July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

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Katdaddy
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Re: July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

Post by Katdaddy » Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:59 pm

A beautiful tropical sky this afternoon.
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Re: July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

Post by jasons2k » Sun Jul 28, 2019 8:52 am

Yesterday I hit the jackpot. Had a tiny red spec on the radar parked on top my my house and rained itself out. I got a quick .50” of rain.

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Re: July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

Post by mckinne63 » Sun Jul 28, 2019 10:49 am

It's raining in Stafford! Woohoo! I saw the skies getting dark and the wind whipping up. Coming down at a good clip too.

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Re: July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

Post by Rip76 » Sun Jul 28, 2019 11:22 am

Radar is lit up this morning.

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Re: July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

Post by Cromagnum » Sun Jul 28, 2019 11:36 am

On and off bursts of sideways rain down in Rosharon. Pretty good line moving off towards Alvin and Clear Lake.

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Re: July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:25 pm

Aunneste - would you mind including links and supportive sites with your analyses?

We had a "10 year drought" in Texas. Enhances wind shear and dry air from Texas and Mexico are the mechanisms related to the hurricane "drought" cited by NOAA and from my remembrance. Areas of the SE were unfortunately not under a trough, but suffered rain drought, particularly Georgia.

https://www.weather.gov/bro/hurrprep

https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/ne ... august2016

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Re: July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

Post by Katdaddy » Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:51 pm

Picked up a quick well needed .60" of rain here in W League City.

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Re: July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:03 pm

Nothing but a sprinkle in my backyard.
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Re: July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

Post by unome » Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:09 pm

we had a nice shower, but I looked at radar &thought, "Jason must be getting dumped on"

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... v=rainfall
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... v=rainfall

some big discrepancies in short distances on the rain map, though

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Re: July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

Post by aunneste » Sun Jul 28, 2019 4:18 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:25 pm
Aunneste - would you mind including links and supportive sites with your analyses?
Monthly mean precipitation is modified mainly by convective inhibition (CIN) rather than by convective available potential energy (CAPE) or by precipitable water. Excessive CIN is caused by surface dryness and warming at 700 hPa, leading to precipitation deficits on a monthly time scale. While the dewpoint temperature and thermodynamics at the surface are greatly affected by the soil moisture, the temperature at 700 hPa was found to be statistically independent of the surface dewpoint temperature since the 700-hPa temperature represents free-atmospheric processes.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/1 ... JCLI2946.1
Some of the results in this section merit further comment. First, subsidence is enhanced in Texas when the influx of diabatically heated particles is dominant, but the elevation of Tlt is caused by the latter rather than the former. This process has been ignored in the previous studies of the 1980 and 1998 droughts that strongly affected Texas. Anticyclonic circulations in the upper troposphere have been assumed to trigger drought by serving as a block to cyclonic activity from the Pacific by displacing storm tracks north of the United States–Canadian border and/or by reducing low-level moisture by interfering with the influx of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Great Plains (Namias 1982). This study finds that anomalous circulations associated with the upper-tropospheric anticyclone induce increased transport of warm air from the elevated terrain into Texas, having a significant impact on initiating and maintaining warm season droughts in Texas by increasing CIN.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2010JCLI2947.1
But it’s not only luck that has been saving our coastlines from major hurricane damage. Over the past 10 years, there has tended to be an area of stronger-than-normal low pressure over the East Coast at the mid-levels of the atmosphere (about 18,000-feet high) during hurricane season.

This is an important feature because the winds at these levels steer hurricanes and determine the final path they take. Winds around this low pressure area help to push storms toward the north where they are picked up by the jet stream and carried away from the United States and out to sea.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... 284bbe5b84
Studies have found that when the NAO is negative, as it is now (Figure 1, above), it can worsen an ongoing summer drought in South Texas. Overall, significantly different ridge/trough patterns develop over North America, depending on the combined phase of ENSO and the NAO. Specifically, winters with El Niño/NAO+ conditions feature positive height anomalies (ridging) over the Great Lakes region, while negative height anomalies troughing) occur from Alaska’s Aleutian Islands to the west coast of North America. This contrasts with the large-scale flow observed in El Niño/NAO– winters, which are characterized by ridging over the western third of North America. The NAO may be an important modulating feature on El Niño impacts in the southwestern United States, namely, variability of winter season precipitation totals.
https://www.weather.gov/bro/2009event_heatwavereasons

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