August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[DoctorMu]

There is no consensus.

We have a long way to go.

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu IMO , most likely between Mexico and Texas is the greatest concern for a landfall, at least thats what the operational model runs and ensemble members are indicating, but ofc things can change, but im just going aith the consensus right now

That’s even if something develops. Still need to watch and wait if we actually have something to track. Right now there’s nothing really out there so the models don’t really have anything to initialize from.

Exactly.

[don]

12Z Euro Ensembles.

[Stratton20]

We will see, hope it makes landfall here as a weak system though, this miserable heat can take a hike lol

[Stormlover2020]

Nothing weak in late august

[Stratton20]

This is very concerning, especially since this is coming from a reliable weather person/ source, a very robust or powerful CCKW may be traversing into the atlantic by the 25th and beyond , this kind of signal means the tropics might absolutely explode, maybe even more active that what we have seen recently

[Katdaddy]

Interesting days ahead. From this afternoon’s HOU-GAL NWS discussion: By the end of the week and on into the weekend, we will also be watching the northwest Caribbean-southern Gulf of Mexico area for possible tropical development.

[DoctorMu]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch. Major heat wave is upon us through Wednesday and the first day with century mark temperature highs on College Station by Tuesday.

[Cpv17]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch. Major heat wave is upon us through Wednesday and the first day with century mark temperature highs on College Station by Tuesday.

Don’t they usually say there’s a strong heatwave before a storm comes? Like the days leading up to it are usually really hot and dry?

[DoctorMu]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch. Major heat wave is upon us through Wednesday and the first day with century mark temperature highs on College Station by Tuesday.

Don’t they usually say there’s a strong heatwave before a storm comes? Like the days leading up to it are usually really hot and dry?

That's during and after an organized tropical system typically east of us (e.g., Louisiana). Strong tropical storms and hurricanes have an upper high overhead that feeds the TC, but presses down on the atmosphere and on the periphery heats the atmosphere and inhibits showers from forming. We saw this in College Station last season as Laura and the Greek alphabet storms followed virtually the same path near Lake Charles. Also Ike produced wind and mega heat here but little rain as it moved up east of I-45.

This current heat was is due to the upper level ridge that would block steering currents from taking a new TC towards us. If that ridge moves east and a trough dips that the TC would move toward that gap. It's not caused by an approaching tropical system.

[Cpv17]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch. Major heat wave is upon us through Wednesday and the first day with century mark temperature highs on College Station by Tuesday.

Don’t they usually say there’s a strong heatwave before a storm comes? Like the days leading up to it are usually really hot and dry?

That's during and after an organized tropical system typically east of us (e.g., Louisiana). Strong tropical storms and hurricanes have an upper high overhead that feeds the TC, but presses down on the atmosphere and on the periphery heats the atmosphere and inhibits showers from forming. We saw this in College Station last season as Laura and the Greek alphabet storms followed virtually the same path near Lake Charles. Also Ike produced wind and mega heat here but little rain as it moved up east of I-45.

This current heat was is due to the upper level ridge that would block steering currents from taking a new TC towards us. If that ridge moves east and a trough dips that the TC would move toward that gap. It's not caused by an approaching tropical system.

Yeah I totally get that but have always heard there’s a ridge before a storm hits.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS came in slightly further north than the 12z. Now shows landfall around La Pesca.

[Stratton20]

Is that huge blob of convection in the western caribbean the area that the models are picking up on?

[don]

18z GFS ensembles are further north than the operational.

[DoctorMu]

18z GFS ensembles are further north than the operational.

Yeah, the GEFS ensembles don't bring the blocking ridge back west and over Texas like GFS. Interesting.

[Scott747]

No surprises with a huge swing between the 6z and 0z GFS. It's went from a cat 3/4 into Corpus to a weak tropical storm around Tampico. It's still tracking the wave currently to the sw of the CV islands without any real intensification until the approach into the Caribbean and also having issues resolving another wave behind it.

We'll see if it continues to build some more consistency over the next few days or drops it. So far even with the usual swings in the long range I've been impressed with the upgrade of the GFS and its ensembles earlier this year.

Just wanted to circle back to this real quick before dealing with the next potential threat...

Scary good how this modeling was that far out (11-12 days.) Plenty of noise and expected crazy swings in between but the GFS almost two weeks out modeled the environment and steering currents unbelievably good with the eventual landfall not far S of Tampico as a strengthening major.

I continue to become more impressed with the upgrade to the GFS and the ensembles once you block out some of the discrepancies. There will always be swings, especially in such a long range. Also of note - Once those upper level data flights started running and ingesting the data they locked on the eventual track and even intensity for the most part, especially the HWRF. Impressive!

[don]

0z GFS has a stronger ridge,which protects us and sends the system to the same area as Grace. Still a ways to go though of course.

[Stratton20]

Don fingers crossed the GFS is wrong about a stronger ridge, ira been hot and dry long enough here

[mcheer23]

CMC back into Mexico

[Stratton20]

Disappointing model trend tonight to say the least lol