Never, never underestimate warm core storms, especially at night. That's why old salt Mets are an incredibly invaluable resource. They've seen these systems, whether Atlantic or EPAC or Gulf, thwart the models and young buck Mets. OK, we have the Louisiana wave in SETX and drying radar in the Hill ...

1935 Texas Flood
https://pubs.usgs.gov/wsp/0796g/report.pdf

1936 Texas Flood
https://pubs.usgs.gov/wsp/0816/report.pdf

1940 Texas Flood
https://pubs.usgs.gov/wsp/1046/report.pdf

Floods On Small Streams In Texas
https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1966/0119/report.pdf

Tragically, the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau got hit by heavy rain and flooding. So many young lives have been lost.

Kerr County tragedy already one of the deadliest floods in Texas history
https://www.ksat.com/weather/2025/07/08 ... s-history/

It is now the 4th deadliest flood in Texas history.

Never, never underestimate warm core storms, especially at night. That's why old salt Mets are an incredibly invaluable resource. They've seen these systems, whether Atlantic or EPAC or Gulf, thwart the models and young buck Mets. OK, we have the Louisiana wave in SETX and drying radar in the Hill ...

This event has devastated me on a level which I cannot remember feeling since Katrina. I was stuck at a NOLA hospital during Katrina and afterwards. This caused all those memories to come flooding back. I know Harvey was horrible, too. I picked up my 11yo daughter from week-long Summer camp on Satu...

So much lives loss and grief.

Hill Country flood disaster: What we know about the victims so far
https://www.khou.com/article/news/local ... 28413edf47

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.4ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 remains the same. Region 3 warmed. Region 3.4 and 4 cooled.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 05, 2025 2:32 pm Mesos are pretty much useless right now. This is a very tricky forecast.

The mesos forecast did not see this morning's event. These type of events are tricky to forecast.

We are following closely here in Western North Carolina. It brings back so many bad memories of late last September as Helene impacted this Region. I recall the 1987 flood event for Kerr County. I am so devastated that so many young people have been impacted. How many times have warm cored remnant ...

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Fri Jul 04, 2025 9:23 am Is that the remnants of Barry possibly? If so that is why the system looks warm core this morning.

It is remnant of Tropical Storm Barry and moisture from Hurricane Flossie.

Core rains tend to happen at night.

‘A horrifying scene’: How flooding affected Hill Country residents’ homes, businesses and neighbors
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2025/07 ... neighbors/

Harrowing.

Central Texas could see heavy rain tonight. I saw forecast models showing some areas could see a foot of rain. https://www.weather.gov/ewx/forecasts Forecast Discussion 736 FXUS64 KEWX 040217 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 917 PM CDT Thu ...

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Jul 03, 2025 7:19 pm Picked-up a couple of inches here. For awhile, it rained as hard as it could. 6” - 9” hourly rain rates. Still nice and mild here. About to put a 15lb. brisket on the egg for tomorrow.

My weather station says “It’s raining cats and dogs” haha

That is some intense rainfall!

Halfway through the year already.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 0.4ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled, except for Region 4. It remains the same.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 17, 2025 7:44 pm There's some disgreement among models and ensembles, but I'll take some freshly squeezed lemonade for late June.

Let's hope for it.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed, except for Region 3.4. Region 3.4 remains the same.