August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Stratton20]

Interesting to note that it seems that Grace is leaving behind a lot of moisture in the caribbean

[DoctorMu]

Interesting to note that it seems that Grace is leaving behind a lot of moisture in the caribbean

But a cooler wake and African dust on its way to the Caribbean.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu I would say noticeably cooler but still plenty warm( not saying anything is going to develop, just found it interesting how kuch moisture has been left behind) but most of that dust will probably thin out as it traverses the atlantic, fingers crossed that dust fizzles out before it gets here, i dont need anymore sneezing problems lol, will have to watch down the road for more tropical trouble as the models definitely are picking up on something in the medium range forecast

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff:

Grace over the Bay of Campeche this morning and intensifying.

After crossing over the Yucatan yesterday, Grace has emerged over the Bay of Campeche overnight and this morning and has quickly begun to reorganize. A deep convective burst over the center has occurred and IR images show what appears to be a warm spot indicating that an eye feature may be forming. Recent USAF pass through Grace indicates the storm has intensified into an 85mph hurricane.

Grace is moving west and will move inland tonight over eastern Mexico being steered by a strong deep layer ridge to the north and northwest of the hurricane. Conditions are favorable for intensification and Grace will continue to intensify up until landfall.

Large long period swells will be expanding across the NW Gulf of Mexico today and Saturday and this will result in wave run-up along the Gulf facing beaches. Minor coastal flooding will be possible at times of high tide both later today and on Saturday. There will also be a high threat for rip currents along the TX coast this weekend. Tides and seas will begin to subside by late this weekend along the TX coast.

This will be the final update on Grace.

[Stratton20]

00z Euro and CMC both have gotten a little more aggressive with the potential BOC system 8-9 days from now

[Cpv17]

Watch all of it. EPS is picking up on it as well as the GEFS. Decent ensemble support right now. I think the Euro has 51 members and it appears close to half of them are picking up on something.



Interesting to note that the op runs of the GFS and Euro want to develop this further west which would slam northern Mexico but some of their ensemble members develop it further east which would give it more time over water and allow a further northerly movement.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yep that is pretty good ensemble support

[Cpv17]

12z CMC with a strong tropical storm into northern Mexico:

[Stratton20]

12z CMC is even more aggressive with development about 8 days from now

[don]

12Z GFS ensembles are still active as well.

[Cpv17]

The ensembles are no longer 240+ hours out. Things start coming together on the 12z GEFS at about hour 150 in the sw Caribbean. I can’t quite tell for sure or not if it’s from a low rider or some sort of energy coming off Colombia.

[captainbarbossa19]

So the GFS developed something in earlier runs, but appears to have dropped it now. However, that is not the first time we have seen the GFS develop something in long-range modeling, drop it, and then see something form later on. We will need to watch this closely since ensemble guidance is suggesting something to start developing about a week from now.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro and 12z GFS are pretty much identical. Both show some minor development but don’t do anything with it because it starts developing too close to shore and all the energy just crashes into Mexico. So right now it’s the operationals vs ensembles which paint a much different picture.

The CPC seems to think we’ll have a pretty good chance of rain around here towards the end of the month and beginning of September:

[don]

Yep,in this range the ensembles support is more important than the operational runs.I would bet that the operational GFS and EURO are probably too slow with development,at least if we go by how they've performed so far this year with TC genesis.

[Stratton20]

Don I agree 100% because their is good ensemble support for development next week

[TexasBreeze]

The way Grace looks today, it is good it won't come toward Texas. Just look at that infared satellite of it!

[don]

12Z EURO ensembles.

[Stratton20]

Don this is very interesting, seems like whatever tries to form next week maybe a Mexico or Texas problem

[don]

CPC tropical outlook

[DoctorMu]

CPC tropical outlook

I'll take the above average rainfall.

In other news, Henri is heading for the Hamptons! Skip, Karlie, and Buffy on Billionaire's Lane are packing their essential belongings (aka jewelry they can't insure) now...