TS Colin

[Scott747]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

Former 90l that was probably designated a little to early with the main energy (or spark) being a tropical wave catching up to the convective area over the ITCZ.

[Mr. T]

0z Euro sure is fun, isn't it?

The model continues to weaken heights over Texas while trying to rebuild a ridge over the SE in the day 7 - 10 period... Of course, sending Hurricane Colin our way, but that's 10 days away.

[srainhoutx]

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[wxman57]

Yes, the 00Z Euro is interesting. I found a great website with all the models in tropical view. Best version of the Euro I've seen:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html

Here's the 00Z Euro 10-day loop:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

Now I think there will be a quite significant trof along the east U.S. Coast by the time it gets there, so I don't think there will be a high center to push it all the way here. Let's hope so, anyway.

[srainhoutx]

Yes, the 00Z Euro is interesting. I found a great website with all the models in tropical view. Best version of the Euro I've seen:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html

Here's the 00Z Euro 10-day loop:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

Now I think there will be a quite significant trof along the east U.S. Coast by the time it gets there, so I don't think there will be a high center to push it all the way here. Let's hope so, anyway.

Speaking of Allan Huffman, here are his thoughts this morning...

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053 ... -to-the-US

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 011247
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1247 UTC SUN AUG 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100801 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100801  1200   100802  0000   100802  1200   100803  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.1N  35.4W    9.7N  36.9W   10.3N  39.0W   11.1N  41.8W
BAMD     9.1N  35.4W    9.7N  37.2W   10.4N  39.3W   11.4N  41.7W
BAMM     9.1N  35.4W    9.7N  37.4W   10.4N  39.8W   11.3N  42.6W
LBAR     9.1N  35.4W    9.5N  37.3W   10.0N  39.9W   10.9N  43.1W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          44KTS          55KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          44KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100803  1200   100804  1200   100805  1200   100806  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.0N  44.8W   14.4N  51.6W   17.3N  58.5W   20.1N  64.4W
BAMD    12.6N  44.3W   15.1N  49.3W   16.7N  53.7W   17.8N  56.8W
BAMM    12.5N  45.7W   15.6N  52.3W   18.9N  58.2W   21.8N  62.1W
LBAR    11.6N  46.8W   13.1N  53.6W   14.4N  58.1W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        67KTS          79KTS          80KTS          72KTS
DSHP        67KTS          79KTS          80KTS          72KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.1N LONCUR =  35.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =   8.9N LONM12 =  34.6W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =   8.7N LONM24 =  33.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$

[Mr. T]

There will be a slight oppurtunity for the storm to turn north before reaching Florida, possibly up the East Coast or out to sea, thanks to a slight weakness that will be developing around Bermuda and westward. However, as the Euro shows, this may only be enough to pull Colin northward initially before it is turned back west across Florida or through the Straits as heights begin to build again over the SE

That developing SE ridge (this summer's trademark) and the strength will determine how far westward Colin will go if it enters the GOM. It could even be strong enough to send Colin westward towards a similar landfall point of Hurricane Allen in 1980.

I do not see any kind of troughing being depicted by the GFS or Euro in the extended range that would help break down the stubborn ridge over the SE, so we'll need to watch this one closely.

[sleetstorm]

Welcome to the month of August everyone.

[StrmSpttr]

Welcome to the month of August everyone.

Yes Welcome to August...Football preseason starts in a couple of weeks and all storms need to stay out of the GOM. Thank You!!!! LOL

[srainhoutx]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 01 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV
SURVEILLANCE MISSION OUT OF TISX AROUND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SYSTEM FOR 04/0000Z IF IT DEVELOPS.

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING.
IF THIS CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES ON
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[biggerbyte]

There are going to be a few nail biting days ahead. There are solutions being handed out that suggest a Texas problem, eastward all the way out to sea, swimming with the fish. At this point, one is probably as good as the other. This far out, using model guidance only, I just split the difference and say folks in Florida first, then the N. GOM areas second. For all the newbies, watch for trends in any particular model first, then watch to see if all of the models begin to consolidate to one area. The last thing we can usually count on the final day, to three days before landfall, is the models moving right of current forecast. If someone were to insist on asking about the least likely solution, if we could pick one, I'd say anything east/north of the s.e. US coast would be out. That is current thinking anyway. Over time we can get a better idea of who the players will be surrounding this system and bypass the models for a better lock on who would be at most risk. As far as strength goes... Too early to tell, because it depends on what path this system takes, and whether anything gets in it's way later on to slow or prevent development. In the short run, watch out. Out next TD looks to be on order pretty quickly.

[kayci]

There are going to be a few nail biting days ahead. There are solutions being handed out that suggest a Texas problem, eastward all the way out to sea, swimming with the fish. At this point, one is probably as good as the other. This far out, using model guidance only, I just split the difference and say folks in Florida first, then the N. GOM areas second. For all the newbies, watch for trends in any particular model first, then watch to see if all of the models begin to consolidate to one area. The last thing we can usually count on the final day, to three days before landfall, is the models moving right of current forecast. If someone were to insist on asking about the least likely solution, if we could pick one, I'd say anything east/north of the s.e. US coast would be out. That is current thinking anyway. Over time we can get a better idea of who the players will be surrounding this system and bypass the models for a better lock on who would be at most risk. As far as strength goes... Too early to tell, because it depends on what path this system takes, and whether anything gets in it's way later on to slow or prevent development. In the short run, watch out. Out next TD looks to be on order pretty quickly.

Thank you! I really enjoy your posts, they're very informative to us "newbies" who are still learning how to read charts & graphs. Thanks for translating!

[redfish1]

has anyone noticed where the Euro is sending this storm?

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps its just me, but I see two areas that could become a more dominate feature in time. Which one will it be?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Andrew]

has anyone noticed where the Euro is sending this storm?

Yea the Western gulf... I think it is a little to far out to worry too much about this solution but it is concerning to see some consistency in this model which is so highly viewed.

[redfish1]

that is what i was getting at

[Andrew]

that is what i was getting at

Haha alright then. Well I think once we actually get a depression or tropical storm the models will be more reliable.

[redfish1]

that is what i was getting at

Haha alright then. Well I think once we actually get a depression or tropical storm the models will be more reliable.

i was not trying to be rude i was just agreeing with you....it is something in my opinion we need to keep a close eye on