August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Texaspirate11]

We had a few thunderclaps and a bit of rain

[DoctorMu]

No measurable rain here since July 27. Just sayin’

Our rain late last week has run out of gas. Time to water after mowing.

Electrical and tile in?

[Scott747]

Pretty dramatic 180 on the 0z GFS.

[Cpv17]

Pretty dramatic 180 on the 0z GFS.

You’re not lying. Watch the 6z drop it.

[sambucol]

Pretty dramatic 180 on the 0z GFS.

What does it show?

[Scott747]

Pretty dramatic 180 on the 0z GFS.

You’re not lying. Watch the 6z drop it.

Definitely possible. It was just a few days back is when there was the cat 4 into Corpus on the 0z. But that was at the longest range of the run.

I'm definitely building some confidence on a track for 'something' towards the general vicinity of the Bahamas in the midrange. But there was a very weak steering environment in this run once there, along with some stronger ridging in previous runs that there could be a wide range of scenarios. Euro has continued to push the vorticity towards the eastern gulf.

[Scott747]

Pretty dramatic 180 on the 0z GFS.

What does it show?

It went from showing virtually nothing these last few days to showing a cat 4 around the Bahamas that moves very little for a few days before finally making landfall around Wilmington NC.

So there's reason to be plenty skeptical...

[Stratton20]

Jee whis the GFS just went bonkers in this run, this would be a devastating blow to the bahamas “IF” this verified, but it still will probably change

[Cromagnum]

Nice little home grown blowup just south of the LA border.

[tireman4]

Back home....000
FXUS64 KHGX 131205
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
705 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light
southeasterly to southerly flow. Today will be very similar to
yesterday with scattered showers developing around GLS and LBX
through the morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will expand
in land through the afternoon with VCTS possible at CXO southwards.
The precipitation decreases in coverage in the evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Scattered clouds between 3000 and 5000ft will
persist through tonight.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 430 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday]...

Some early morning (or late night depending on your perspective)
showers and thunderstorms have popped up along the coast. This
precipitation will linger along the coast through sunrise, then
expand inland through the day before dissipating in the evening.
Coverage will be isolated today as an upper level ridge builds
over Texas helping to suppress storm development. Like the last
few days, the highest chances of precipitation will be south of
Huntsville with some late day showers possibly making it to the
northern fringe of the area. There will be another round of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, but PWATs
will be increasing across the north ahead of an approaching
boundary from the north. This will help support shower and
thunderstorms development across the northern third of the area
Saturday afternoon. The upper level ridge will also be weakening,
so expecting higher coverage of storms in general across the area
compared to today.

Temperatures through the short term will be fairly similar to what
we`ve been experiencing lately. Afternoon high temperatures in the
low 90s along the coast with areas along and north of I-10 in the
mid to upper 90s. Heat indicies will climb into the 100 - 105 degree
range, but isolated spots may spike higher at times. Overnight
temperatures will not provide much relief with lows in the mid 70s
in land and low 80s along the coast.

Fowler


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...
Weakening of the upper ridge over TX should take place Saturday
night as an upper trough dips down int the Lower MS valley on
Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday night should be
mainly in the east/northeast with the approaching weak cold front
with warm and humid conditions yet again. Sunday may be an active
weather day across the area with the front slowing and stalling
(probably over the northern CWA) and with abundant moisture pooled
along the boundary (2-2.2" PW) and northwest flow aloft with the
upper trough tailing through the area. CAPE of 1500-2800 but only
LI of -3 to -5 and low shear starting off with scattered storms
likely multicellular/clusters for the storm mode. Gusty winds and
heavy rain the main threats Sunday into Sunday night. POPs on
Sunday - 30 near the coast, 50s central and 50-60 central and
north closer to the front. These may need adjusting up if the
pattern holds but August storms have a way of throwing the
mesoscale monkey wrench into the forecast. Fred should be moving
into the Florida Panhandle region at this point so no threat here.
The upper trough swings by and will need to keep an eye out for
small disturbances in the relaxing northwest/westerly flow aloft
on Monday but rain chances should still be well above climo.
Tuesday another upper trough is dropping through the Plains and
will bring another shot of scattered storms to the area Tuesday
and possibly Wednesday before upper ridging noses in from the
east. The upper ridge moves overhead on Thursday and should lower
rain chances. Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday should be near
normal for highs with the rain/clouds although mins will run well
above normal. Wednesday through Friday should follow a warming
trend on both max and min temperatures with southerly flow
increasing slightly.

45


.MARINE...
Scattered storms will be possible today and Saturday then should
taper off in coverage and intensity as focus shifts inland near
the cold front Sunday. Winds of 10-15 knots and low seas diminishing
to closer to 10 and eventually becoming east and northeast as
front stalls. Will need to keep a close eye on storms Sunday as
outflow could strengthen the winds near Galveston Bay and
nearshore waters as well as become a focus for storms if the
mesoscale wins out.

