August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS runs

[jasons2k]

Yep it is looking more like Long Island is going to take a direct landfall and the intensity may surprise a lot of folks.

[DoctorMu]

Yep it is looking more like Long Island is going to take a direct landfall and the intensity may surprise a lot of folks.

I agree. The easterly then SE winds are going to storm surge the Hamptons. Easterlies and ENE are headed to NY Harbor and Jersey.

Besides the flooding likely to occur, that windfield is no joke.

Srain, how's it going? Seeing those reports of flooding in western NC.

[srainhoutx]

Yep it is looking more like Long Island is going to take a direct landfall and the intensity may surprise a lot of folks.

I agree. The easterly then SE winds are going to storm surge the Hamptons. Easterlies and ENE are headed to NY Harbor and Jersey.

Besides the flooding likely to occur, that windfield is no joke.

Srain, how's it going? Seeing those reports of flooding in western NC.

We are fine here in Maggie Valley, but so many of our neighbors in Curso, Canton and Clyde are suffering mightily. The flood wave that came down the Pigeon River literally swept people and there homes away in minutes. I cannot go anywhere without talking to someone who has been impacted by this record flood event in our County. Thank you for asking!

[Texaspirate11]

LOVE that rain with no name - I'm good.

"Rain w/ no name" I'm gonna put that in my repertoire

Sure!

[Texaspirate11]

Yep it is looking more like Long Island is going to take a direct landfall and the intensity may surprise a lot of folks.

I agree. The easterly then SE winds are going to storm surge the Hamptons. Easterlies and ENE are headed to NY Harbor and Jersey.

Besides the flooding likely to occur, that windfield is no joke.

Srain, how's it going? Seeing those reports of flooding in western NC.

We are fine here in Maggie Valley, but so many of our neighbors in Curso, Canton and Clyde are suffering mightily. The flood wave that came down the Pigeon River literally swept people and there homes away in minutes. I cannot go anywhere without talking to someone who has been impacted by this record flood event in our County. Thank you for asking!

I'm glad you are safe. Very sad to read of all the missing

[djmike]

Prayers for Mexico. Grace now a Cat 3 right before landfall tonight.

[Cromagnum]

Prayers for Mexico. Grace now a Cat 3 right before landfall tonight.

Yeah, everyone that was hoping this crap would come here is insane.

[Scott747]

Josh is in a small town s of Tecolutla. Should nail the eye. For anyone that has WeatherNation he was doing live feeds.

[Stratton20]

00z CMC has trended even more aggressive, shows a hurricane just off of Texas about 9 days from now

[don]

0Z euro ensembles and 6Z GFS enembles.I don't think Ive seen a signal this strong for tc development in this range at least so far this year.

[Stratton20]

Don yeah this is surprisingly good agreement for something 9 days out, well technically the “landfall” is 9 days out but it looks like this “system” may get into the gulf actually about 5-6 days from now

[Cpv17]

0Z euro ensembles and 6Z GFS enembles.I don't think Ive seen a signal this strong for tc development in this range at least so far this year.

The 6z GEFS just made things a lot more interesting. I wonder why the operational is so different? It has it going towards Tampico. I feel like till the operationals show something this won’t really get much attention.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 I think the operational models are doing poorly with cyclonic vorticity this year,

[Kingwood36]

Keep an eye on this tropical wave near 50W. There's growing model support that this wave will interact with some monsoonal entity in the W.Caribbean and will try to develop and move into the GOMEX in about 6-7 days, as a CCKW will be passing by next week.

[don]

The operational GFS is no longer pushing development back and now shows tc genesis next Friday.The ICON is also onboard with a depression heading towards the Texas coast at the end of its run fwiw.

[Stratton20]

Well looks like we have something to track yall

[Cpv17]

Well looks like we have something to track yall

Probably, but like I said earlier, I don’t think most people are going to pay much attention to it till it starts threatening us on the op runs.

[don]

12Z GFS takes the system into Mexico as a category 1, while the CMC takes it into Matagorda as a category 1 also.

[Stratton20]

If and i mean a big “IF” this system does threaten us, a landfall looks likely around the 29-30th, that would be really unfortunate as my classes start then