February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Katdaddy
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Re: February 2020

Post by Katdaddy » Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:24 am

Day 2 of the cloudy gloomy SE TX weather. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be associated with a slow moving cold front that will make it to the coastal counties overnight before lifting N as warm front. A second front will move across SE TX Wednesday afternoon with additional showers and thunderstorms. The sun returns Thursday and Friday before clouds and rain chances arrive for the weekend.

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Re: February 2020

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:34 am

Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Wet weather will persist in mid week.

A slow moving cold front currently extends from Longview to north of Austin and is creeping southward. Ahead of this boundary a warm and moist air mass covers all of SE TX this morning while north of the boundary a colder and somewhat drier air mass is in place. Radar is fairly calm this morning with a couple of lines of showers lifting north over the region in the warm air advection pattern in place. Surface cold front will near a Madisonville to College Station line later this morning and then likely stall in that region today. Focus for rainfall today will be mainly across the northern ½ of the region closest to the front. Rainfall amounts today could average 1-2 inches north of HWY 105 as another upper level disturbance approaches from the WSW and interacts with the slow moving front.

Front will get another push this evening and likely progress southward toward the coast tonight. With the afternoon and evening short wave disturbance moving off to the ENE expect a lull in any heavier rains by late evening across the northern portions of the area. Mainly light showers will impact the southern portions of the area this evening and overnight as the surface front stalls near the coast.

On Tuesday the surface front begins lifting back northward as a warm front with a continued chance of showers over the area. A strong upper level storm system currently digging into NW MX will begin to move slowly eastward and toward TX late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will result in the formation of a surface low pressure system over the coastal bend of TX Tuesday night which then moves ENE/NE across SE TX Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely in this period with some heavy rainfall possible. This surface low will be strong enough to finally push a stronger front through the region and clear the area out for at least a couple of days before clouds and rain chances return for the weekend.

Temperatures will be all over the place with the surface front stalling and then creeping across the area. Ahead of the front temperatures will be in the 70’s and then fall into the 60’s and possibly 50’s behind the boundary.

Rainfall Amounts:
Fairly tight rainfall gradient will setup across SE TX over the next 72 hours with much of the rainfall occurring north of HWY 105 and much lower amounts near the coast. This rainfall pattern is in response to the stalling location of the surface and 850mb fronts over the next 48-72 hours. Storm total rainfall amounts through Thursday morning will likely average 1-2 inches over much of the region north of I-10 and 3-4 inches in the Lake Livingston area. South of I-10 amounts of .50-1.0 inch will be possible. While the drought monitor shows dry conditions over much of the area, the time of year combined with lack of any vegetation growth and the widespread nature of the expected rains suggest rises on area creeks and rivers will be likely. Highest impacted watersheds look to be the mainstem and tributaries of the Trinity River and the San Jacinto basin. Currently QPF amounts are spread out enough to preclude any forecast to reach flood stage, but will need to watch rainfall trends today and again on Tuesday especially north of HWY 105. WPC does have the area around Lake Livingston outlooked in a slight risk of excessive rainfall today. Should rainfall totals begin to pile up in our NE counties (Polk, Trinity, Houston, San Jacinto) a flash flood watch could be required for those areas.

Sea Fog:
Other concern will likely be an extended period of sea fog along the coast and into the bays as dewpoints in the upper 60’s to near 70 flow across water temperatures in the upper 50’s and low 60’s. Warm and moist air flowing over the “cold” nearshore waters will chill the air to saturation leading to sea fog across the Gulf that will spread into the bays. With the expected front only barely reaching the coast late tonight and then only for a short time, expect conditions favorable for sea fog to remain in place until Wednesday. Visibilities will be bouncing around between 1-2 miles down to ¼ of a mile at times along the coast through the period. Stronger front later Wednesday should clear the sea fog conditions for at least 48 hours, but conditions look ripe again for sea fog by the weekend.

Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Monday):
02102020 Jeff 1.gif
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Tuesday):
02102020 Jeff 2.gif
Day 1-3 Forecast Rainfall Amounts:
02102020 Jeff 3.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: February 2020

Post by Cromagnum » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:14 am

Went ahead and rebuilt the raised bed garden to get an early jump on this years crop. Worst case, I can tempt the weather gods to send some late season cold weather our way. Nothing else has really worked so far.

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Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:32 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Expect MVFR to IFR CIGs through the period as moist southeasterly
flow continues across much of the area ahead of an approaching
cold front. This cold front will move through CLL around 10am
this morning, then slow and eventually stall near UTS around noon.
It eventually begins to move again and crosses IAH by around
midnight tonight. However, it stalls again near the coast late
tonight and then retreats inland through the day tomorrow. Expect
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms (mainly north of IAH)
this afternoon with showers continuing near the coast through
tomorrow morning. CIGS will remain between 500ft and 1000ft through
tomorrow morning, even behind the front. Sea fog has developed
this morning and has brought lower visibility to GLS, which is
expected to continue through tonight.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 342 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020/...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tuesday night)

As of 3am, the cold front that is expected to push into our region
later this morning is currently stationed from Texarkana, down
through just north of Waco, then stretching southwestward towards
northern Mexico. This front begins to encroach on Houston County
through Burleson County by around 13z this morning. As it does it,
there will be increased shower and thunderstorm activity for our
northern counties. This front is expected to stall around Washington
County up through Trinity County from 16z through around 3z tonight,
potentially even backtracking a bit. While there may be some
isolated to scattered showers south of the front due to the moist
onshore flow, most of the precipitation today will be along the
front boundary. Where this front ends up stalling might see up to
one to two inches through this afternoon, with areas in Trinity,
Houston, and Polk counties may getting some isolated higher amounts.
These areas are still being impacted by the drought, so the rain
will be welcomed and should not be much of a flash flood risk.

The front does get a push towards the coast later this evening and
overnight tonight and gets to the coast shortly after midnight. As
it pushes south the shower activity follows suit, but these will be
mainly light in nature. However, like before, the front ends up
stalling right along the coast through Tuesday morning. And if you
missed the front the first time, you`ll be able to say hello to it
again as it is expected to push back inland later in the day on
Tuesday.

Temperatures through the short term is largely dependent on the
front location. High temperatures this afternoon will get into the
mid 70s south of the front, while temperatures will be about 10
degrees cooler behind the front. Since the front is expected to push
all the way to the coast tonight, temperatures are expected to cool
into the mid 50s Houston Metro southward and down into the upper 40s
up towards College Station and up through Houston County. But since
the front pushes back inland through the day on Tuesday,
temperatures will climb back up to near 70 along the coastal
counties, while the northern counties may only get into the upper
50s.

Another factor in the short term that is largely dependent on the
location and timing of the front is the sea fog. Over the last few
hours, fog has developed along the coast and into the Bays due to
the southeasterly flow. This fog will last through the day today in
the near shore waters, but may dissipate for a few hours this
afternoon in the Bays due to increased mixing. If the fog does lift
for a few hours in the Bays this afternoon, it will be back tonight
as temperatures cool and warm Gulf waters get pushed into the Bays.
How long the fog lasts is really dependent on how far south the cold
front pushes through tonight. If it stalls out further inland, then
the fog will not dissipate, if it moves further off the coast then
there may be a break in the fog late tonight. Current guidance has
it stalling right at the coast, so it may end up being that the
northern reaches of Galveston Bay has lifting fog, while the
southern portion of the Bay remains in fog. A shift in the frontal
location by a even a mile will drastically alter the fog forecast
tonight. However, since the front is expected to retreat back in
land tomorrow, the fog will either redevelop or just continue into
Wednesday morning while we wait for the next front.

