Looks like 91L has two competing vortices with the eastern most winning the battle, but delaying development.

Read on another board that the wave that triggered 91L has moved west of it? How often do waves separate from a future TD/TS?

Looks like Don might be putting on a last minute growing spurt, which will hopefully push some rain farther north. Anyone see that, or is it me hoping?

I spy a little spin, just west/northwest of Jamaica. Also noticed low level cumulus changed motion just NE of Yucatan about 4pm CST. They were drifting NW in earlier frames, now drifting SW.

good chance Arlene reaches hurricane status before landfall.

Looks like some very light shower "feeder bands" are moving across Brownsville tonight.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

would like to hear thoughts on this afternoon/evening in central texas? have an outdoor event tonight.
thanks

Over the last few years, it would seem so, especially for Austin.

Houston
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_hou_normals_jun

Austin
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ewx/aus/attjundaily.pdf

Nice blow up just south of Jamaica at 11pm. Looks like it's right over the COC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

Good view of system in SW Carrib, plus the mysterious blob off the NC coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

Hint, blob was the t-storm complex that hit the NE over the last couple of days.

new t-storms firing from Waco to Junction. areas ahead of these storms are not under a tornado watch. is that going to change?

what's the story with these storms?

nasty stuff nw of Austin right now. 2 tornado warnings and hail the size of baseballs.

any storm reports?

impressive looking meso at the border. Uvalde currently has a tornado warning.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20Warning

Okay, when is the next good chance of NOT getting rain in central and southeast Texas?

No rain yet in Austin area. Rain chances in Austin were downgraded from 60 to 40% for tonight. Not a good trend.

srainhoutx wrote:Sounding data suggests near Century mark temps today for areas SW of downtown. Mid 90's appear to be in the forecast for this afternoon across the area.

Today's forecast high for Austin was 82, per NWS. It's already 85 at 11:30am.

Are the ingredients there for long-lived, EF4 or EF5s?

Very large area under flash flood warning now in Ark/Ok/Mizzou. Not sure if I've seen one that large before. http://www.weather.gov/ Updated to add that as of 6:15pm there are approx a dozen reports of tornadoes from Texas to Missouri. It's going to be a long afternoon and night for a lot of people.

Nasty looking storm with a tornadic signature SW of Fort Worth.

I don't recall ever seeing that much smoke from fires in Texas.

Austin hit 90 on March 23rd, 93 on April 1st and 92 today.

It's going to be a long, hot summer if we don't get some rain.