Good catch, Paul. I posted the NCEP ensemble TC genesis probs for 48 hours a day or two ago when they suggested some potential as a tropical wave moved W to WNW across the Yucatan into the SW Gulf. There is evidence of banding features as the storms over the NW Gulf head toward the Texas/NE Mexico ...

Gulf2.jpg Gulf.jpg Interesting images that I wanted to share...it appears there is a mid-upper level rather strong low pressure feature in the Southern GOM (red circle) that may be competing with the ULL currently entering the Texas panhandle. (black line appears to be the break area). RBG/WV and v...

Morning all...happy to see the influx of Gulf moisture on it's way! Central Texas has been getting much needed rain as well with some areas already 4+ inches. Great sat pic of the ULL and how it's affecting so much of the state. Looks like a lopsided tropical system...

Gulf.jpg IMHO chances of rain for S/E Texas are understated personally. Heavy rainfall possible/likely C/Texas and N/NCentral Texas but considering the elongated trough/areas of low pressure out over the GOM, am thinking this to all lift/shift W/NW towards S/E Texas next few days as the S/E GOM fet...

Ptarmigan wrote:Good to see rain coming back.

Thanks for your PDO/AMO analysis earlier...great reading.

CellsWebcam.jpg Morning all...no rain yesterday at my station, but crossing fingers today! Nice convective blow-up over Texas City area/bay moving inland...appears to be pulse type though and maybe sea-breeze driven. Looks like strong jet streak/flow from N/NE at mid-levels is ripping cells apart q...

Very interesting reading and learning about these anomalies and how they collaboratively affect the weather and patterns. I know it sounds "strange" maybe to some, but the real "continuing" drought for Texas it appears really began right after Ike's landfall in '08. Does anyone t...

Article on the PDO indicates a short positive phase. How long do these phase changes typically last? Would be great if it brought higher rain chances...if nothing changes soon, I expect that local municipalities will be initiating/upgrading/tightening water restrictions in the area.

Texas Sat.jpg Great sat pic showing a mid-upper level low feature moving West...the remnants of the ULL that moved onshore Sat evening my guess and associated with the trough draped across the Texas coast. Still a decent moisture profile offshore, although PW's are dropping in the Gulf, so expectin...

Am glad to see some areas getting much needed rain. What would be ideal, imo, is for a large yet weak tropical system to move into middle Texas coast, and then on into Central Texas...the State needs a break with this drought. A large enough system would, on a track like that, bring widespread rains...

Yup! Now its early morning when convection was to be heavy. Just looked at radar and its a joke. I sure hope this is our one and only let down! Im in Beaumont where the most was suppose to fall and not a drop! Local met just said 50% for today, lol...im not holding my breath!!!! Mike...am with ya. ...

This is interesting...satellite derived surface winds from 06Z this morning. Hmmmmm... I don't see anything at all
Of interest as well...the floater was taken down earlier, now it's back up.

Gulf really popping this morning...all I can say is "hmmmmm".

That's a precipitation model...useful, yes! No tropical storm or hurricane in my opinion. A rain-maker...we all hope! The farther North and West it moves, the better chances for rain over S/Central and S/E Texas/LA.

The GFS hasn't latched on to any system in the GOM/BOC this week. The graphic you posted shows multiple low pressure areas and nothing that appears closed off. This may well be the case as the system is fighting many obstacles. The NAM however shows a closed system and is taking it towards the TX/LA...

Wait. I'm confused. Why are the models wanting to bring this into Brownsville? I thought 94L was headed to the upper TX coast. What just happened? Models are just initializing now and there's quite a bit of disparity when they start. NAM and Navgem have been showing a Northerly track while GFS has ...

Howdy and great to meet ya! Of interest too (and just an aside) is during the 1989 season Jerry arrived as well (also a name for this season); the two previous storms were Allison (retired) in June and Chantal in August. When it hit, it marked the most number of Texas landfalls in one season since 1...

Remember Chantal well...brother and I were one of the few cars driving to Galveston to see it arrive. This system, if it develops, looks to be a rather tightly wound system as well.

Howdy howdy...rain dancing for SC, SE and Central Texas here! If no drenching rains soon, mandatory water restrictions will be issued soon my guess.

Invest 94L.jpg Katdaddy... Fellow neighbor here in League City. Thought I'd share this graphic showing a few interesting items. Red line is the track the low has taken since emerging off the Yucatan coast...been following for a few days now. Interesting feature/outflow to the N/NE with obvious W/SW...