From the NWS....
What should you do? - Keeping monitoring the forecast from us and
from the NHC for any updates on this system. If monitoring
model cycles on social media, do not put too much stock into
individual model runs. There will be many changes in these from
run to run and from model to model in the next few days as the
details remain in flux. Review your hurricane preparedness plans
and kits to make sure they are up to date. We are entering the
climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, so making
sure those are complete won`t hurt even if you don`t need them
with this potential system.
Fowler
August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
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weatherguy425
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Still several possibilities on the table with an ensemble spread only narrowing slightly over the past couple runs. Texas, Louisiana residents need to remain alert over the next several days. Confidence should increase a bit by Friday.
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I would not be surprised to see this east shift inch back to the west in the coming days just a hunch.
0Z Euro ensembles
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Last edited by don on Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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srainhoutx
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Up to 40%/80% at 7 AM.
Floater now up for 99L...
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined
Floater now up for 99L...
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
6Z GFS ensembles
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Will be interesting to see what the TVCN says.
Wow. Im already seeing on social media folks posting this is now going to La and saying no worries for TX because of the first model tracks on MWP all going into La. All of Tx and especially me in SETX are still heavily at play and should never let their guard down. Especially when this thing hasn’t even formed yet. Smh
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
USTropics over on S2k has a really fantastic write up with visuals that explains the evolution to look for over the next few days. Highly recommend that folks take a minute for a quick read - http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 8#p2930278
We can start tracking real time for genesis as a coc eventually consolidates. Over the last 24hrs the guidance has shifted from the southern part of the axis becoming dominant with genesis to now favoring the northern area. It's easy to follow on the GFS and it can also be seen evolving real time as it moves across the Caribbean - https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg - The convective ball or vorticity is modeled to pivot around and up towards Jamaica/Caymans before finally consolidating. as it nears the area between Cuba and the YP.
I think it will likely split the difference somewhat along the center of the axis. Still believe how much the trough comes into play and how much it erodes the western flank of the ridge will be the determining factor between a mid/upper Texas coastal track or more towards Louisiana or even further e. Still can't discount the lower Texas coast/N Mex but slowly becoming an outlier.
We can start tracking real time for genesis as a coc eventually consolidates. Over the last 24hrs the guidance has shifted from the southern part of the axis becoming dominant with genesis to now favoring the northern area. It's easy to follow on the GFS and it can also be seen evolving real time as it moves across the Caribbean - https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg - The convective ball or vorticity is modeled to pivot around and up towards Jamaica/Caymans before finally consolidating. as it nears the area between Cuba and the YP.
I think it will likely split the difference somewhat along the center of the axis. Still believe how much the trough comes into play and how much it erodes the western flank of the ridge will be the determining factor between a mid/upper Texas coastal track or more towards Louisiana or even further e. Still can't discount the lower Texas coast/N Mex but slowly becoming an outlier.
Just bought me a Honda 7000is generator. After the deep freeze power outage, I'm not getting caught with pants down again.
Update from Jeff:
Potential hurricane threat for the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Tropical wave is moving westward over the extreme southern Caribbean Sea along the northern coast of South America this morning. There is scattered convection in association with the wave axis, but no low level center. Global model guidance continues to indicate that surface low pressure will develop over some portion of the western Caribbean Sea either Friday or Saturday and move WNW or NW into the south-central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
There has been a significant shift in the deterministic model guidance over the last 24 hours to the right (east) with the majority of the guidance showing 99L heading in the direction of the NW Gulf of Mexico. While there has been some significant shifts in the deterministic runs of the models, the ensemble members continue to show a wide range of potential solutions from northern MX to the MS coast. Generally, the ensemble mean or average is to the left of the deterministic guidance runs. This creates a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast, especially since there is such spread in the ensemble guidance. A lot of the guidance spread is resulting from the lack of a define surface center currently, and it will be critically important late this week on where the actual surface center develops.
Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico appear to be favorable for intensification and nearly all of the global guidance makes 99L a hurricane and some an intense hurricane over the NW Gulf of Mexico early next week.
It is too early to start discussing impacts since there remains a fair amount of uncertainty on the track. For now will continue to bump up seas by this weekend across our coastal waters…likely into the 10-15 foot range by Sunday into Monday and increasing tides. Rain chances will increase starting today and remain high into the weekend. Obviously, the forecast and potential impacts will have significant changes as the track become more clear in the coming days.
Residents and interest along the TX and LA coast should review hurricane plans and make sure hurricane supplies are fully stocked. Monitor forecasts closely and frequently.
Potential hurricane threat for the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Tropical wave is moving westward over the extreme southern Caribbean Sea along the northern coast of South America this morning. There is scattered convection in association with the wave axis, but no low level center. Global model guidance continues to indicate that surface low pressure will develop over some portion of the western Caribbean Sea either Friday or Saturday and move WNW or NW into the south-central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
There has been a significant shift in the deterministic model guidance over the last 24 hours to the right (east) with the majority of the guidance showing 99L heading in the direction of the NW Gulf of Mexico. While there has been some significant shifts in the deterministic runs of the models, the ensemble members continue to show a wide range of potential solutions from northern MX to the MS coast. Generally, the ensemble mean or average is to the left of the deterministic guidance runs. This creates a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast, especially since there is such spread in the ensemble guidance. A lot of the guidance spread is resulting from the lack of a define surface center currently, and it will be critically important late this week on where the actual surface center develops.
Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico appear to be favorable for intensification and nearly all of the global guidance makes 99L a hurricane and some an intense hurricane over the NW Gulf of Mexico early next week.
It is too early to start discussing impacts since there remains a fair amount of uncertainty on the track. For now will continue to bump up seas by this weekend across our coastal waters…likely into the 10-15 foot range by Sunday into Monday and increasing tides. Rain chances will increase starting today and remain high into the weekend. Obviously, the forecast and potential impacts will have significant changes as the track become more clear in the coming days.
Residents and interest along the TX and LA coast should review hurricane plans and make sure hurricane supplies are fully stocked. Monitor forecasts closely and frequently.
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weatherguy425
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Still with just barely more than a grain of salt, but initial 12Z tropical models have shifted a bit west from their earlier Vermillion Bay tracks. Watching continues. Hopefully, more of a consensus by Friday evening.
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Texaspirate11
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I guess they keep seeing the models go more north every run so maybe they are hoping it continues into LA...but thats just hopeful thinking vs what could really bedjmike wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:49 am Wow. Im already seeing on social media folks posting this is now going to La and saying no worries for TX because of the first model tracks on MWP all going into La. All of Tx and especially me in SETX are still heavily at play and should never let their guard down. Especially when this thing hasn’t even formed yet. Smh
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
nobody has mentioned a possible intensity yet...what are yall thinking? TS..1..2 ?
Too early to worry about intensity. Let’s get a system first. The pieces are there but this is a complex forecast.
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Kingwood36
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The panic has already started..ppl are hoarding water already here at my walmart...
Hopefully it's Jaden and not Ida. "I" storms are verboten around here.
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Stormlover2020
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