September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Cpv17]

So what sort of rainfall totals can we expect in the Houston metro?

That was for the last track. That will change with the new track.

[Scott747]

New recon mission is on the way and should be there in a few hours.

[djmike]

If were already over 1.5” of rain in Beaumont already and just started pouring again, Im afraid to see how much more we get from Nicholas being so waterlogged already.

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[captainbarbossa19]

If were already over 1.5” of rain in Beaumont already and just started pouring again, Im afraid to see how much more we get from Nicholas being so waterlogged already.
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I hear you. I don't like making comparisons to Imelda, but I remember driving to school the day before she hit, and the ditches were already full from rain. I remember thinking that it would be crazy if they did not cancel school. They finally did, but it was 3 in the morning!

Edit: No one inside or outside of town could get there at that point. Lol.

[Scott747]

18z GFS looks like it's initialized exactly where the 4pm advisory was.

[Cpv17]

Also despite all the bashing of the GFS and praise of the Euro....

The NHC for now is siding with the GFS and HWRF. Hence the reason for the hurricane watch.

I’ve noticed the Euro does pretty well on track but not so much on strength. The GFS has done better in that department imo.

[Scott747]

Welp. The GFS is bouncing around like a ping pong ball. Looks like the 12z Euro one minute and switches back to the previous GFS runs.

[Scott747]

Also despite all the bashing of the GFS and praise of the Euro....

The NHC for now is siding with the GFS and HWRF. Hence the reason for the hurricane watch.

I’ve noticed the Euro does pretty well on track but not so much on strength. The GFS has done better in that department imo.

There was some small scale 'upgrades' about 18 months ago (could be off on timing) that the Euro underwent. Since then it hasn't been near as reliable as it was for so long.

[weatherguy425]

Welp. The GFS is bouncing around like a ping pong ball. Looks like the 12z Euro one minute and switches back to the previous GFS runs.

18Z is further west with landfall and, actually, more intact structurally.

[don]

18Z GFS Showing a strong tropical storm or category 1 into Matagorda, and then traveling the I-59 corridor east/northeast.

[Cpv17]

With that latest GFS run, that gives me more confidence that more of southeast Texas is going to receive some big time rains, not just the coastal areas.

[don]

Tropical storm watch issued from HGX.Also the WPC already has parts of the area under a Moderate risk for excessive rainfall.

Nicholas Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL142021
409 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

TXZ213-130515-
/O.EXA.KHGX.TR.A.1014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Inland Harris-
409 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Houston
- Kingwood
- Spring

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 6-10 inches, with locally
higher amounts

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Hurricane Preparedness: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- http://ready.gov/hurricanes
- Local weather conditions and forecasts: NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
- http://www.weather.gov/hgx/

[dp6]

GFS with a hurricane at Matagorda tracking west of Houston.

We may finally get a "Yes" for, "I'm in Katy, should I evacuate?"....

[Cpv17]

I wouldn’t evacuate for a strong tropical storm or cat 1 hurricane unless you’re maybe right along the coast. Just my opinion.

[dp6]

It was a joke.

[DoctorMu]

GFS - right up Hwy 59. Closer to HRRR. Will we NW areas see a lot of rain? remains to be seen. 1-2 inches with GFS solution. More if NWC is correct

[Cpv17]

After just taking a look at the 12z EPS, the op has some support with a stall or very slow movement. Many members of the EPS are showing this solution.

[Andrew]

Nicholas still looks pretty elongated/weak right now with southwesterly shear still impacting the storm. Recon is heading into the storm now so we will see what they find.

[don]

18Z GFS showing wind gust possibly as high as 60+ mph as far north as the I-10 corridor.

[Cpv17]

18Z GFS showing wind gust possibly as high as 60+ mph as far north as the I-10 corridor.

Geez, alright GFS. Cat 1 force winds right on top of me.