February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
Posts: 1113
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:02 am

djmike wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:33 pm
80-90% rain and storms forcasted for us in Bmt Yesterday and today. Not a single drop. Why so high percentage and no rain? Has all stayed well north of SETX. Nws has 90-100% for us tomorrow. We’ll see how that plays out, but so far for two straight days, its been a bust here atleast.
Huge bust all across SETX. Hardly a drop anywhere for the most part. I don’t recall such a big bust happening before in my recent memory.

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2590
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:05 pm

00
FXUS64 KHGX 121752
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020


.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Most recent radar imagery is showing a line of showers associated
with an advancing boundary pushing through SE Texas, with the
northern terminals reporting precipitation at the onset of the TAF
period. Showers along this line are expected to reach the metro
terminals around 19-20Z and the coast by 21-22Z. IFR to MVFR cigs
have persisted at most locations through the morning hours, but a
gradual improvement is expected later this afternoon as the
advancing boundary pushes offshore. VFR conditions look to return
tonight as drier air enters the region behind the departing
front. Lighter winds and clearer conditions along with a
saturated surface from this afternoon`s rainfall could allow for
the development of some patchy fog, but widespread visibility
concerns akin to what the area has experienced over the past few
days are not expected.

Cady

&&

Cpv17
Posts: 1113
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:13 pm

The models sure change quickly. Euro is back to being dry now lol

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 2932
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:06 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:02 am
djmike wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:33 pm
80-90% rain and storms forcasted for us in Bmt Yesterday and today. Not a single drop. Why so high percentage and no rain? Has all stayed well north of SETX. Nws has 90-100% for us tomorrow. We’ll see how that plays out, but so far for two straight days, its been a bust here atleast.
Huge bust all across SETX. Hardly a drop anywhere for the most part. I don’t recall such a big bust happening before in my recent memory.

I had .07” today and .01” yesterday. We were supposed to average 1-2 inches north of I-10 and 3-4 inches in the Lake Livingston area. Yeah, I would agree this was a pretty big bust.

User avatar
djmike
Posts: 925
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by djmike » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:29 am

Yup. I finally got a sprinkle yesterday as the front passed. NOTHING compared to what was forecasted the last 3 days. 5 day total is 0.05. :-/
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College St. area)

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19090
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:25 am

Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Surface cold front has finally pushed well offshore ending the light rain, drizzle and fog of the last several days.

Clouds have cleared early this morning, but nighttime RBG images show a low level stratus deck racing SSW from N TX toward the area. Forecast models show little in the way of surface to 800mb moisture (NAM shows about 70% saturation in this layer), but the satellite does not lie and the advection southward of this cloud deck into SE TX is looking likely. This low level deck in already to Lake Livingston and nearing Huntsville and will likely arrive toward I-10 in the next 1-2 hours. Better mixing and drier air may limit its SW expansion down toward Matagorda Bay. Since forecast models are not handling the deck well, not sure how long it will take to break up this morning and exactly how far south it will advect.

Drier air mass should finally clear skies later today allowing a fairly cold night with temperatures falling into the 30’s for most areas. Near freezing temperatures will be possible in the Huntsville to Crockett to Livingston area…and while a light freeze is not usually of much harm…the warmth of late has resulted in vegetation breaking dormancy early (about 20-25 days earlier than normal) and sensitive buds could be damaged.

Clear skies and slightly below normal mid February temperatures should dominant on Friday with lows in the 30’s and highs in the 50’s. High level clouds begin to increase from the SW late in the day…a harbinger of another incoming period of dreary weather.

Next upper level storm system will drop into the SW US this weekend and its position to our west will yet again induce SW flow aloft over TX allowing a tap of eastern Pacific mid and upper level moisture to overspread the region. Additionally, as the current surface high moves eastward, onshore flow returns by Saturday afternoon and Gulf moisture begins its return to the area. Clouds will thicken on Saturday, but will hold off on any rain chances until Saturday night and Sunday and even then will keep them around 30% and mainly near the coast.

SW flow aloft will continue through much of next week, so expect cloudy and gloomy conditions from Sunday onward into the end of next week. Dewpoints begin to get up around 60-65 by late Sunday into Monday and expect another extended period of sea fog to develop along the upper TX coast spreading into the inland bays and coastal counties. Rain chances will hold in the 30-40% chance range daily as moisture flows inland off the Gulf and weak disturbances in the SW flow aloft cross the area. Not looking at much in the way of rainfall amounts…maybe .25 of an inch from Sunday-Tuesday (very similar to this past week…more drizzle, fog, and light showers). High temperatures should get into the 70’s on Sunday and maybe the mid to upper 70’s on Monday (depending on if there are any breaks in the low level clouds and fog). Shallow, yet cold, front will likely arrive around the late Tuesday/early Wednesday time frame allowing a cold air mass to enter the region. Moisture looks to remain in place behind the front so instead of warm and gloomy it will be cold and gloomy.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

Cpv17
Posts: 1113
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:58 am

0z Euro is downright frigid days 7-10 with light winter precip.

Cromagnum
Posts: 848
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:15 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:58 am
0z Euro is downright frigid days 7-10 with light winter precip.
Image

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 2932
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:28 pm

That wind today is COLD! Geez make it stop!

Cpv17
Posts: 1113
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:40 pm

Today’s updated CPC forecast raises an eyebrow for next week.

Post Reply