September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Cpv17]

If the Euro run comes close to even verifying then the Colorado River is going to be going into record flood stage and Wharton will be underwater once again.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 this would absolutely be devastating, I dont even want to think of the anount of damage this would cause in central texas

[Ptarmigan]

David Roth
@DRmetwatch
A reminder that certain pieces of model guidance can be prone to ramping up precipitable water values much too fast and much too high. #HighBias. The left example is from today, the right example is from 2018. #ExtremelyImprobableForecast

https://twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/1 ... 6506184704

[djmike]

So models shifted west some? Hopefully that gives the Golden Triangle a more manageable level of rain then the 15-20”.

[Pas_Bon]

So models shifted west some? Hopefully that gives the Golden Triangle a more manageable level of rain then the 15-20”.

I don’t think where it makes landfall will matter much for the Houston -> Beaumont sector
The expectation is still for it to meander up the TX coast and will bring heavy rains to SETX regardless of exact landfall location.

[Kingwood36]

Official track hasn't shifted ..just the euro

[weatherguy425]

Official track hasn't shifted ..just the euro

18Z Tropical Guidance is coming in a tad west as well, more noticeably, the northeast turn is muted.

[mcheer23]

Official track hasn't shifted ..just the euro

18Z Tropical Guidance is coming in a tad west as well, more noticeably, the northeast turn is muted.

I'm sure the 00Z guidance will swing back east, as the center seems to be reforming more northeast.

[don]

Official track hasn't shifted ..just the euro

18Z Tropical Guidance is coming in a tad west as well, more noticeably, the northeast turn is muted.

I'm sure the 00Z guidance will swing back east, as the center seems to be reforming more northeast.

[Texashawk]

Official track hasn't shifted ..just the euro

18Z Tropical Guidance is coming in a tad west as well, more noticeably, the northeast turn is muted.

Boy, that 72 hour mark has quite a variance between models. Not sure if that’s good or bad.

[snowman65]

Official track hasn't shifted ..just the euro

18Z Tropical Guidance is coming in a tad west as well, more noticeably, the northeast turn is muted.

that seems quite a bit west to me, plus the northerly tract and not hooking east..

[DoctorMu]

So, would boarding the windows be a good idea in Baytown?

This is a rainmaker mostly

Use the wood for a boat!

[don]

From Wxman57

Broad, elongated circulation. Still trying to get organized. I like 12Z Euro that takes it into NE Mexico then stalls east of San Antonio. Has 61+ inches of rain near La Grange. Last run had 25-30" just SW of Houston. GFS rain looks more reasonable. Still thinking moderate TS with only a small area of strong winds NE-E of the center making landfall near or just west of Matagorda Bay early Tuesday. Winds in Houston likely 20-30 mph with higher gusts in thunderstorms Tuesday.

[snowman65]

i see this thing stalling on top of us in GT for days...

[DoctorMu]

Official track hasn't shifted ..just the euro

This. GFS totals look more likely. We'll see.

[Stormlover2020]

Sunday 2PM Tropical Update: Be prepared for some changes to the forecast track coming out at 4PM.

The center appears to be consolidating about 95 miles to the north-northeast of the last known center fix. If this center takes over, it will cause the track to shift more eastward, the landfall timing to speed up, and the rate of intensification may quicken.

The computer models that ran earlier today did not have recon flight data ingested into them, and they likely missed the new center that is forming. In other words, we can't put too much faith in the precise rain totals and wind speeds for your location because the path will adjust.

Recon flight data will go into the computer models runs this evening, and if they correctly ingest the new center, that will give us more confidence in the computer model output.

Stay tuned.

abc13.com/tropicalupdate

[Kingwood36]

So where would it put it now if the center is reforming more towards the North East

[Texashawk]

I feel interesting times are just ahead.

[Stratton20]

So in short term, the models dont know whats going to happen l

[Cpv17]

Official track hasn't shifted ..just the euro

18Z Tropical Guidance is coming in a tad west as well, more noticeably, the northeast turn is muted.

I'm sure the 00Z guidance will swing back east, as the center seems to be reforming more northeast.

You may be right but I hope not lol