Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:25 am
Yeah no the GFS is performing poorly with this system and has a strong bias here and I believe its 12z solution is one to consider tossing in the trash as I see this storm going inland as a weaker system , I do not think it is very reliable at the moment, im siding with the Euro solution here as its been more consistent
While the solution may not be correct, there isn’t really much evidence to suggest it is “out to lunch” or has a strong eastward bias, per say.
Yeah - How can a model be performing poorly when the storm is not even organized yet?
There are a few different ways that a model can be performing poorly prior to genesis.
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:09 pm
For the record, NHC experimental model HAFS-B (06Z), has a more concentrated circulation that previous runs; making initial landfall near Port O’Connor, then riding the coast up to San Luis Pass, then more northward over the general Houston Metro.
That track would bring rain to mostly east of Houston into LA. No thanks.
Yeah - How can a model be performing poorly when the storm is not even organized yet?
There are a few different ways that a model can be performing poorly prior to genesis.
But there won't be direct evidence until after genesis.
True, but one’s training with atmospheric dynamics, pattern recognition, etc. can lead one to spot a model’s “issue” before genesis. We can’t always wait.
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:09 pm
For the record, NHC experimental model HAFS-B (06Z), has a more concentrated circulation that previous runs; making initial landfall near Port O’Connor, then riding the coast up to San Luis Pass, then more northward over the general Houston Metro.
That track would bring rain to mostly east of Houston into LA. No thanks.
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:09 pm
For the record, NHC experimental model HAFS-B (06Z), has a more concentrated circulation that previous runs; making initial landfall near Port O’Connor, then riding the coast up to San Luis Pass, then more northward over the general Houston Metro.
That track would bring rain to mostly east of Houston into LA. No thanks.
Not necessarily.
It would be crickets for the western half of the viewing area except for along the coast. Well compared to points east of me anyway.
1. A tropical wave and an upper-level trough continue to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions
of southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico.
Although upper-level winds are not conducive for development
currently, they are expected to become more favorable for the system
during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form
on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and
then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further
development will be possible through the middle of next week if it
remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern
Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
tomorrow.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach
portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and
Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant
rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of
flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Quite frankly there isn't that much difference between the op Euro and GFS. Euro is a little faster and weaker and the speed of the storm could have impacts on any landfall or delayed landfall to the ne. Neither should be tossed and both are extremely plausible. One other thing to keep in mind with the potential track that both are showing is the orientation of the mid and up through the upper texas coast with a n and then possible nne movement is significant.
Scott747 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:46 pm
Quite frankly there isn't that much difference between the op Euro and GFS. Euro is a little faster and weaker and the speed of the storm could have impacts on any landfall or delayed landfall to the ne. Neither should be tossed and both are extremely plausible. One other thing to keep in mind with the potential track that both are showing is the orientation of the mid and up through the upper texas coast with a n and then possible nne movement is significant.
Wouldn’t that create a trailing inflow channel on the southern flank of the storm resulting in a training band?
Scott747 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:46 pm
Quite frankly there isn't that much difference between the op Euro and GFS. Euro is a little faster and weaker and the speed of the storm could have impacts on any landfall or delayed landfall to the ne. Neither should be tossed and both are extremely plausible. One other thing to keep in mind with the potential track that both are showing is the orientation of the mid and up through the upper texas coast with a n and then possible nne movement is significant.
Wouldn’t that create a trailing inflow channel on the southern flank of the storm resulting in a training band?
Hard to say. With dry air across texas it may disrupt the circulation and limit any banding. Modeling looks lopsided unless it stays a little further offshore with a robust circulation.
Just curious. Why do our storms always seem to want to stall just inland of our coast? Its been years since Ive ever seen a storm come ashore then progress on its same speed into central/northern Texas. They hit our coast, stall, then go NE. Just curious.
