Invest 90L Eastern Atlantic

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007291831
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010072918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010072918, , BEST, 0, 85N, 300W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 291859
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1859 UTC THU JUL 29 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100729 1800 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100729  1800   100730  0600   100730  1800   100731  0600

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.5N  30.0W    8.5N  31.1W    8.6N  32.4W    8.9N  33.7W
BAMD     8.5N  30.0W    8.4N  31.3W    8.7N  32.6W    9.2N  33.8W
BAMM     8.5N  30.0W    8.5N  31.2W    8.8N  32.4W    9.3N  33.7W
LBAR     8.5N  30.0W    8.2N  32.5W    8.5N  35.5W    9.1N  38.5W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          32KTS          43KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          32KTS          43KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100731  1800   100801  1800   100802  1800   100803  1800

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.2N  35.0W    9.6N  38.4W   11.0N  43.8W   13.9N  51.1W
BAMD     9.9N  35.5W   11.1N  39.6W   12.6N  44.9W   15.1N  50.7W
BAMM     9.8N  35.3W   10.3N  39.3W   11.1N  44.8W   13.2N  51.3W
LBAR    10.1N  41.9W   11.6N  48.4W   12.1N  54.0W   14.4N  57.0W
SHIP        54KTS          72KTS          80KTS          81KTS
DSHP        54KTS          72KTS          80KTS          81KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   8.5N LONCUR =  30.0W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =   9.5N LONM12 =  27.0W DIRM12 = 256DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  10.0N LONM24 =  23.6W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

$$
NNNN

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Ptarmigan]

I think 90L could develop, especially as it heads towards the Caribbean.

[biggerbyte]

Larry Cosgrove makes some really good points about this system. He does not buy into model guidance, but rather uses them as the tool in which they are meant to be used.

Quote:
From this distance (we are talking, at earliest, involvement in the U.S. between August 11 and 13), be aware that ANY computer model estimation of track and intensity will have a low chance of verifying. That said, there is a notable split in the GFS and ECMWF models shaping up in the 11 - 15 day period. The American outlook is showing a defined 500MB weakness along the Eastern Seaboard that turns what may be a hurricane northward into the Carolinas. The European panels, however, keep the massive central/southern heat ridge intact, and funnel the disturbance, whatever it is by August 8, into the Gulf of Mexico. If taken literally, the ECMWF variants deliver a strong hint at a Texas landfall around August 14.

I will be following the tropical system trajectories (along with the heat wave) on the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter this weekend. Stay tuned!

End Quote:

[Scott747]

Larry Cosgrove makes some really good points about this system. He does not buy into model guidance, but rather uses them as the tool in which they are meant to be used.

And it sounds like Larry uses the modeling as tools in the same manner like most of us do.

[Scott747]

Well that was a interesting and heck of a shift by the 0z Euro....

[srainhoutx]

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD
BEGIN TO INTERACT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

As was expected, the early tracks have shifted West...

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS suggests a weaker system in the NE Caribbean next Thursday...

[srainhoutx]

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SMALLER
DISTURBANCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO LOSE
ORGANIZATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGER TROPICAL WAVE A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007311150
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[srainhoutx]

Meh, we'll see 91L (a bit further E) in the not too distant future I suspect.

Edit to add the longer range GFS suggests season will be popping before long...

[AndrewLozeau]

hey srainhoutx.....quick question....What do all those numbers and letters mean that you posted? thanks

[srainhoutx]

hey srainhoutx.....quick question....What do all those numbers and letters mean that you posted? thanks

The deactivation message? That means that the area of disturbed weather that was tagged as Invest 90L is no longer being intialized for tracking guidance. It could be reactivated or a new number assinged. (91L) as the wave further E merges with this wave per NHC discussions.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/