully so. This met also said the NHC was being a bit bullish, maybe just to get peoples attention? Maybe someone can find that one.lol I wouldn't even bring this up but a crap load of people think this met hung the moon so needs to watch the wording IMO.
"Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though."
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:34 am
This is neither here, nor there, but quite a few folks were diminishing the risk. It is always easy to Monday morning quarter-back and I'm not even one who was diminishing.
lol, this isn't being an arm chair quarterback. Yesterday the NHC came out with a good wind forecast for the Houston metro area and put up a Tropical Storm Warning for Harris County and rightfully so. This met also said the NHC was being a bit bullish, maybe just to get peoples attention? Maybe someone can find that one.lol I wouldn't even bring this up but a crap load of people think this met hung the moon so needs to watch the wording IMO.
"Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though."
I understand what you're saying. I just know that there were many on this forum dismissing the probabilities and, technically, Harris County did not even see sustained tropical-storm force winds. Like some others have echoed - easy to forget how powerful wind can be.
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:52 am
Shear saved our butts for sure. This would have been a really bad event otherwise. Good trial run for the inevitable real deal that will eventually come some day.
Yes Shear did save us, it just another example how a storm can intensify quickly in our region. if not for shear this could have easly been a cat 2 or 3.
its still made it to a cat 1 dealing with the conditions it had.
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:46 am
Turn on the news and of course we have folks driving around to report on how things fared in Katy. Why don't yall head about 50 miles southeast? It's so silly.
I'm ticked off at how quick the greedy local TV stations bailed on coverage overnight and now. Other than a brief update, post-midnight when it was coming ashore and peaking on the south and southeast of the metro I could only find online for 2 was streaming vid of someone driving around, 13 had a cam of a light pole with rain, KHOU was running a minute loop of some maps (starting to get stale) and radar. Can't find any live broadcast online now, I guess they pulled the plug after the Harris County judge spoke. I don't have any of their stupid apps, so don't know if they're still live on those with any actual content beyond a few graphics.
Not bad on rainfall for Houston 4-5”/Beaumont 6-7” at all thanks to the wind shear. May be a different story for Louisiana though. ANNNNND…..as I write this a transformer blew and my power is out. Great! Not much rain anymore but the winds are kicking in Beaumont. Stay safe everyone!
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The GFS sure had this system covered! Some didn't like its modeling for it, but even covered the reformations! One other model was not good at all for it, especially for the rain forecast! Maybe some people don't like posting a forecast or opinion about it, because of the risk of being called out for a wrong forecast. Can't get it right all the time! NHC is amazing at what they do for sure...
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:34 am
This is neither here, nor there, but quite a few folks were diminishing the risk. It is always easy to Monday morning quarter-back and I'm not even one who was diminishing.
lol, this isn't being an arm chair quarterback. Yesterday the NHC came out with a good wind forecast for the Houston metro area and put up a Tropical Storm Warning for Harris County and rightfully so. This met also said the NHC was being a bit bullish, maybe just to get peoples attention? Maybe someone can find that one.lol I wouldn't even bring this up but a crap load of people think this met hung the moon so needs to watch the wording IMO.
"Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though."
Yes, that is the purpose of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning. To get people's attention! In an age when the cell phone goes off with a fake warning a few times a day, we're having difficulty recognizing real warnings and potential crises.
djmike wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:20 am
Not bad on rainfall for Houston 4-5”/Beaumont 6-7” at all thanks to the wind shear. May be a different story for Louisiana though. ANNNNND…..as I write this a transformer blew and my power is out. Great! Not much rain anymore but the winds are kicking in Beaumont. Stay safe everyone!
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TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:27 am
The GFS sure had this system covered! Some didn't like its modeling for it, but even covered the reformations! One other model was not good at all for it, especially for the rain forecast! Maybe some people don't like posting a forecast or opinion about it, because of the risk of being called out for a wrong forecast. Can't get it right all the time! NHC is amazing at what they do for sure...
I agree. This model has COME a long way since Ike.
Does anyone have the long term on the system just off of Africa? I saw somewhere that it's projected to be a major just north of the islands in about a week.
All things considered ( and I am not downplaying the bumpy ride my hometown of Santa Fe and others down south had), we were fortunate. Then wind shear of 10-20 kts sure saved us more headache. He was trying to ramp up quickly and that shear saved us ( if save is the correct word). The Hurricane season is not over, so do not let your guard down. Make sure your kits are stocked and your plans are still in place.
vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:52 am
Does anyone have the long term on the system just off of Africa? I saw somewhere that it's projected to be a major just north of the islands in about a week.
The 2 big models show that wave dissipating around or north of the islands as of the 0 and 6z runs. Still way early in the game for the waves though and lots can and will change!
TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:27 am
The GFS sure had this system covered! Some didn't like its modeling for it, but even covered the reformations! One other model was not good at all for it, especially for the rain forecast! Maybe some people don't like posting a forecast or opinion about it, because of the risk of being called out for a wrong forecast. Can't get it right all the time! NHC is amazing at what they do for sure...
yep it was said it the GFS was performing poorly and that teh Euro had the better handle on the storm. GFS has been the better model this year, Euro seems off.
Im surprised our wind gusts here in Beaumont if the CoC is still near Houston. Local mets are showing 40mph gusts in some areas. Power is back on but keeps popping off every so often so Im sure it will eventually go out for good. So thankful the floods didnt happen. I was getting really concerned for the Golden Triangle as we are the Mecca for Extreme flooding last few storms. Thank you shear!
TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:27 am
The GFS sure had this system covered! Some didn't like its modeling for it, but even covered the reformations! One other model was not good at all for it, especially for the rain forecast! Maybe some people don't like posting a forecast or opinion about it, because of the risk of being called out for a wrong forecast. Can't get it right all the time! NHC is amazing at what they do for sure...
yep it was said it the GFS was performing poorly and that teh Euro had the better handle on the storm. GFS has been the better model this year, Euro seems off.
While I do agree the GFS has been better than the Euro this year.Sometimes there tends to by a little hyperbole when it come to talking about how good or bad a particular model performed.The reality is that most of the time things end up somewhere in the middle when it comes to global model performance.The EURO did a better job when it came to detecting that we would get TC genesis in the first place.While at the same time the GFS was showing just a wave moving inland.On the other hand in the shorter range the GFS did a better job in regards to the track and strength of Nicholas.As the EURO was too far west and weak with Nicholas.
But it really isn't a case of one model wins and the other model loses,they both had pros and cons during the storm.Which is usually the case 90% of the time.
djmike wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:01 pm
Maybe a stupid question, but…is it possible Nicholas could strengthen a bit or maintain current status going near galveston bay? Just curious .
No the circulation is too disrupted at this point from land interaction and wind shear for it to restrengthen.Its not a stupid question though,while rare some storms have strengthen over inland bodies of water such as swamplands and lakes.
djmike wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:01 pm
Maybe a stupid question, but…is it possible Nicholas could strengthen a bit or maintain current status going near galveston bay? Just curious .
No the circulation is too disrupted at this point from land interaction and wind shear for it to restrengthen.Its not a stupid question though,while rare some storms have strengthen over inland bodies of water such as swamplands and lakes.
Thanks for answering. Just curious. Ive heard about over swamplands and saw the Bay is awfully close to the center. Thanks for answering.
