August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[cperk]

srainhoutx when will the data from the Gulfstream be incorporated into the models.

[tireman4]

Starting to get stronger...

[tireman4]

Houston NWS Update

[Scott747]

While the low level recon data helps some it won't be till the G-IV flight early in the morning that is usually a difference maker. As long as that flight isn't delayed and on schedule, it will be ingested into the 12z model runs.

[cperk]

While the low level recon data helps some it won't be till the G-IV flight early in the morning that is usually a difference maker. As long as that flight isn't delayed and on schedule, it will be ingested into the 12z model runs.

Thanks Scott.

[srainhoutx]

Communication issues have been impacting most of the National servers including the WPC since about 4 AM Eastern Time. The various missions have been flying without problems, but data has been extremely slow to the public. We'll see if the 12Z Suite of guidance has been able to ingest the G-IV data in a couple of hours.

[Cpv17]

Srain, this system will impact you more than it will Texas.

[Cromagnum]

Definitely appears to be getting it's act together quickly.

[Stratton20]

This is a good and and bad thing that this is missing us1. Its good because we wont have to deal with a devastating hit (thoughts and prayers go out to folks in Louisiana, its going to be a tough next few days for them ) but #2 its bad because since the cyclone is staying well too our east, that means the heat energy in the far western / northwestern gulf is still undisturbed or untapped... Hope we dont have any problems in september, but im not putting my money on that lol

[srainhoutx]

Srain, this system will impact you more than it will Texas.

Yeah, once again we are under the gun for remnants passing nearby. We certainly do not need any additional flooding problems here, but it's looking like we may well be dealing with Ida on Tuesday/Wednesday in the Smoky Mountains.

[Scott747]

While the low level recon data helps some it won't be till the G-IV flight early in the morning that is usually a difference maker. As long as that flight isn't delayed and on schedule, it will be ingested into the 12z model runs.

Thanks Scott.

NCEP used to update/confirm if any special products (balloon data, G-IV data etc.) were being assimilated into the models when special events were ongoing (in this case Ida.)

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/status/messages/

Would look something like this -

The 00Z NAM started on time with 13 Alaskan...26 Canadian...
70 CONUS...12 Mexican...6 Caribbean...and 8 Pacific stations
available for ingest.

However they don't seem to be doing it anymore so it's hard to confirm. If there are major issues with any model input that may affect the forecast they have mentioned it in the storm discos in the past.

[tireman4]

European Ensembles 06Z

[tireman4]

Houston NWS 10 Am Update

[Cromagnum]

Dang. It looks like it's expected to hit major status quite a bit earlier than previously.

[Pas_Bon]

Dang. It looks like it's expected to hit major status quite a bit earlier than previously.

Hope she gets too big for her britches early on and starts weakening at the cont. shelf.....

[srainhoutx]

So it appears the fiber lines into NOAA in Boulder have been cut. Not sure when repairs are going to be complete, but it does seem to be impacting data assimilation throughout NOAA.

[cperk]

So it appears the fiber lines into NOAA in Boulder have been cut. Not sure when repairs are going to be complete, but it does seem to be impacting data assimilation throughout NOAA.

Wow talk about bad timing.

[sambucol]

In light of the communications problems and data assimilation problems, is there a possibility the storm track could trend west toward Texas? I'm guessing the latest data from recon has not been able to be transferred in order for models to reflect that data. Thank you.

[Kingwood36]

In light of the communications problems and data assimilation problems, is there a possibility the storm track could trend west toward Texas? I'm guessing the latest data from recon has not been able to be transferred in order for models to reflect that data. Thank you.

Not at this point..it's going to Louisiana

[jasons2k]

At this time I see no reason to adjust my thinking. God I hope I’m wrong this time though.