August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[don]

At least there is Don and his excellent up to date model updates and graphics!

Aww Thank you!

12Z EURO similar to the GFS still into north Mexico as a tropical storm.

[Stormlover2020]

I just don’t see that ridge being that strong in 8-9 days

[Kingwood36]

Still need something to actually develop before we can trust these models

[cperk]

So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.

srain what is he seeing that we’re not because the models appear to be pretty set on a Mexico hit.

[don]

I just don’t see that ridge being that strong in 8-9 days

A lot will depend on how fast the system develops also, as there will be a inverted trough over the east gulf temporarily later this week that could pull the system northward.Before the ridge builds back in,how far north the storm is at that time and also how strong the ridge builds to the west will have big implications on where the storm goes.By Wednesday/Thursday we should know a lot more, especially once TC genesis occurs.

[DoctorMu]

So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.

srain what is he seeing that we’re not because the models appear to be pretty set on a Mexico hit.

Euro, Canadian, GFS all see rejuvenation of Ridging Aug 29-31... Still worth watching this week just in case Mexico is not the destination, and one of the ensembles sniffs out another TC in the Bay of Campeche a week later...

[Iceresistance]

So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.

srain what is he seeing that we’re not because the models appear to be pretty set on a Mexico hit.

Euro, Canadian, GFS all see rejuvenation of Ridging Aug 29-31... Still worth watching this week just in case Mexico is not the destination, and one of the ensembles sniffs out another TC in the Bay of Campeche a week later...

The ICON has this closer toward Texas though . . .

[Stratton20]

My birthday is on the 29th.... Hoping no nasty surprises with this forecast

[Cpv17]

So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.

srain what is he seeing that we’re not because the models appear to be pretty set on a Mexico hit.

It’s a week + out. Models will flip flop for the next few days.

[Iceresistance]

My birthday is on the 29th.... Hoping no nasty surprises with this forecast

Mine is September 15th, Peak of Hurricane Season!

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yikes! Hope nothing bad happens this season, I had harvey during my birthday 4 years ago, that was pretty depressing lol

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance yikes! Hope nothing bad happens this season, I had harvey during my birthday 4 years ago, that was pretty depressing lol

Oh that is terrbile! My friend has PTSD from Harvey . . .

[weatherguy425]

So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.

I was wondering what social media he was on. What is his handle?

Thanks!

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yeah that was a bad bad week, luckily we avoided bad flooding due to our house being built on a small incline

[srainhoutx]

So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.

I was wondering what social media he was on. What is his handle?

Thanks!

TropicsWatch...

[srainhoutx]

So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.

srain what is he seeing that we’re not because the models appear to be pretty set on a Mexico hit.

I would assume the ensembles. That is what he typically uses when advising their clients at this range.

[Iceresistance]

So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.

srain what is he seeing that we’re not because the models appear to be pretty set on a Mexico hit.

I would assume the ensembles. That is what he typically uses when advising their clients at this range.

I do want to mention that most of the models on the next system next week do have consistency on the general location, but disagreement on the location & strength . . .

12z Models:
The CMC has this as a Hurricane with 980s MB into Northern Mexico, GFS & Euro in the BoC or Western GoM as a Strong Tropical Storm (995s MB), & ICON is further east & heading towards Texas as a weaker system (Down to 1000 MB)

[TXWeatherMan]

My birthday is on the 29th.... Hoping no nasty surprises with this forecast

Mine is also the 29th. Harvey pretty much ruined it in 2017.

[Stratton20]

TXWeatherMan ah haha happy early related birthday!Hope Mother Nature doesnt decide to send something oir way around that time

[TexasBreeze]

There are actually pretty good rain chances starting Wednesday through the end of the week. Let's see if they materialize!