September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Stratton20]

sambucol its possible it could, but it also might not either depending on *IF* something forms

[captainbarbossa19]

sambucol its possible it could, but it also might not either depending on *IF* something forms

The models also just recently overestimated the strength of the ridge with Ida, as she was originally supposed to head into Mexico. I am not buying into a strong ridge setup yet.

[Stratton20]

Captainbarbossa19 exactly!

[weatherguy425]

There are big question marks on where, if, when a system will form let alone what the steering patten would be. But, the ridge modeled on that image is not a sure bet to protect us on that model run; centered too far north.

[sambucol]

There are big question marks on where, if, when a system will form let along what the steering patten would be. But, the ridge modeled on that image is not a sure bet to protect us on that model run; centered too far north.

Thank you.

[DoctorMu]

Yes, thank you, Stratton, I know it’s a long way out, but was wondering if the ridge DoctorMu spoke of would be one to be over us, and protect our area, or be to the east of us if that model were to verify.

If the ridge is there it would block a TC.

[DoctorMu]

sambucol its possible it could, but it also might not either depending on *IF* something forms

The models also just recently overestimated the strength of the ridge with Ida, as she was originally supposed to head into Mexico. I am not buying into a strong ridge setup yet.

The models miss the timing re-establishing the ridge by a couple of days. That gap is where Ida has snuck into LA.

[TexasBreeze]

Models show a trailing trough from future remnant Ida reaching the coast giving some areas rain this week.

CMC and GFS 12z shows a system on our coastline hr 216 and 240. 7th and 8th of Sept.

[sambucol]

Models show a trailing trough from future remnant Ida reaching the coast giving some areas rain this week.

CMC and GFS 12z shows a system on our coastline hr 216 and 240. 7th and 8th of Sept.

Is the system it’s showing a hurricane?

[Stratton20]

CMC shows a potential for a hurricane while the GFS has a sloppy weak system approaching the texas coast next weekend ir early next week

[weatherguy425]

CMC shows a potential for a hurricane while the GFS has a sloppy weak system approaching the texas coast next weekend ir early next week

And ensemble guidance (more important at this stage) all over the place; Mexico to Florida. A lot to iron out over the next seven to ten days.

[captainbarbossa19]

CMC shows a potential for a hurricane while the GFS has a sloppy weak system approaching the texas coast next weekend ir early next week

And ensemble guidance (more important at this stage) all over the place; Mexico to Florida. A lot to iron out over the next seven to ten days.

That sounds a lot like the precursor to the storm we are watching right now. I could be wrong, but I just do not think that the season is over for Texas yet.

[weatherguy425]

CMC shows a potential for a hurricane while the GFS has a sloppy weak system approaching the texas coast next weekend ir early next week

And ensemble guidance (more important at this stage) all over the place; Mexico to Florida. A lot to iron out over the next seven to ten days.

That sounds a lot like the precursor to the storm we are watching right now. I could be wrong, but I just do not think that the season is over for Texas yet.

Risk really doesn’t start lessening (historically) until October.

[Stratton20]

Captainbarbossa19 plus the fact that IDA stayed in the central gulf means the western GOM has a lot of untapped upper oceanic heat energy, so if whatever may happen next week,*IF*it tracks into our part of the Gulf, if the shear is low we could have a problem

[captainbarbossa19]

The 18z GEFS has a lot more support for another Gulf system originating from the SW Caribbean. It starts forming in a few days.

[Cpv17]

The 18z GEFS has a lot more support for another Gulf system originating from the SW Caribbean. It starts forming in a few days.

I was literally just about to post that lol you beat me to it.

[ajurcat]

The 18z GEFS has a lot more support for another Gulf system originating from the SW Caribbean. It starts forming in a few days.

Y'all just stop this nonsense! We have a bay house on Carancahua Bay and would love to have the house stay there! Really stressed hearing Port Alto on the news about a possible Ida landfall. But, in reality, we know the possibilities. Praying that Texas stays safe this year and years to come

[captainbarbossa19]

The 18z GEFS has a lot more support for another Gulf system originating from the SW Caribbean. It starts forming in a few days.

I was literally just about to post that lol you beat me to it.

Lol. I guess I need to take a break from model watching, but I was really expecting Ida to originally be a Texas storm. I am glad it was not, but now my alarm bells are going off so I am constantly looking for new threats. Haha

[Stratton20]

Captainbarbossa19 and too think IDA started off as a very weak tropical wave, man we still got another month before we are safe , definitely concerned that IDA wont be the last major storm threat to the GOM

[Kingwood36]

Well our next potential system is marked and has a 20% chance through the next 5 days