45


.TROPICAL...
Tropical Depression Fred...NHC maintained the same track early
this morning taking it near Cuba through the Florida Keys and
northwest and north along the western coast of Florida. No impacts
expected in SETX from Fred. Will be watching the next system in
the Central Atlantic (70% chance of development) to become more
organized but models of course differ on the eventual track...GFS
is much further east...way northeast of the Bahamas while the
ECMWF looks more sheared and far less organized and further west
in closer to Cuba/Caribbean Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 96 75 96 75 93 / 20 10 40 20 60
Houston (IAH) 94 77 96 77 94 / 40 20 40 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 81 91 / 50 20 30 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[jasons2k]

No measurable rain here since July 27. Just sayin’

Our rain late last week has run out of gas. Time to water after mowing.

Electrical and tile in?

Tile is on Day 3, hopefully will finish today. Still waiting on electrical and plumbing. The pool builder said they had three in front of me for plumbing, so it may not be for awhile.

Maybe rain chances creeping back up for awhile. We’ll see.

[Kingwood36]

Next..I don't believe 95 is our problem

[jasons2k]

Next..I don't believe 95 is our problem

Probably not at this point. September awaits.

[don]

Yep looks like a possible threat to the Carolinas/southeast at this point. The reason being is its faster development which should allow PTC 7 to feel the weakness over the southeast more. And its fast forward speed,allowing it to catch up to the weakness before ridging builds. With persistent troughing in place it may be hard to get a storm this year all the way from the mdr. Homebrew activity may be the main threat this season for us locally.

[Stratton20]

I think we will start to see more home grown systems once the MJO moves into Phase 3, typically in Phase 3 the Gulf Of Mexico and Western Caribbean are really favored for development

[Cpv17]

Yep looks like a possible threat to the Carolinas/southeast at this point. The reason being is its faster development which should allow PTC 7 to feel the weakness over the southeast more. And its fast forward speed,allowing it to catch up to the weakness before ridging builds. With persistent troughing in place it may be hard to get a storm this year all the way from the mdr. Homebrew activity may be the main threat this season for us locally.

That doesn’t fit August climatology at all really. More like late September or October. Strange.

[Cromagnum]

Yep looks like a possible threat to the Carolinas/southeast at this point. The reason being is its faster development which should allow PTC 7 to feel the weakness over the southeast more. And its fast forward speed,allowing it to catch up to the weakness before ridging builds. With persistent troughing in place it may be hard to get a storm this year all the way from the mdr. Homebrew activity may be the main threat this season for us locally.

That doesn’t fit August climatology at all really. More like late September or October. Strange.

Zero 100 degree days in Houston this summer doesn't fit climatology too much either. Nor does the deep freeze we had. It's a strange year.

[jasons2k]

Yep looks like a possible threat to the Carolinas/southeast at this point. The reason being is its faster development which should allow PTC 7 to feel the weakness over the southeast more. And its fast forward speed,allowing it to catch up to the weakness before ridging builds. With persistent troughing in place it may be hard to get a storm this year all the way from the mdr. Homebrew activity may be the main threat this season for us locally.

That doesn’t fit August climatology at all really. More like late September or October. Strange.

We never had a typical summer pattern setup this year. The whole atmosphere is jacked. Has anyone read about the forest fires in Siberia? It dwarfs what is happening here in the Northwest US. Sad to see. It’s like the whole planet is burning up this year, adding even more junk to the atmosphere, like a terrible feedback mechanism.

Not trying to be Debbie Downer on a Friday but I just became aware of this in the last few days and it’s troubling.

[Kingwood36]

Yep looks like a possible threat to the Carolinas/southeast at this point. The reason being is its faster development which should allow PTC 7 to feel the weakness over the southeast more. And its fast forward speed,allowing it to catch up to the weakness before ridging builds. With persistent troughing in place it may be hard to get a storm this year all the way from the mdr. Homebrew activity may be the main threat this season for us locally.

That doesn’t fit August climatology at all really. More like late September or October. Strange.

We never had a typical summer pattern setup this year. The whole atmosphere is jacked. Has anyone read about the forest fires in Siberia? It dwarfs what is happening here in the Northwest US. Sad to see. It’s like the whole planet is burning up this year, adding even more junk to the atmosphere, like a terrible feedback mechanism.

Not trying to be Debbie Downer on a Friday but I just became aware of this in the last few days and it’s troubling.

Here's hoping to another cold winter! Not freezing Temps like last yr but cold and some precip!

[DoctorMu]

Yep looks like a possible threat to the Carolinas/southeast at this point. The reason being is its faster development which should allow PTC 7 to feel the weakness over the southeast more. And its fast forward speed,allowing it to catch up to the weakness before ridging builds. With persistent troughing in place it may be hard to get a storm this year all the way from the mdr. Homebrew activity may be the main threat this season for us locally.

That doesn’t fit August climatology at all really. More like late September or October. Strange.

We never had a typical summer pattern setup this year. The whole atmosphere is jacked. Has anyone read about the forest fires in Siberia? It dwarfs what is happening here in the Northwest US. Sad to see. It’s like the whole planet is burning up this year, adding even more junk to the atmosphere, like a terrible feedback mechanism.

Not trying to be Debbie Downer on a Friday but I just became aware of this in the last few days and it’s troubling.

Coincides with the latest IPCC report.

So, the ridge weakens after today here in SETx and gives us a nudge again on Tuesday for a few days. But if I'm reading the 500 mb heights on GFS and Euro...the summer death ridge may be history after that (by next weekend). We'll see.