It looks like some of the models are hinting at a little farther north track. That should increase our rain chances.

Also look at this:

GFS doesn't get a good grip on the storm and until a definite low forms the models will prob bounce around. One thing is looking pretty good and that is an increase rain chance for us here:

At this point I am pretty much speechless and saddened to have lost such as great friend as Dan. From the beginning when I joined this forum he was a great mentor and friend who taught me many of the weather things I now know. He truly was a great person who would never pass up a chance to help some...

it does recurve off the EC and then into NJ at 312hr... :roll: Yea I noticed from the 18z this run showed the trof a lot stronger, pushing the ridge west. This is 336 hours out though! 336 hours!!!!! That is a long time for this storm to track and not to mention the error spread that is going to co...

prob going to recurve:

174:

yeah Andrew...I have been taken a vacation from you guys for awhile....but I am back.... :D Gaston is crawling....got to think it will be faster than this....6 days and finally entering the carib....sheesh...I dont know if I can watch it that long.... Yea it seems like forever. This could be a thre...

nice big fat ridge you should see in summer.... :D http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_85v_096l.gif You're back! I see you over at 2k a lot but you need to check in here too :lol: Caribbean bound at 132: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs...

GFS keeps it weak through 48H:

I've heard reports of a dropsonde reporting 154 kts a few hundred feet above the surface, and of a measured 199 mph wind gust in the eyewall. Meanwhile, Earl seems to have killed the S2K server... Still works for me but others have reported the same. It is amazing how amazing this storm looks. I ha...

Playing catch up...behind Gaston...who turned on the switch?... ;) YET ANOTHER STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWAR...

Wxman's prediction:

"Do you think Gaston could end up hitting Southeast Texas?" Here's what he replied back: "Probably. I have it moving ashore just south of Freeport at 8:33pm on Monday, Sept. 13th."

*for those of you who didn't know, he was kidding.*

Doesn't get much more impressive than this:

Looks like a eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) may occur. Could be some nice images if that happens. ;) It is an amazing cyclone and just enough offshore, so far. Yes here is what wxman posted: As of 5PM CDT, the SEF/ERC probability model is now estimating an 82% chance of at least one event in the n...

Getting some convection... It is indeed picking up some convection. Lets see if it lasts though as I still believe it is a little too close to really get going. Hmm three storms in the Atlantic and a possible fourth (which is at a low lat) and not much board activity. :lol: http://www.boatus.com/hu...

What a beauty. Too bad the islands have to deal with this. One of the best looking hurricanes that I have seen in a good while. We need to keep track of this storm especially during the turn to the NE. That will be a big key to how fast and sharp of a turn it is. That could save or destroy the east ...

One thing to watch, is this storm is moving completely west right now. On the other hand the NHC has a little bit of a north component for the next check point. If this does not start moving to 275-280 degrees then it is going to go south of the point and continue that. The other aspect that I think...