September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[TexasBreeze]

Gonna have multiple pits fired up, a pool, and great food smoking for the football kickoff!!!

[DoctorMu]

This summer wasn’t that bad compared to most.

I know several people whose homes flooded with no heat or power last winter. Every season has its pros and cons. Personally I’m hoping this summer season hangs on a bit longer so my pool will heat up. Can’t heat it for two weeks after we fill it.

I noticed the NWS noted the beginning of the meteorological fall in their AFD. I wish the local TV mets would also educate the public.

Summer's only gotten bad like...NOW. As we have to deal with a post-hurricane ridge. Really feeling for the foks in NOLA with the prolonged power outage. It looks like some power has been restored beginning last night.

The ridge continues to dominate through and peaking during the weekend. Maybe an unorganized depression around the 8-10th - on both GFS and Canadian, fwiw.

High index folks! Stay hydrated, in shade, and where cool or inside when and where you can!



Split decision on relief with Ensembles. GEPS - no, GEFS - yes

Pfft. With a 7 pm kickoff Saturday, it will be a 14 hour tailgate!

Bringing 5 industrial fans and drip drop IV packs to the tailgate Saturday, just in case.

All you'll need is the sun and a bit of sidewalk to cook eggs and fajitas!

[Stratton20]

18z GFS develops a weak system around the 7th or 8th and then slowly drifts it inland in SE Texas

[Andrew]

The 12Z GFS does show some energy try to lift north from the BOC with a little more support from the ensembles but still seems like a low probability at this time. From a synoptical standpoint, the MJO looks less favorable and most models indicate any ITCZ action will likely stay further south and across the Eastern Pacific. Still, something to monitor as we are near the peak of the hurricane season.

It may just bring us an increase in moisture. That seems plausible.

I hope so. Models have been dry for the next 7-10 days across most of Texas so some tropical moisture could be nice assuming it stays weak.

[DoctorMu]

Got a grass saving fluke pop up shower this evening.

GFS persists with some weakness in the ridge next week and tropical moisture. 30-40% chance of rain in CLL next week, but disagreement then and next week. GFS has a back door front approaching the area. Canadian as well with less precip. Could trigger a 20% chance of showers tomorrow.

Canadian has something tropical organized coming ashore in SETX about the 9th next week.



Euro sees something weaker, then builds the ridge. Ensembles don't see much rain after today, except for the coast, until the 10th and later. We'll see.

[Texaspirate11]

Anytime a model wants to wipe us out first, it moves to LA it seems

[captainbarbossa19]

I could be wrong, but I think the chances of seeing something form are higher than nothing at all. Climatology would say watch out at the minimum. Another problem I could see is something weak and slow moving end up forming (Imelda). I hope I am wrong about a slow moving system. I just do not think that it is going to be completely quiet for the Gulf heading towards September 10.

[Cromagnum]

Meanwhile, our old pal Ida is flooding the hell out of New York and New Jersey.

[Stratton20]

00z CMC and GFS runs continue to spin something up next weekend

[davidiowx]

Still showing something out here. CMC says hello SE Louisiana again..

[tireman4]

Meanwhile, the Ranch beckons....


000
FXUS64 KHGX 021133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

In the near term, MVFR to LIFR conditions are developing mainly
west of I-45 due to shallow fog and low-clouds. Fog and low
clouds should gradually diminish/dissipate by early to mid
morning. The next aviation concern is the chance of showers and
thunderstorms, first along the coast, then inland. The best
moisture axis is located south of I-10 and into our southwestern
counties. Therefore, have only included VCTS for terminals south
of KIAH. Models and SREF probabilities are once again hinting at
reduced visibility and/or low clouds later tonight into early
Friday, mainly over KCLL, KUTS and KCXO. 05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 344 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021/...



.SHORT TERM [through Friday Night]...

Typical summer weather pattern is expected today with isolated
coastal showers in the morning and scattered thunderstorms inland in
the afternoon.

Mostly clear skies, light winds and low-level moisture have led to
areas of shallow fog along portions of the Brazos Valley and the
Victoria Crossroads. Areas east of Conroe (towards Liberty and Polk
counties) are also developing some fog early this morning. This fog
is expected to dissipate by early morning as daytime boundary layer
mixing occurs.

Mid to upper level ridge anchored over northwest TX remains in
control while at the surface south to southeast winds bring more
Gulf moisture into the region. The best moisture axis seems to
remain along and south of I-10, with PWATs into the 1.9-2.2 inch
range. Low-level moisture, daytime heating and seabreezes will allow
for our typical afternoon thunderstorm activity inland.
Showers/storms should diminish around sunset. It is going to be hot
and humid with highs from the mid to upper 90s and afternoon heat
index from 103 to 107 degrees.

