August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Texaspirate11]

Models are wonky bc it hasnt gone thru Hispanola yet.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 it was prwtty good last year, if the HWRF continues to advertise this and any of the other hurricane models start showing a stronger grace then i’ll probably be alot more concerned, but this is a bit eye opening

[Scott747]

Fwiw that was the 12z HWRF and it's about 300-400 miles from the Texas coast. Earlier models have had almost no data since the pervious recon mission.

A new mission has recently finished and it's not looking good for Grace. Again for continuity they will probably keep it as a TS but it's gonna have to be with some complex wording. It also continues to look way s of forecast. Track almost has to be shifted to the S.

There could be at least some extra data for the 18z models. Not only from the just finished low level recon but also from the ongoing upper level mission. 0z models should be assimilated with a bevy of new data and begin to give some better output compared to the last few days.

[Cromagnum]

I'm convinced that the models get worse every year.

[Pas_Bon]

Bottom line is it is wayyyy too early to determine if we will have to watch this closely. No sense in worrying until it exits Hispaniola (if it even does so successfully).

[Stratton20]

Im gonna watch this like A hawk lol, I especially dont trust these weak systems

[Cpv17]

Bottom line is it is wayyyy too early to determine if we will have to watch this closely. No sense in worrying until it exits Hispaniola (if it even does so successfully).

The center is reforming to the south. It’ll probably miss Hispaniola to the south but I agree there’s not much to be concerned about right now.

[Stratton20]

Interesting post

[Kingwood36]

Grace has been downgraded to a tropical depression..still moving west

[Scott747]

Yep. A bit surprised but the data supported a TD, at best. Decent shift with the track as well. More towards the lower texas coast once it hits a wall and goes due w.

Plenty of slack to come with track. Again hopefully with the 0z runs tonight we can get some clarity.

[Kingwood36]

New cone

[Cpv17]

I could definitely see this just slamming into Mexico. If I were a betting man then that’s where my money would be right now.

[Stratton20]

Im putting my money on a Corpus Christi landfall lol( just a speculation and a wild guess)

[don]

I could definitely see this just slamming into Mexico. If I were a betting man then that’s where my money would be right now.

Yep Grace could end up being too far south to feel the trough,and go right into Mexico.Hopefully there will be more clarity in tonight's model runs with new data.I feel pretty confident at this point that Grace will be either a Mexico or Texas threat though, but not ready to make a call on which one yet.It just depends on how strong the trough ends up being over the northwest.

[Stratton20]

Beaides taking a random guess, why is their another airplane on their way into Grace? They have already downgraded it to a depression, why are they flying into it(A3O2 mission)

[Scott747]

New recon mission is flying across the DR and should be descending soon. Should get an idea in an hour or so if that area down around 16n is becoming dominant which would have further impact on a southerly track.

[srainhoutx]

Beaides taking a random guess, why is their another airplane on their way into Grace? They have already downgraded it to a depression, why are they flying into it(A3O2 mission)

Reconnaissance for additional data and they're likely going to catch it while in Mona Passage. Every bit of additional data provides better guidance output.

[Stratton20]

srainhoutx ah gotcha! Thanks for explaining that!

[Rip76]

Getting crushed in Friendswood.

I also think Grace will cruise into Mexico.

[Stratton20]

I know its all fun and games with the guessing where Grace will make landfall, but I think the best way to say this is anywhere from Northern Mexico To matagorda bay is where this could potentially make landfall, too much uncertainty