Fowler


.LONG TERM...(Tues night through Sunday)

An upper level low will be located over the southern Rockies
Tuesday night. The low will open up into an open wave and begin
to phase with another short wave over the western high plains. A
surface low will develop over South Texas on Tues night and begin
to move NE and drag a cold front into SE TX. The low will be over
Arkansas by 18z Wednesday and the trailing cold front will be
approaching the coast. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue Tuesday night as a few weak upper level disturbances
embedded in the SW upper flow skirt the region. The higher rain
chances should remain over the northern half of SE TX. The cold
front on Wednesday will also serve as a focus for showers and
storms. Jet dynamics look more impressive on Wednesday as SE TX
will lie in a strong RRQ. The best jet dynamics look to occur
after the frontal passage so it`s unclear if the extra lift will
have much in the way of low level mstr to work with. Will maintain
high PoPs on Wednesday but Wednesday afternoon might be overdone
if the front comes through faster than forecast. The upper level
trough axis lags and won`t cross the area until about 09z Thursday
so there could be some showers behind the front through Wednesday
night. Thursday looks cool and dry with high pressure over west
central Texas. A secondary surge of high pressure will come into
the region on Friday and this will reinforce the cool and dry
weather. More upper level energy will drop into the 4 corners on
Friday and this short wave will move east into the southern plains
on Saturday. The short wave will bring scattered showers and
storms to the area late Saturday into Sunday. The GFS is the most
aggressive with the short wave while the ECMWF builds a ridge
across the Gulf into SE TX. The Canadian is less aggressive than
the GFS but it does favor a similar solution with a fast moving
s/wv over the plains. Undercut MEX guidance for PoPs over the
weekend until a consensus forms between the much wetter GFS and
drier ECMWF. 43


.MARINE...

Fog has developed in the Bays and in the near shore waters tonight
and will persist through the next couple of days, although it could
wane for a few hours during the day today in the Bays. Seas of 6 to
8 feet in the off shore waters has resulted in a Small Craft
Advisory being issued through the day today. Seas in the near shore
will be 3 to 5 feet, so caution flags have been issued through the
morning. The onshore flow will continue the high risk of rip
currents along the Gulf facing beaches today, and will likely
continue tomorrow.

A cold front will approach the coastline late tonight into early
tomorrow morning before stalling out and retreating back inland
during the day on Tuesday. If it makes it to the coast it could
provide a brief reprieve from the fog in the Bays. As the front
nears the coast, it will also bring isolated to scattered showers. A
stronger front will push off the coast Wednesday morning bringing an
end to the fog threat, but will usher in moderate to strong offshore
flow on Thursday.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 67 48 59 51 59 / 90 60 80 90 80
Houston (IAH) 75 57 67 60 68 / 70 80 70 70 80
Galveston (GLS) 68 61 69 64 69 / 40 40 30 40 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX
out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

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Re: February 2020

Post by BlueJay » Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:55 pm

It's raining.

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:13 pm

I’ve hit 80F already. The rain has missed me so far. I’m actually hoping it holds off until this evening so I can get a run in after work.

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Re: February 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:03 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:13 pm
I’ve hit 80F already. The rain has missed me so far. I’m actually hoping it holds off until this evening so I can get a run in after work.
There’s really not much rain to be found anywhere in southeast TX today besides a few isolated light showers. It’s just disgusting out. Everything is sweating.

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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:24 pm

I got my run in. It was awesome - felt great to really sweat again. Ready for the rain now.

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Re: February 2020

Post by Cromagnum » Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:22 pm

No rain this weekend or today which gave me a chance to catch up on yardwork. Need gills to breathe this crap though.

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Re: February 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:29 pm

I'm on the cool side so I enjoyed my run without sweating to death.


So, bad news for me. The earliest Spring in 39 years in the SE per the Phenology Society.

https://www.usanpn.org/news/spring

Grackles are back 2-4 weeks early....and the weeds are out of control here in Texas. The spring insects are going to be murder. Could be an early and devastating tornado season in the South and Southern Plains as well. If there's limited shear in the Atlantic tropics in August and September, hurricane season could be another record setter.

[click on image for animation]
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