September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[don]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the southern
Caribbean Sea over the next several days. Environmental conditions
appear to be favorable for some slow development by the end of the
week, as long as the system remains over water. This system is
expected to move gradually west-northwestward or northwestward at 5
to 10 mph over the western Caribbean Sea close to the east coast of
Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[redneckweather]

As of now, not much showing up in the models with this system thankfully. Almost time to start looking for that first cool front.

[Stratton20]

redneckweather we will see, sometimes models dont pick up on systems until they are beginning to form, this has a decently favorable environment to work with so i wouldnt be shocked if this develops, unfortunately we will have to wait anothwr 30 days at least for a “fall” front

[srainhoutx]

redneckweather we will see, sometimes models dont pick up on systems until they are beginning to form, this has a decently favorable environment to work with so i wouldnt be shocked if this develops, unfortunately we will have to wait anothwr 30 days at least for a “fall” front

Not so sure about having to wait 30 days...

[Stratton20]

srainhoutx thats over 9 days out, im taking that with a grain of salt IMO, im not buying it until it shows up inside the 7 day range

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx thats over 9 days out, im taking that with a grain of salt IMO, im not buying it until it shows up inside the 7 day range

Kind of like that tropical mischief threat...

[tireman4]

redneckweather we will see, sometimes models dont pick up on systems until they are beginning to form, this has a decently favorable environment to work with so i wouldnt be shocked if this develops, unfortunately we will have to wait anothwr 30 days at least for a “fall” front

Not so sure about having to wait 30 days...

Bring it, oh Long Range Forecaster. I say..woo hoo

[Cpv17]

I just want some rain. Don’t really care about fronts or tc’s too much. Just give me some heavy rainstorms and I’m happy lol

[Stratton20]

srainhoutx hey im just saying we have seen many times that the models show a good cold front in the long range, and then it ends up not happening, thats why im not buying into it yet

[Kingwood36]

Bring it!

[TXWeatherMan]

srainhoutx hey im just saying we have seen many times that the models show a good cold front in the long range, and then it ends up not happening, thats why im not buying into it yet

But you seem pretty enthusiastic when the models show a tropical system 10+ days out, when in reality it’s very rare models are right that far out. I do agree the front is too far out to buy into yet though.

[weatherguy425]

srainhoutx thats over 9 days out, im taking that with a grain of salt IMO, im not buying it until it shows up inside the 7 day range

Kind of like that tropical mischief threat...

To be fair, looking at the setup, it is worth watching for Gulf/BOC activity.

[Cpv17]

srainhoutx thats over 9 days out, im taking that with a grain of salt IMO, im not buying it until it shows up inside the 7 day range

Kind of like that tropical mischief threat...

To be fair, looking at the setup, it is worth watching for Gulf/BOC activity.

It seems like the EPS has lost a lot of support for it the past few runs.

[Stratton20]

we will see what happens in the coming days, I will take a front though, this heat sucks

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx thats over 9 days out, im taking that with a grain of salt IMO, im not buying it until it shows up inside the 7 day range

Kind of like that tropical mischief threat...

To be fair, looking at the setup, it is worth watching for Gulf/BOC activity.

Oh absolutely! There's still about 15 days or so before Upper Texas Coast climatology kicks in and the chances diminish. As for cool fronts, they are coming and the long wait to see summer end is much closer as the calendar moves to September.

[redneckweather]

That is a beautiful map srain and thanks for posting. My son was pointing that out to me yesterday evening.

Some people don't like to see fronts during the heart of hurricane season.lol

[weatherguy425]

Kind of like that tropical mischief threat...

To be fair, looking at the setup, it is worth watching for Gulf/BOC activity.

It seems like the EPS has lost a lot of support for it the past few runs.

True and development isn’t a sure thing. But, it’s important to look at what is happening in the atmosphere, aside from what is modeled. An area of lower pressure/vorticity is forecast to move out of the Gulf of Honduras. That part is a sure thing. A passing Kelvin Wave may still be having an impact in this region of the basin. In addition, water temperatures remain quite warm.

Land interaction and increasing wind shear with latitude could be a problem. Some models have also suggested another ULL could produce shear over the southern Gulf as well.

We’ll see.

[Cpv17]

To be fair, looking at the setup, it is worth watching for Gulf/BOC activity.

It seems like the EPS has lost a lot of support for it the past few runs.

True and development isn’t a sure thing. But, it’s important to look at what is happening in the atmosphere, aside from what is modeled. An area of lower pressure/vorticity is forecast to move out of the Gulf of Honduras. That part is a sure thing. A passing Kelvin Wave may still be having an impact in this region of the basin. In addition, water temperatures remain quite warm.

Land interaction and increasing wind shear with latitude could be a problem. Some models have also suggested another ULL could produce shear over the southern Gulf as well.

We’ll see.

Thanks for taking the time to post. You should start posting more often.

[Stratton20]

12z CMC and GFS runs continue to hint at some tropical mischief next week, both show a sloppy system

[tireman4]

12z CMC and GFS runs continue to hint at some tropical mischief next week, both show a sloppy system

Dont you have class today, young man? LOL