Hurricane season 2020 opinions

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sambucol
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Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Post by sambucol » Tue May 19, 2020 10:37 pm

Opinion of this coming hurricane season? Active or not so? Opinions on most likely parts of the Gulf Coast as target areas?

Pas_Bon
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Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Post by Pas_Bon » Wed May 20, 2020 5:36 pm

Very active, IMO. Neutral ENSO likely (if not teetering on La Niña conditions.....SST’s through the roof)
Regarding targets....impossible to peg down at this point.

mcheer23
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Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Post by mcheer23 » Thu May 21, 2020 9:48 am

NOAA has released their Hurricane Forecast.

13-19 Named Storms
6-10 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes.

Above Average season.

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jasons2k
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Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Post by jasons2k » Thu May 21, 2020 2:06 pm

I’ve been meaning to post an email from a local met, Nathan Moore, but it had images and I don’t know how to include them
with our size restrictions. But the bottom line was a very busy season, potentially a hyperactive season, and 2005 was one of his analogue years. And the entire Texas coast was in his “red” zone.

cperk
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Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Post by cperk » Sun May 24, 2020 4:43 am

The 00z GFS has a 994mb tropical storm off the Louisiana coast at hour 384 6/9.

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Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Post by cperk » Sun May 24, 2020 2:03 pm

The 12z EC has a tropical system in the BOC at hour 240.

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Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Post by cperk » Sun May 24, 2020 2:06 pm

cperk wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 2:03 pm
The 12z EC has a tropical system in the BOC at hour 240 coming-up from the eastern pacific.

Pas_Bon
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Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Post by Pas_Bon » Sun May 24, 2020 2:41 pm

cperk wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 2:03 pm
The 12z EC has a tropical system in the BOC at hour 240.
Multiple models now are picking up on “something.”
Exact location and strength matters not....fact is that the Gulf/BOC/NW Caribbean bears watching over the next couple weeks.

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Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Post by Scott747 » Wed May 27, 2020 11:44 am

These late May GFS runs keep getting better and better every year.

12z is a doozy.

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Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Post by Cpv17 » Wed May 27, 2020 1:20 pm

12z Euro has a low trying to form in the BOC at the end of the run around day 9 or 10.

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