July 2021

[Cpv17]

It’s over 100 here now. Not just me but several station on the Wundermap are also in the triple digits. It’s hot!!!

Nowhere near 100 here in Rosenberg. 94°F feels like 106.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro and GFS ensembles both generally track 90L into the Gulf and to the west, ensemble spread is anywhere from Texas to the Florida Panhandle

[Kingwood36]

12z Euro and GFS ensembles both generally track 90L into the Gulf and to the west, ensemble spread is anywhere from Texas to the Florida Panhandle

We have 90l? Where?..
Edit: nevermind found it

[Stratton20]

KingWood36 haha yeah NHC just labeled that area 90L Yesterday or today I believe, regardless just something to casually watch

[Rip76]

A little bit of cloudiness just shot out into the gulf below Mississippi.

[Stratton20]

Rip76 I think that might be associated with 90L, does have some background Vorticity to it tho, enhanced MJO phase is beginning to enter the gulf, interesting times ahead

[Stratton20]

90L currently is located in a pocket of Mid level shear which is probably why the NHC environmental conditions only appear marginal for some development , however I believe if this gets into the gulf, it will encounter a much more conducive environment for development, low wind shear and low mid level shear, combine that with an enhanced MJO phase moving in, I think we might see some surprises with this one, Hope it develops, this weather has been boring lately, we need some excitement

[DoctorMu]

Today's the first real Feels Like Surface of the Sun day. Cloudless sky. Upper 90s. Dewpoint in mid 70s. Hardly a breath of wind.

Yesterday had a breeze and lower DP in CLL, and especially in our visit near Waco.

[Stratton20]

Active Phase of the MJO moves in to the Atlantic this week, will be interesting to see if anything flares up, 90L probably wont develop aince we are still in a suppressed phase right now, that ULL to the east of 90L looks really healthy though

[Rip76]

Getting closer and closer to blast furnace.
Ugh.

[Stratton20]

Yall its the dog days of summer right now, this heat should not be surprising

[Katdaddy]

Peaceful Upper TX Coast Summer weather as the tropics sleep for now.

[Stratton20]

Katdaddy that might be changing soon in terms of the tropics, active MJO phase promoting upward motion and rising air looks to cross into the atlantic around the 29th

[Katdaddy]

Yep this is the time to be prepared.

[Stratton20]

Katdaddy Yup! Im not saying anything will definitely form this week or over the next 7-10 days, however with an active MJO approaching the gulf and caribbean in the next few days, its best to be prepared just in case something tries to form

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 261653
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1153 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.AVIATION...

Drier air mixing to the surface will help in eroding residual
cloud cover this afternoon with generally VFR conditions for the
rest of the day and into tonight. SREF data supports some patchy
fog and low ceilings W-SW of Houston so will need to watch for
MVFR conds after 09z. A disturbance moving into the area from the
east could bring some later aftn thunderstorms to the area after
21z. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 327 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/...

DISCUSSION...

The forecast continues to focus on heat, with temperatures near or
above average for late July, and driving heat index values to just
short of heat advisory thresholds. Ridging releases its grip over
us just enough to expect some isolated to scattered afternoon
showers and storms in the mid-week. This shift is only a brief
one, however, as the ridge looks to roar back for a repeat of a
hotter and drier weekend.

SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...

Another hot and dry day is on tap for the region today. Sfc high
pressure centered over the TX Coast/western Gulf will continue to
bring drier conditions and a thin layer of Saharan dust into the
region. Highs will once again climb into the mid to upper 90s. With
dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will reach
the 100-106 degrees. Tonight will continue to be mild and relatively
dry, though a few showers may develop along the coast by early
morning.

Weather pattern changes slightly this week with chances for showers
and storms returning to the region. Ridging aloft centered over the
central CONUS will remain under control; however, several mid-level
shortwaves will begin to slide westward along the southern fringe of
the ridge; hence, moving into the region. The combination of these
weak impulses, daytime heating, and moderate increase in low level
moisture will allow for some showers/storms, mainly in the
afternoon/evening. Have introduced chances for precipitation for
Tuesday afternoon into early evening, with better chances over the
northeastern counties (areas east of I-45 and north of I-10). Hot
conditions will continue, though increased cloud cover may bring
temperatures a few degrees cooler. Highs will range from the low to
mid 90s.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Little change in where the focus is for the long term section of
the forecast - how strong is the dominant Plains ridge, where
exactly is it, and what will the timing be on any shortwave
troughs rolling through the area on the southern edge of that
ridging?

With an upper low moving into Northeast Mexico just south of the
Rio Grande, that should put enough of a dent in the ridge for some
isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon...but,
better rain chances look to hold off until Thursday or perhaps
even Friday, depending on how quickly we get movement on a weak
trough along the northern Gulf coast. This isn`t likely to be a
driver of convection on its own, but may allow for capping over
the area to degrade enough to get some more diurnal showers and
storms to crop up in the afternoon.

Temperature-wise, I`ve stopped nudging the high temperature
forecast down from the NBM mean, given that it appears showers and
storms will be a little harder to come by on that day. Continued
highs in the middle 90s for most away from the coast, and some hot
spots pushing into the upper 90s are forecast. Beyond Wednesday,
even though scattered showers and storms are still in the
afternoon forecast which will likely knock down highs for
some...guidance is not taking the midlevel ridge as far north, and
850 mb temps will be on the way up due to flow around the inverted
trough, so I`ve even largely given up on cooler temps there and am
sticking with essentially the NBM mean, whose statistically post-
processed output is on the warm end of the raw guidance.

Ultimately, I`m dithering only a few degrees here or there.
Whether it`s low to middle 90s or middle to upper 90s in the
afternoon, it`s going to be near or above seasonable highs, with
similarly above normal low temperatures. Welcome to the end of
July, and the depths of summer, y`all.

MARINE...

Light to moderate south to southwest winds are expected to
persist through the first half of the week. Rain chances will
slowly increase Tuesday through Friday morning, but drier weather
is expected to return for next weekend. With the generally light
winds, expect quiet seas of one to two feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 75 96 75 95 / 0 0 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 98 77 96 77 97 / 0 0 30 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 82 91 / 10 10 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Stratton20]

I have a feeling we are going to have quite a few surprise storms in the tropics during August and beyond, the majority of the model guidance shows a favorable MJO phase in the atlantic during The first week of August while the GFS keeps us in a suppressed phase ,not buying that at all, an active phase is coming, I expect we will start seeing activity pick up by around the 1st or so

[DoctorMu]

Hmmmm...00z GFS brings a surprise back door front into SETX in the Aug 3-5 window. Would be nice...but then we'd really have to keep an eye on the GoM.

...and indeed it appears to inspire a trough or tropical wave around Aug 7.

00z Canadian and Euro also sniff out the front around the same date. Interesting.

We'll see if this fantasy remains in the models this week...

[Cromagnum]

Some kind of squall parallel to the coast all morning. Hoping it moves inland some.

[Texaspirate11]

Today is the history of the 1943 secret storm. If y'all are on twitter go to the HGX NWS twitter feed and read the fabulous
history of our storm - researched by the amazing Bill Read. Worth the read for those of us who love hurricane history.