August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Cpv17]

We now have invest 95L.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 wow thats fast

[sambucol]

Is 95L the one that TexasBreeze mentioned?

[Cromagnum]

All I know is that it's pretty danged hot outside right now. That gulf water outta be cooking.

[Stratton20]

Sambucol yes it is

[Cpv17]

Yikes!

[Stratton20]

CPV17 wow! Thats nuts

[Cpv17]

CPV17 wow! Thats nuts

Yep and anything that develops in that region has a high chance of making it into the Gulf where water temps are approaching 90°F.

[TexasBreeze]

Seems like a new invest is declared out there everyday now with each new wave!

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yeah this is definitely a troubling sign ahead

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu no the 12z Euro takes the CV system and propagates whatever it becomes westward into the GOM as an open wave *right now*

A bit of deviation from 00z. A very open wave. IF true, there might be rain. An organized system = Louisiana + 100°F here.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 12&fh=168

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101736
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly near KSGR, KHOU, KIAH and KCXO terminals. Gusty
winds from 15 to 20 knots will also be possible through early
evening. Light and variable winds tonight will then increase up to
10 knots through Wed morning. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions
will once again be possible around KCLL early Wed morning.
Isolated coastal showers are expected over the coastal terminals
late tonight into early Wed morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the period. 05

[Cpv17]

Way too early to be talking about any landfall destinations right now but there’s probably a 50/50 chance we could have a developing system in the Western Caribbean or Gulf next week imo.

[Scott747]

No surprises with a huge swing between the 6z and 0z GFS. It's went from a cat 3/4 into Corpus to a weak tropical storm around Tampico. It's still tracking the wave currently to the sw of the CV islands without any real intensification until the approach into the Caribbean and also having issues resolving another wave behind it.

We'll see if it continues to build some more consistency over the next few days or drops it. So far even with the usual swings in the long range I've been impressed with the upgrade of the GFS and its ensembles earlier this year.

Just curious but I’ve noticed it seems like you don’t put much stock into ensembles and mainly rely on op runs. Why is that? I was always told ensembles are the way to go especially in the longer range.

Resolution, Resolution and finally Resolution. Especially once NOAA and Air Force Hunter data is ingested.

With that said I've always put stock in the ensembles and as mentioned just above I've been impressed with the upgrade to not only 31 members but you guessed it - The resolution was improved with the ensemble members.

[Stratton20]

Interesting to note that we have a lot of thunderstorm activity near the yucatan just something cool to look at

[Cpv17]

The NHC has upped 95L to 30%

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yup here we go , we got a long while to track this one

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111018
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
518 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...
Typical warm start this morning and with a narrow plume of deeper
moisture over the region with a shrinking area of drier air
near Galveston and into the nearshore waters but deeper moisture
lurking over the offshore waters and will be spreading northwest
into the region this afternoon/evening. The upper low south of the
Sabine pass will begin drifting west and then get absorbed into an
inverted trough near Matagorda Bay tonight. This is going lead to
an increase in moisture over the area and PW climb from 1-6-1.8
inches today into the 1.8-2.0 inch range Thursday and Thursday
night.

Today expecting it to feel hotter with the increase in moisture
and heat indices of 105-110 should be widespread. Heat advisory
issued and by 10 am coastal areas will likely exceed 104 with the
inland areas only an hour or two behind. Temperatures this
afternoon should peak at 91-92 degrees on the coast and 96-99 well
inland...don`t think we will reach the century mark. Some relief
from the heat could come from isolated showers this morning and
then isolated to widely scattered showers an thunderstorms after
10 am. SSE winds will be the norm with some gusts this afternoon
up near 15 mph...near storms 25-30 mph winds more likely. By 6 pm
expect storms to be dissipating and probably north of the I-10
corridor by that time. Mostly clear skies should follow which will
be good news for those getting out to catch the Perseid meteor
shower (likely peak viewing time Thursday morning) with just a
sliver of moon to hamper the hunt.

Thursday with the increased moisture over the region and on the
east side of the upper shear axis expecting scattered showers and
thunderstorms a little earlier in the morning than today and
persisting into the early evening hours. Heat advisory may be
needed again on Thursday.

45


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

There`s only so many ways to say that it`s hot and
showers/thunderstorms will be possible every day...fortunately there
is a "cold" front on the horizon over the weekend that will shake
things up a bit. Before that though, Friday and Saturday will
feature our typical summertime pattern: high temperatures in the mid-
to-upper 90s, heat index values in the 105-108 degree range, and a
chance of showers/storms mainly for the afternoon hours. Now for
what everyone has been waiting for...a cold front! If you read that
and went to go grab a jacket out of the closet, you might want to
put it back...sorry! Global models are in agreement that the front
makes it to at least the coastline on Sunday, but the main impact it
will bring is an increased chance of rain due to enhanced moisture
convergence. Resultingly, PW values increase above 2" through
Monday, so rain chances will linger through the night on Sunday.
While temperatures won`t drastically decrease, they will be SLIGHTLY
"cooler" on Sunday. Instead of highs in the mid-to-upper 90s, we`ll
have highs in the low-to-mid 90s, which is slightly below normal for
this time of year. I`ll take it!

Going into early next week, we`ll return back to our typical
summertime pattern once again. Yesterday`s models indicated that an
upper-level low would develop in the Upper Midwest early next week.
The latest run of models have mostly backed off of this and now show
a weak upper-level trough. The Euro extends the trough further
southwest into Texas and the GFS keeps the trough well northeast of
our area. Unsurprisingly, the Euro is the wetter of the two
solutions with a deeper trough putting Southeast Texas in line for a
few shortwaves to interact with the plentiful moisture that we have
in place. Split the difference of these two solutions in the grids
with 30% PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Again mainly VFR for this package. Some early morning 600-1500ft
ceilings will be possible near CLL/UTS improving by 14z. Isolated
to widely scattered showers this morning near the coast spreading
inland and with the development of the seabreeze may reach into
the IAH/CXO areas by 18z with TSRA but the more likely window
should be 19-22z. Will continue with the VCTS in the TAFs as
confidence that storms will directly impact these sites is still
low but should have some storms around. With loss of heating
expect a quick demise and VFR to dominate this evening. Patchy
MVFR/IFR ceilings possible across the north again Thursday morning
and possibly some fog as well there.
45

&&

.MARINE...


&&

.TROPICAL...
Tropical Storm Fred (yes really Fred) forecast to move along the
northern Caribbean Islands and into the Florida area. At this
point SETX should not have any impacts from Fred. A second area of
showers and thunderstorms southwest of the Cabo Verde islands
looking a little more organized and NHC had chances up to 30
percent for development through day 5.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The warm overnight temperatures tied or set records again at
IAH/HOU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 98 76 97 76 95 / 10 10 10 0 20
Houston (IAH) 97 79 96 78 95 / 20 0 30 0 50
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 91 83 90 / 20 20 30 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Austin...Bolivar
Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island...Grimes...Houston...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...Batiste
SHORT TERM...45

[DoctorMu]

So much for Fred. Next! Look, Ma - no sharpie to Mississippi!



CV storm - 40% development. Still seen to diverge from the S.A. conveyor belt.

[Kingwood36]

95l looks to be heading the same direction as Fred..maybe it's FL yr to get all of them lol