August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS ensemble run, members split 50/50, some to Texas some to Mexico

[Scott747]

18z GEFS ensemble run, members split 50/50, some to Texas some to Mexico

Huh?

They are overwhelmingly into Mexico.

[Stratton20]

Scott747 lol I didnt see the members at the bottom of the screen, still too much uncertainty though

[Cpv17]

There are actually pretty good rain chances starting Wednesday through the end of the week. Let's see if they materialize!

I see that in the forecast too which is weird because I thought we’d be under a high pressure since the models are pushing that storm south of us.

[Texaspirate11]

From our NWS:
NHC doesn't seem to be too concerned as of yet

Saturday and Sunday...
Global models all showing a low tracking from the Wrn
Carribean... across the Yucatan into the SW Gulf of Mexico. This
system appears to develop into a tropical cyclone in most of the
models. At this time most solutions bring center into Mexico or
perhaps S TX but too soon to be confident in any details. In fact
no areas drawn yet on NHC 5 day tropical outlook...consistent with
idea that any development is still days away. Too much
uncertainty at this point to draw any conclusions. Stay tuned.

[Stratton20]

Not much change in the 00z GFS, however it is now showing a slightly weaker ridge compared to previous runs, will be something to watch closely, even the 00z CMC has trended with a weaker ridge and a landfall near extreme northern mexico/ Brownsville Tx

[Scott747]

Oy vey. Thankfully it's at the longest range but the environment the GFS continues to show on these 0z runs is something else....

[Scott747]

NHC has now highlighted the area in the Caribbean on the 5 day TWO.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

[mcheer23]

00z EPS has a stronger Texas signal.
06z GFS has moved a little further north.
Plenty of time to watch how this evolves.


A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected
to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast
to become favorable for gradual development while the system moves
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Rip76]

Jeff - Monday update

Overall hot pattern will continue through mid week with near heat advisory criteria each afternoon.

Upper level ridge of high pressure that kept Grace well south of TX remains in place over the region. This ridge has also minimized rain chances since last Thursday and this pattern will remain in place into mid week. Temperatures each afternoon reach the mid to upper 90’s, but have yet to reach 100 with heat index values of 105-108.

Ridge begins to retreat northward by Wednesday and a series of tropical waves and disturbances will move from east to west across the US Gulf coast and into coastal TX from mid week onward. With the lowering of mid level heights, cooler convective trigger temperatures, and a significant influx of Gulf moisture, showers and thunderstorms will return as early as Wednesday across much of the area and last likely into next week. Locally heavy rainfall will become an increasing threat by late week and this weekend with tropical moisture firmly in place over the region.

Tropics:
Focus will be trained on the western Caribbean Sea by late this week and then the southern and western Gulf of Mexico into the weekend and early next week. Tropical wave currently entering the eastern Caribbean Sea is moving west and will eventually arrive in the western Caribbean Sea by Thursday where conditions will be more favorable for development. Deterministic and ensembles from the GFS, CMC, and EURO all show development of a tropical system over the western Caribbean Sea and NHC has now outlooked the area for development over the next 5 days at 30%. It is likely that this system will track WNW or NW into the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend. Where a center forms in the western Caribbean Sea and how much ridging there is along the US Gulf coast by this weekend will determine the ultimate track of this system.

At this time will maintain healthy rain chances through the weekend as guidance shows continued deep surge a tropical moisture on northern side of tropical system and leave it at that for now, but will likely have to deal with some degree of increasing tides also by late in the weekend along the TX coast.

Monitor forecasts daily for updates on tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea.

[srainhoutx]

Looking like the tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea will begin to slow down later this week as it enters the NW Caribbean. The ensembles are very bullish on lowering pressure and likely genesis by Friday. We will be in the monitoring and watching mode until tropical system actually develops, if it does. I will not be surprised to see an Invest declaration before the day is done.

[Rip76]

Looking like the tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea will begin to slow down later this week as it enters the NW Caribbean. The ensembles are very bullish on lowering pressure and likely genesis by Friday. We will be in the monitoring and watching mode until tropical system actually develops, if it does. I will not be surprised to see an Invest declaration before the day is done.

Invest on Friday?

[mcheer23]

Looking like the tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea will begin to slow down later this week as it enters the NW Caribbean. The ensembles are very bullish on lowering pressure and likely genesis by Friday. We will be in the monitoring and watching mode until tropical system actually develops, if it does. I will not be surprised to see an Invest declaration before the day is done.

Invest on Friday?

It'll likely be declared an Invest either today or tomorrow. Should see an upgrade to a TD by Friday evening if models are correct.

[sambucol]

Looking like the tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea will begin to slow down later this week as it enters the NW Caribbean. The ensembles are very bullish on lowering pressure and likely genesis by Friday. We will be in the monitoring and watching mode until tropical system actually develops, if it does. I will not be surprised to see an Invest declaration before the day is done.

Invest on Friday?

It'll likely be declared an Invest either today or tomorrow. Should see an upgrade to a TD by Friday evening if models are correct.

Is this the system that is probably going to Mexico?

[Rip76]

Looking like the tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea will begin to slow down later this week as it enters the NW Caribbean. The ensembles are very bullish on lowering pressure and likely genesis by Friday. We will be in the monitoring and watching mode until tropical system actually develops, if it does. I will not be surprised to see an Invest declaration before the day is done.

Invest on Friday?

It'll likely be declared an Invest either today or tomorrow. Should see an upgrade to a TD by Friday evening if models are correct.

10-4, Thanks.

[Dls2010r]

I hate this heat but I’m not gonna lie. Just moved. I have 12 more days for flood to kick in.

[DoctorMu]

Invest on Friday?

It'll likely be declared an Invest either today or tomorrow. Should see an upgrade to a TD by Friday evening if models are correct.

Is this the system that is probably going to Mexico?

Yes. Mexico or RGV

But we have tropical moisture / waves coming in midweek to increase the chance of rain to 40% in CLL; 50-60% in Houston from Wednesday evening on. Tomorrow will probably be the hottest day of the year.

[Cpv17]

Invest on Friday?

It'll likely be declared an Invest either today or tomorrow. Should see an upgrade to a TD by Friday evening if models are correct.

Is this the system that is probably going to Mexico?

It’s way too early still to determine where it’s going. Anywhere from sw Louisiana to southern Mexico needs to pay attention imo.

[don]

The trend in the 12Z operational models so far today has been further south with a stronger ridge in place.But still too early to know for sure how things will play out as we don't have a tc yet.

[Rhodesk75]

Good morning everyone!
I'm usually just a quiet watcher, but I have a question about the possible "something" we're looking at later this week. We have a camping trip planned with all of our Grandkids from Fri-Sun...*IF* this "something" does verify and *IF* we were expecting ANY kind of effects from it (even rain), what do ya'll think the timing looks like? I just don't want to be caught in yucky weather while we are away with 3 littles OR rushing home to a mess. Thanks in advance for your feedback. Have a fabulous week!