A tranquil night is expected across most of the region. Some patchy
shallow fog may again be possible into daybreak Friday, mainly west
of I-45. Isolated coastal showers are again expected near daybreak.
Hot weather continues on Friday with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Moisture looks confined for areas south of I-10, with
better focus across our southwestern counties. Therefore, have added
better rain/storm chances for these locations. 05


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

Still looking at a warm/hot and drier weekend as high pressure builds
across the area. Cannot totally rule out isolated afternoon shower and
thunderstorm development, but the vast majority of the area will stay
dry. Most inland locations will see highs in the mid to upper 90s, and
a spot or two could top out at 100. For the first half of next week,
it still looks like mid level high pressure will build out west with
general trofiness out east. This pattern should allow for possible
shower and thunderstorm development as increasing moisture levels
interact with a weak southward sagging front/boundary. The increase
in rain chances and associated clouds should help to shave several
degrees off the afternoon highs.

We`ll also continue to monitor the southern Gulf waters for possible
tropical development (NHC`s 1 AM CDT Tropical Weather Outlook has
formation chance at only 20% over the next five days). Moisture partly
associated with this system could eventually end up working its way
into the central and northern Gulf, and any tropical organization
(depending on its strength and location) could result in some forecast
changes for our area. The peak of the hurricane season is coming, so
please continue to keep an eye on the latest available Tropical Weather
Outlook from the NHC. 42


.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and low seas will persist
through the start of next week. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
each day this through the end of the week. Over the weekend, high pressure
settles in and drier air will keep rain chances low. Early next week,
showers and thunderstorms return as high pressure retreats to the northwest
and allows a plume of tropical moisture from the Gulf to push into the
area. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 95 76 97 76 97 / 20 20 20 0 10
Houston (IAH) 94 77 96 77 97 / 30 10 30 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 91 82 91 / 30 20 40 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[tireman4]

NWS take on the Tropics..


We`ll also continue to monitor the southern Gulf waters for possible
tropical development (NHC`s 1 AM CDT Tropical Weather Outlook has
formation chance at only 20% over the next five days). Moisture partly
associated with this system could eventually end up working its way
into the central and northern Gulf, and any tropical organization
(depending on its strength and location) could result in some forecast
changes for our area. The peak of the hurricane season is coming, so
please continue to keep an eye on the latest available Tropical Weather
Outlook from the NHC. 42

[DoctorMu]

GFS, CMC, ICON, Ensembles don't little rain until the middle of the month.

HEAT is the 4-letter word for the end of this week and weekend.

Stay thermal and COVID safe!

[Stormlover2020]

Real troughy!! Think hurricane season could be done for us

[cperk]

Real troughy!! Think hurricane season could be done for us

I absolutely disagree we are not even at the peak of the season yet.

[mcheer23]

Real troughy!! Think hurricane season could be done for us

I absolutely disagree we are not even at the peak of the season yet.

Yeah, strongly disagree with that statement...

[tireman4]

Real troughy!! Think hurricane season could be done for us

I absolutely disagree we are not even at the peak of the season yet.

Yeah, strongly disagree with that statement...

I strongly agree with the disagreement. I remember an old board member, on S2K and here called for a Season Cancel ( I wont call him out..LOL) before....Ike...well, we know what happened there. There have been September hurricanes that have caused havok ( Ike, 1900 Storm, 1941 Hurricane). Never let your guard down.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021658
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1158 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

.AVIATION...
Area of moderate llvl speed convergence developed near the coast
earlier this morning (& where the highest moisture availability
was located) which allowed for a broken band of shra/tstms to
develop. Look for these to spread a bit further inland to the
metro area with daytime heating and as the sea/baybreeze gets going.
We`ll probably see some iso development further north of CXO with
time, but overall coverage shouldn`t be as much. Fcst soundings
again depict an inverted-v profile, and like previous days,
20-35mph gusts cannot be ruled out near the strongest cells. VFR
conditions will be the rule outside of the convection.

Precip should wane toward sunset and the loss of heating. SREF did
a good job with the areas of MVFR fog development last night
(mainly north of I-10), and is depicting about the same scenario
again late tonight & early Fri morning so planning to follow
that. Look for another convergent zone to set up near the coast in
the early morning hours and some sct shra/tstm development...which
should follow about the same pattern we`re seeing today. Maybe a
little less coverage, but probably more than some guidance is
indicating considering 2.0-2.2" lingering along & south of the
I-10 corridor. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 97 76 97 / 20 20 20 0 10
Houston (IAH) 96 77 96 77 97 / 40 10 30 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 91 82 91 / 20 20 40 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[Stormlover2020]

Models trying to push a cold front to us if that happens then it’s ball game

[Stratton20]

Stormlover2020 not necessarily, beta was originally being blocked from coming west by a cold front, but then that front weakened and allowed beta to make landfall in Texas, this hurricane season is most definitely not over for us yet