August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[DoctorMu]

The NWS track record vs. the models last year and so far this year has been stellar.

In politics, follow the money. In hurricane hunting, follow the ensembles...and NHS

Grace = Tampico Trauma.

https://youtu.be/RfUvHCypGs8

Glad we got rain yesterday!

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu I think their is one big caviet or question mark to this track? As of now the hurricane hunters found that this center is moving to the NW towards hispanola, if it makes landfall that could very much disrupt or rip apart the center, if that occurs we could see a reformation of the center either North Or South of the Island, this could ultimately have a huge affect on Graces future track, just curious to know what your thoughta are on this ?

[Texaspirate11]

AS long as it stays out of Houston, ill back our NWS

[tireman4]

Meanwhile, back home.....

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161724
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.AVIATION...
Seabreeze and associated sct shra/tstms setting up along the
coast. Further inland, convective temps are being reached and
should see increasing precip development thru the aftn hours with
continued heating. Activity should mostly dissipate this evening
followed by redevelopment closer to the coast toward morning.
Rinse-repeat on Tue. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions
will prevail. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 94 76 91 / 40 20 40 30 50
Houston (IAH) 96 77 95 78 91 / 70 20 60 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 91 81 91 / 40 40 40 20 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[jasons2k]

Yeah, my rain chances today (had been 30%) just got suddenly boosted to 70%! And now 60% tomorrow!

And today - I ran my sprinklers and hand-watered the back.

No pool work for a few days so hopefully we do get something to water everything in. The plants and grass need it.

[Stratton20]

Jasons2k how far along are yall with the pool?

[jasons2k]

Jasons2k how far along are yall with the pool?

Tile work/coping/spillover is all finished. Plumbing later this week or next week, then electrical. It’s coming along.

I need to think about getting a Generac (or Kohler) gas generator. Don’t want to have a cesspool for weeks like I did with Ike, especially with new plaster.

[Stratton20]

Jasons2k ah cool! Well looks like the next few days their is a decent chance for rain so that might slow down work on your pool at least temporarily

[jasons2k]

Poof as usual…

[jasons2k]

Pool preview

[Stratton20]

Wow looks good Jason! Side note if anyone can answer this question, but Grace appears at least on satellite imagery, really healthy, if Grace somehow gets stronger than what models are predicting when it reaches the yucatan, wouldnt a stronger storm/ grace be able to fight off the ridge to its north? Just curious about this idea

[redneckweather]

Great design on that pool Jason! Almost makes me want to get one.lol Looking forward to seeing it finished out.

I was absolutely impressed with the NHC with their 3 and 5 day cone of error last season and I see no reason that won't continue this season. Each passing day brings us closer to that first good front of the fall season and the opening day of college football. Roll Tide!!!

[Cpv17]

Next on Grace. We need to be watching the time period around the last few days of August and first few days of September. Seeing some hints.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yup some models are starting to sniff at some more potential gulf mischief about 9 -10 days from now

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Great design on that pool Jason! Almost makes me want to get one.lol Looking forward to seeing it finished out.

I was absolutely impressed with the NHC with their 3 and 5 day cone of error last season and I see no reason that won't continue this season. Each passing day brings us closer to that first good front of the fall season and the opening day of college football. Roll Tide!!!

Yessir! Counting down the days to October 9th!

I already have over 300 RSVPd for that showdown.

[tireman4]

XUS64 KHGX 161942
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
242 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
Ongoing showers and tstms across the area should taper off this
evening with the loss of heating. Considering that the overall
pattern remains about the same, a continued forecast of persistence
still looks to be the way to go. Mid/upper trof stretching from
the Great Lakes into Tx, PW`s 1.8-2.2", seabreeze and daytime
heating will contribute to diurnally driven shra/tstms again
Tues. Overnight lows 75-81 and daytime highs in the 90s. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
An elongated upper level ridge will build across the Gulf Coast
states through the extended period, bringing with it seasonably hot
and humid conditions. We will also see a fairly typical increase in
showers and thunderstorms, especially nearer the coast, each afternoon
with diminishing PoPs after dark. While TS Grace will bear watching,
the building e-w upper ridge axis should shunt the system well
south on a more wwd track out of the Caribbean and across the far
southern Gulf into Mexico. The latest NHC tracks continue to trend
this way today, in which case the system would bring few if any
tangible impacts to SETX outside of increasing swells and surf
along the beaches. As the ridge builds this weekend, it will also
increase temperatures and wouldn`t be surprised if we see heat
indicies near advisory criteria Saturday into Monday.

Evans

&&

.MARINE...
2-4ft/9-11s swell associated with Fred will move wwd across the
waters tonight into Wed morning. Otherwise, pressure gradient will
begin tightening and onshore flow will strengthen as we head into
the mid-late week time period. Onshore winds will increase and
we`ll see a corresponding increase in seas - possibly to caution
criteria at times.

TD Grace is currently forecast to strengthen into a TS and move
w/wnw across the Yucatan Wed night and toward the eastern coast of
Mexico Fri night and Saturday. Local marine fcst details obviously
depend on its eventual track/intensity, but assuming current fcst
is in the ballpark, we should see an increasing swell arriving
Thurs night...peaking Fri night or early Sat. WWIII & ECMWF wave
models in fairly good agreement w/ 6-8ft seas at this point. ICON
is lower, but again...all dependent on the specifics. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 94 76 92 77 / 20 40 30 50 10
Houston (IAH) 76 95 78 93 79 / 20 50 30 60 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 91 81 91 83 / 40 40 30 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[djmike]

Wow. Pretty intense storm just now in west beaumont. Power is out. Winds. Neighbors tree is down. (All ok) Hail. Lightning and thunder was insane. 1” in 8 min. Doubt tornado but was probably one hell of a downburst.

[don]

Very stormy outside at the moment, just lost power for a few seconds.

[don]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
423 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Southwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 515 PM CDT.

* At 423 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small
stream flooding. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen across
portions of the area over the past hour.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northwestern Pasadena, Bellaire, Humble, West University Place,
Galena Park, Jacinto City, Jersey Village, Hunters Creek Village,
Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point Village, Northside / Northline,
Aldine, Greater Greenspoint, Greater Heights, Near Northside
Houston, Memorial Park, Fourth Ward, Greater Fifth Ward, Downtown
Houston and Neartown / Montrose.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over
portions of the area. This additional rain will result in minor
flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

[don]

Be safe out there Flash flood warning issued for portions of Harris County.

Flash Flood Warning

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
448 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen across portions of the warned
area. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches may be possible
across portions of the the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing
or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Northwestern Pasadena, Bellaire, West University Place, Galena
Park, Jacinto City, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village,
Piney Point Village, Memorial Park, Neartown / Montrose, Fourth
Ward, Greater Heights, Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area, Midtown
Houston, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, Downtown Houston, University
Place, Near Northside Houston, Greater Third Ward and Macgregor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 2983 9563 2984 9518 2970 9519 2969 9562

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED