February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:12 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:29 pm
I'm on the cool side so I enjoyed my run without sweating to death.


So, bad news for me. The earliest Spring in 39 years in the SE per the Phenology Society.

https://www.usanpn.org/news/spring

Grackles are back 2-4 weeks early....and the weeds are out of control here in Texas. The spring insects are going to be murder. Could be an early and devastating tornado season in the South and Southern Plains as well. If there's limited shear in the Atlantic tropics in August and September, hurricane season could be another record setter.

[click on image for animation]
Those are very cool maps! Thanks for posting!

I wonder why on the 2nd set of graphics the subtitle says “How often do we see Springs like 2019?”

I think they meant 2020?

Also, the NWS lowered my rain chances for the rest of tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Still 90% for Wednesday though.

Kingwood36
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Re: February 2020

Post by Kingwood36 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:21 am

What happend to this rain we were suppose to get?

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:06 am

Kingwood36 wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:21 am
What happend to this rain we were suppose to get?
They don’t have a good handle on the situation. Reading the NWS AFD, they are already walking back the heavy rain scenario. It’s also incredibly frustrating reading their reasoning. They are basically model watching at this point. What happened to good old-fashioned forecasting?

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srainhoutx
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Re: February 2020

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:13 am

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Cloudy and gloomy weather will continue through Wednesday and then again this weekend and much of next week.

Surface cold front has crept offshore overnight allowing a cool surface air mass with temperatures in the 50’s to move over much of the region. Most of the rainfall over the last 24 hours has been focused north of a line from College Station to Livingston near/along the 850mb front. The surface cold dome is fairly shallow, but moist SSW/SW flow aloft riding over the top of the surface cold dome will result in clouds, fog, drizzle, and light rain showers today into tonight…or February weather in SE TX. Expect rainfall amounts to average generally less than .25 of an inch today with amounts possible nearing .50 of an inch in the College Station to Livingston corridor.

Surface front has pushed the recent sea fog episode offshore this morning, but as the boundary begins to slowly lift northward later today, expect sea fog to once again approach the coast and move into the coastal counties and bays. Stronger cold front late Wednesday will then end the sea fog threat for a few days.

An upper level storm system over northern MX will move eastward and across TX on Wednesday. This system will result in surface low pressure forming over SE TX on Wednesday and the frontal boundary over the Gulf will lift northward as a warm front late tonight into early Wednesday. Lift increases from the SW late tonight into the first half of Wednesday and expect numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to develop over the area. A cold front will sweep through the region late Wednesday and the trough axis Wednesday night finally allowing a drier air mass to move into the region with decreasing clouds for Thursday. Temperatures behind the front late Wednesday could near freezing around Crockett Thursday and Friday mornings.

Enjoy the sun Thursday and Friday because we go back in the “soup” late Friday into Saturday. Weak upper level ridge moves quickly east and yet again an upper level trough drops into the SW US/N MX and induces SW flow aloft over TX from the eastern Pacific. Moisture returns Saturday and expect clouds and showers to develop. Warm air advection and increasing dewpoints over the nearshore waters this weekend will likely return the dense sea fog along the coast and this looks to linger into at least early next week. Chances for showers will be in the forecast Saturday-early next week.
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Re: February 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:55 pm

12z Euro continues to look good for rain. Basically everyone gets at least an inch or more over the next 10 days.

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tireman4
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Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:27 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111629
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Gloomy...isentropic upglide will keep it cloudy with periods of
light rain across much of the area today. Rainfall accumulations
will be primarily less than 1/10th of an inch. Further north
(closer to the 850 front) showers and even isolated thunderstorms
could bring amounts of around 0.50 inch north of a Brenham to
Groveton line. Diurnal temperature range today will be confined to
a small range...46-53 north...52-63 south. Sea fog is likely to
spread back into the area near the immediate coast as the offshore
winds in the wake of the cold front weaken and veer to the east
and southeast overnight.
45

&&

.MARINE...

Offshore winds have helped improve the visibility but not fully
across the bays. Nearshore waters though the fog remains and as
winds become more easterly late this afternoon/early this evening
expect the dense sea fog to scrabble it`s way back into the
ICW/Bays. Have hoisted a marine dense fog advisory for the
nearshore waters through 18z Wednesday ending with the cold front
passage. Will probably be expanding the marine dense fog advisory
into the bays in the afternoon package if the guidance is still as
bullish.
45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 550 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020/...





.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...

The cold front that came through the region during the day on
Wednesday should be in central Louisiana by Wednesday night.
However, the associated upper level trough will continue to swing
through SE Texas overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. This
means that the even though the front has pushed through, there will
still be some lingering isolated showers (mainly over the Gulf
waters) and that partly cloudy skies will linger through Thursday
morning. Now the skies are expected clear out from west to east
overnight Wednesday, but if is clears out a bit earlier than
anticipated, B/CS could dip into upper 30s by sunrise Thursday.
And I what to emphasize the SUN in SUNrise cause we will finally
see it again on Thursday! Skies will be mostly clear by Thursday
afternoon with temperatures climbing into the upper 50s north of
Houston Metro and into the low 60s Houston southward. These
temperatures are about 5 to 10 degrees below normal, which
combined with a breezy northerly wind will mean that it may feel a
bit brisk out on Thursday.

Clear skies and that northerly wind will bring temperatures down
into the upper 30s across most of the area Thursday night, but
Burleson County up through Houston County could flirt with near
freezing temperatures. Friday will be similar weather-wise, but
clouds will begin to increase from the south late Friday into
Saturday morning. Unfortunately, cloudy skies will continue through
midweek next week due to moist onshore flow persisting. Beginning
Sunday, there will be a chance of showers each day through
midweek next week as well. So, enjoy the sunny skies on Thursday
and Friday while you can.

Fowler


.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

A cold front remains off the coast this morning. AMDAR sounding
show a REALLY shallow frontal surface so expect there to be some
elevated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Thunderstorms may be
more likely Wednesday morning as a upper level trough approaches
the area. Until then, ceilings will likely be IFR the whole day
with a few pockets of MVFR when stronger showers develop. Cold
front off the coast is expected to stall and then push north
tonight. Winds should turn from northerly to southeast by
Wednesday morning. Quite possible IFR conditions will go down to
LIFR with pockets of dense fog along the coast for KGLS tonight.
Ceilings may not really improve until Wednesday night as a cold
front pushes through again.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 53 49 59 40 57 / 80 100 100 10 0
Houston (IAH) 60 58 68 46 59 / 80 80 100 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 62 62 70 52 60 / 50 60 80 30 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION...45
LONG TERM/DSS...LUCHS

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Re: February 2020

Post by Kingwood36 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:42 pm

So is it safe to say winter is pretty much over with?

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djmike
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Re: February 2020

Post by djmike » Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:33 pm

80-90% rain and storms forcasted for us in Bmt Yesterday and today. Not a single drop. Why so high percentage and no rain? Has all stayed well north of SETX. Nws has 90-100% for us tomorrow. We’ll see how that plays out, but so far for two straight days, its been a bust here atleast.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College St. area)

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:51 pm

djmike wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:33 pm
80-90% rain and storms forcasted for us in Bmt Yesterday and today. Not a single drop. Why so high percentage and no rain? Has all stayed well north of SETX. Nws has 90-100% for us tomorrow. We’ll see how that plays out, but so far for two straight days, its been a bust here atleast.
Yeah, I was able to get another run in tonight. Told my wife on Sunday there wasn’t a chance we’d get to run today. I layered and felt great. It really helps when there isn’t a stiff north wind.

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Re: February 2020

Post by Cromagnum » Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:10 am

Kingwood36 wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:42 pm
So is it safe to say winter is pretty much over with?
It was over back in December.

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