July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[Stormrider]

It's raining on the East End of Galveston. The wind is out of the northeast. Keep hope alive!

[Rip76]

I guess you can stream KHB - 40 anymore.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail update from Jeff:

Gulf of Mexico trough axis/tropical wave taking its time approaching TX.

Deep tropical moisture axis clearly noted across the SW Gulf into the central Gulf states this morning with tail end of the central plains upper level trough still hanging over coastal TX. Tropical wave axis has merged with the eastern flank of the trough axis and this is helping to support numerous deep convection over much of the western and central Gulf of Mexico. Upper level wind shear remains a little too strong to allow storms to attempt to congeal and there is no indication of a surface circulation at this time. NAM model continues to try and spin up a surface circulation, but this solution is being discounted at this time in favor or a broad open trough.

Overall guidance has come in drier overnight and is really showing a strong rainfall gradient across the region from the coast inland. Models have actually been suggesting this pattern the past couple of days, but were showing some pretty hefty QPF amounts in isolated areas offshore suggestive of a surface low formation. We have now fallen within the shorter term range and within the range of the short term model guidance and they are also showing a fairly tight rainfall gradient. Really tropical air masses tend to focus their excessive rainfall over the water during the early morning hours and this appears possible starting Sunday over our region.

Tropical wave should reach the TX coast at some point on Sunday with deep moisture at least moving into the areas along and SE of US 59. Expect numerous storms offshore with scattered development inland along the seabreeze. Tropical air mass will produce some really good rainfall totals of 1-3 inches per hour under the stronger cells. Think there will be waves of rainfall moving inland off the NW Gulf for much of the day on Sunday, but the inland penetration is the big question mark and it is very possible that areas north of I-10 do not see much rainfall.

Should see better coverage on Monday and better inland push of the tropical air mass. Only potential problem could be coastal activity early in the morning which would “rob” the better moisture from the inland areas.

As for rainfall totals will go with 1-3 inches widespread along and SE of a line from Freeport to Friendswood to Liberty with isolated amounts of up to 5 inches. Rest of the area should see amounts of .50 of an inch to 1.5 inches over the next 72 hours.

Moist onshore flow pattern will remain in place for much of next week and this will result in at least scattered daily showers and thunderstorms.

[jasons2k]

Visible satellite clearly shows what Jeff is posting. Just a very long and broad trough axis offshore draped from south of LCH to S of Brownsville off the MX coast. It's almost stationary or very painfully slowly moving to the west. I am hopeful for a very gradual increase in coverage - it is already definitely more tropical feeling and looking outside today than in days past.

[Rip76]

Jason,
I looks like it may be moving back just a bit.

[Snowman]

It looks like a lot of convection is consolidating in the gulf right now. Tropical system or not I hope that all moves up into Texas.

[jasons2k]

I noticed something on water vapor loops. There is a circulation (mid level?) with a pocket of dry air that drifted over the Houston/Galveston bay area. Now, it is stationary near the entrance to Galveston bay. Maybe it will pull-up and it's going to drift back west?

Anyway, I think it's important because right along the coast, there is an elongated ribbon of dry air that was wrapped into that circulation, and it's slowly getting squeezed out. You can see the ribbon was draped from Corpus over Galveston and to Lake Charles this morning. It's important to note because that's where the soundings were taken, and that may be one reason why the models don't see the moisture moving in today. On water vapor, it looks like that ribbon of dry air is filling-in over time and disappearing. Something to watch for, I think.

[Rip76]

I noticed something on water vapor loops. There is a circulation (mid level?) with a pocket of dry air that drifted over the Houston/Galveston bay area. Now, it is stationary near the entrance to Galveston bay. Maybe it will pull-up and it's going to drift back west?

Anyway, I think it's important because right along the coast, there is an elongated ribbon of dry air that was wrapped into that circulation, and it's slowly getting squeezed out. You can see the ribbon was draped from Corpus over Galveston and to Lake Charles this morning. It's important to note because that's where the soundings were taken, and that may be one reason why the models don't see the moisture moving in today. On water vapor, it looks like that ribbon of dry air is filling-in over time and disappearing. Something to watch for, I think.

I was watching the same thing earlier.

[Rip76]

Flare up for sure

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html

[Texas Pirate]

wx briefing: Houston NWS:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing

[Ptarmigan]

Howdy and great to meet ya!

Of interest too (and just an aside) is during the 1989 season Jerry arrived as well (also a name for this season); the two previous storms were Allison (retired) in June and Chantal in August. When it hit, it marked the most number of Texas landfalls in one season since 1886! The pattern this year, with the long range hintings of a strengthening and elongating Bermuda high may drive any tropical systems toward the GOM with FL crossings as well. This season doesn't "appear" to be a "fish" season when the CV systems start to line up from the African coast in August/Sept.

Jerry reminds me of Humberto as they are small hurricanes. 1989 had many storms make landfall in the same region in one season. One interesting thing about 1886 is that Texas was affected by four hurricanes, which would not happen with Florida in 2004! Two of the four were major hurricanes, Indianola and Hurricane #10. Also in 1886, three hurricanes hit Florida Big Bend within a month! They were back to back, Hurricane #2, #3, and #4. They were not major hurricanes.

[TexasBreeze]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

TXZ213-214-237-238-080000-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL... HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...PEARLAND... LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY... TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON
1151 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

WITHIN THIS WEEKENDS MOIST TROPICAL IN NATURE AIR MASS...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR THE FORMATION OF WEAK WATER SPOUTS AND OR SHORT LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS. WATER SPOUTS CAN COME ONSHORE AS A WEAK TORNADO. ANY FUNNEL CLOUD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EXTEND TO THE SURFACE AS A WEAK TORNADO. PLEASE REPORT ANY WATER SPOUT OR FUNNEL CLOUD TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT WHO WILL THEN RELY THIS INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

[srainhoutx]

HGX reports: five waterspouts off the western Bolivar Peninsula Coast.

[TexasBreeze]

That small system sure grew big overnight. Lots of storminess out there!

[srainhoutx]

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA THROUGH MONDAY.

[djmike]

Its a watch and see approach now. Inland (Mexico Vs. Texas) and Lots of rain Vs. very little rain. Less than 24-36 hours to go and it sounds like no one really has a clue on what and where 94L will go and/or produce. We could be very or we could end up being very . We'll just have to wait and see...

[Rip76]

Yard work (check)
Gutters cleaned (check)
Sprinklers (check)

I feel like Charlie Brown

[Kludge]

I noticed something on water vapor loops. There is a circulation (mid level?) with a pocket of dry air that drifted over the Houston/Galveston bay area. Now, it is stationary near the entrance to Galveston bay. Maybe it will pull-up and it's going to drift back west?

Anyway, I think it's important because right along the coast, there is an elongated ribbon of dry air that was wrapped into that circulation, and it's slowly getting squeezed out. You can see the ribbon was draped from Corpus over Galveston and to Lake Charles this morning. It's important to note because that's where the soundings were taken, and that may be one reason why the models don't see the moisture moving in today. On water vapor, it looks like that ribbon of dry air is filling-in over time and disappearing. Something to watch for, I think.

You may be onto something. None of the 12Z models initialized very well; there's a lot more convection in the gulf than any of them show. The main blob has consolidated quite a bit over the last 2 hours. If that shear would relax, it could be "go" time (for more than expected precip...not necessarily a closed low).

[Rip76]

Not too, too much longer.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html

[PaulEInHouston]

SatDerived.jpg

This is interesting...satellite derived surface winds from 06Z this morning. Hmmmmm... I don't see anything at all
Of interest as well...the floater was taken down earlier, now it's back up.