September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Texaspirate11]

91L Looks like its going EAST of us as of 8 a.m.

[weatherguy425]

91L Looks like its going EAST of us as of 8 a.m.

Certainly possible. But, polygons within the NHC outlooks do not imply path, rather that a system could form somewhere within the polygon and forecast period.

[don]

FWIW the 0Z Euro moved back west to the Texas coast last night

[Kingwood36]

FWIW the 0Z Euro moved back west to the Texas coast last night

Looks like a sloppy mess

[Stratton20]

FWIW the 06 GFS is already picking up on another system tight after 91L

[DoctorMu]

FWIW the 0Z Euro moved back west to the Texas coast last night

Looks like a sloppy mess

Just the way I like my tropical systems.

[Scott747]

That 6z system is independent of 91l and comes from yet another hybrid/pseudo set-up in the Caribbean. I'd have to look a little closer but I can't find the wave that triggers this one plus it originates more off of SA. The GFS has already been hinting at it but was burying it in the southern BoC so it isn't coming out of nowhere and is in a range that can't be immediately dismissed.

We'll see in the subsequent runs today if it was a one off or continues back to the southern end solution.

My best guess is that the GFS is developing it from association with this wave and the trailing convection (not the axis itself) beginning mid week in the central Caribbean

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave with an axis along 70W, extends from
Hispaniola to NW Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted E of the wave, S
of 15N between 61W and 70W. Fresh trades are occurring on both
sides of this wave.

Won't get into the long range modeling as it will likely show a significant system with the favorable setup.

[Iceresistance]

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance definitely gotta keep a close eye on the GFS, this is now consecutive model runs in a row to show a strong system

[Cromagnum]

Nearly 2 weeks out. That being said, we are in the heart of the season so keep guards up.

[Scott747]

Now back to 91l....

The experimental hurricane model *which I'm developing a love/hate relationship with * on its 6z run had 91l missing the trough and eventually moving back w as ridging builds in. This would be the same ridging that would track whatever comes of the as yet unidentified area in the mid to long range of the GFS towards the western gulf.

[Cpv17]

A couple weeks ago the GFS was showing 91L as a potential major in the Gulf with ideal conditions….

[weatherguy425]

The 12Z ECMWF has it catching the trough and moving northeast as does the 12Z GFS and most ensemble members.

[Cpv17]

The GEFS isn’t too enthusiastic about that next wave after 91L. We’ll see what the Euro and its ensembles say here shortly.

[Stratton20]

Eu we might as well just turn our attention to what may happen late next week, 91l isnt our problem definitely hoping it avoids Lousiana though

[don]

Yep, NEXT lol.

[weatherguy425]

I don’t think next week’s forecast is set-in-stone just yet, but a local impact remains the more unlikely scenario.

[Cpv17]

Eu we might as well just turn our attention to what may happen late next week, 91l isnt our problem definitely hoping it avoids Lousiana though

Not sure the next system will be much of anything. Doesn’t have much ensemble support right now. At least not from the GEFS.

[weatherguy425]

For the first time, ECMWF shows “development”. But, like the CMC, it’s in the BOC.

In regards to 91L, it still gets somewhat stuck/suppressed by the building ridge... it’s just after landfall on this run.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 I know but its something worth watching for aure