November: Cool & Dry To End The Month

[tireman4]

Please let it be cool!!!

[tireman4]

November Normals.....



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_nov

[Ptarmigan]

November Climate Statistics from 1895 to 2010 for Upper Texas Coast.

Temperature
Mean 62.2
Standard Deviation 3.2
Coolest 53.4 (1976)
Warmest 70.3 (1927)
Median 61.8

Top 10 Coolest November
1.) 1976 53.4
2.) 1932 55.9
3.) 1972 56.4
4.) 1929 56.6
5.) 1959 57
6.) 1991 57.2
7.) 1898/1979 57.5
8.) 1936/1939/1992 57.7
9.) 1980 57.9
10.) 1907 58

Top 10 Warmest November
1.) 1927 70.3
2.) 1973 68.6
3.) 1965 68.4
4.) 1909/1921 68.3
5.) 1913 67.7
6.) 1902 67.4
7.) 1931 67.2
8.) 1985 67.1
9.) 1994 66.7
10.)2003 66.2


Rainfall
Mean 3.89
Standard Deviation 2.39
Driest 0.32 (1903)
Wettest 12.55 (2004)
Median 3.55

Top 10 Driest November
1.) 1903 .32
2.) 1949 .49
3.) 1988 .70
4.) 2006 .87
5.) 1999 .94
6.) 1967 .96
7.) 1950 .97
8.) 1924 1.02
9.) 1994 1.08
10.) 1970 1.10

Interesting to note that some of the driest Novembers occurred after a wet October, like in October of 1949, 1994, and 2006, which are the top 10 wettest Octobers on record for Upper Texas Coast. They were the months that had floods from a major hurricane to the Great Flood of 1994.

Top 10 Wettest November
1.) 2004 12.55
2.) 1946 11.06
3.) 1902 9.89
4.) 2000 9.57
5.) 1907 8.63
6.) 1982 8.38
7.) 1940 8.22
8.) 1974 7.83
9.) 1934 7.76
10.) 1986 7.71

November of 2000 was one of the wettest on record and this occurred during a La Nina! It occurred following a very hot and dry summer during the 1999-2000 Drought. Also, November of 1974 was a La Nina. So, there is hope that it could be a wet November.

Source
http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp

[cristina99]

call me a resident of dream land - or just hopeful - but I couldn't help myself from googling the chances of a cold winter / possible snow / ice for Texas come 2012. Some observers tend to think we could have a very cold winter with ice and snow. I was hoping it would be rainy and cold with this most recent front.

[srainhoutx]

I'll have a bit more on this later, but late November/early December may offer a surprise or two.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like another strong front around Wednesday or Thursday next week for Texas. We are starting to see a fall like pattern develop of the fronts dropping S every week and troughing in the W digging a bit deeper. Cold air is increasing across Western Siberia as the snow cover builds and Alaska is cooling down now as well, We should begin to see the cold air start to build across Western Canada as the storm tracks begin to head a bit further S adding to the snow cover up in the source regions. A sure sign that winter is coming and even stronger fronts heading S and E.

[snowman65]

call me a resident of dream land - or just hopeful - but I couldn't help myself from googling the chances of a cold winter / possible snow / ice for Texas come 2012. Some observers tend to think we could have a very cold winter with ice and snow. I was hoping it would be rainy and cold with this most recent front.

I would like to know who these observers are. That differs from every winter outlook that I have seen so far.....only warm and dry....I hope mine are WRONG

[srainhoutx]

Another chance of rain and northern snow lies ahead next week as yet another in a series of strong fronts and a deep Western trough become established bringing down some cold Canadian air into Texas from Tuesday into Thursday...time to start looking at the patterns again and mjo forcing in late fall and winter during a La Nina pattern...

Dodge City afternoon long range disco:

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE 3-7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD IS
ANTICIPATING EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE JET THAT COMES OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND BREAKS ANTICYCLONICALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE JET STREAK THAT SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBLE ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK WAS OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC NEAR
JAPAN THIS MORNING AND LIKELY IS NOT BEING SAMPLED WELL BY THE
MODELS, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE
OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF IS QUICK TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE 4 CORNERS WEDNESDAY AND IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS OR CANADIAN
IN PROPAGATING THE CLOSED CIRCULATION TOWARD THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER, A NUMBER OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN, ALTHOUGH A FEW MEMBERS
ARE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS.

IN THE TROPICS, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
INDIAN OCEAN AS THE REMNANTS OF A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION
PROPAGATE FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60E. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE MADDEN JULIAN SIGNAL AND
WALLOWING CONVECTION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN THROUGH MID NOVEMBER. THE
GFS IS HINTING AT THE MADDEN JULIAN SIGNAL ROTATING BACK TOWARD
PHASE 8 ON THE WHEELER-HENDON PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM BY 10-11 NOVEMBER.
ATMOSPHERIC RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM IS WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A LA NINA REGIME. MOUNTAIN TORQUE STILL IS
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BUT LIKELY WILL TREND TOWARD POSITIVE TERRITORY.
THE TENDENCY OF GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM IS
POSITIVE, AND THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO FALL WELL INTO PHASE 3-4 OF
THE BERRY-WEICKMANN PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM. PHASE 3 AND 4 FAVORS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY, ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS LIKE THE
STRENGTH OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST WITH MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE SUPPORTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
FOR THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME, AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS PROBABLY IS NOT A BAD SOLUTION. A FIRST GLANCE AT
THE 12Z ECMWF REVEALS THAT IT HAS OSCILLATED BACK TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

[Ptarmigan]

Another chance of rain and northern snow lies ahead next week as yet another in a series of strong fronts and a deep Western trough become established bringing down some cold Canadian air into Texas from Tuesday into Thursday...time to start looking at the patterns again and mjo forcing in late fall and winter during a La Nina pattern...

Dodge City afternoon long range disco:

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE 3-7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD IS
ANTICIPATING EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE JET THAT COMES OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND BREAKS ANTICYCLONICALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE JET STREAK THAT SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBLE ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK WAS OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC NEAR
JAPAN THIS MORNING AND LIKELY IS NOT BEING SAMPLED WELL BY THE
MODELS, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE
OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF IS QUICK TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE 4 CORNERS WEDNESDAY AND IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS OR CANADIAN
IN PROPAGATING THE CLOSED CIRCULATION TOWARD THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER, A NUMBER OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN, ALTHOUGH A FEW MEMBERS
ARE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS.

IN THE TROPICS, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
INDIAN OCEAN AS THE REMNANTS OF A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION
PROPAGATE FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60E. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING THE MADDEN JULIAN SIGNAL AND
WALLOWING CONVECTION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN THROUGH MID NOVEMBER. THE
GFS IS HINTING AT THE MADDEN JULIAN SIGNAL ROTATING BACK TOWARD
PHASE 8 ON THE WHEELER-HENDON PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM BY 10-11 NOVEMBER.
ATMOSPHERIC RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM IS WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A LA NINA REGIME. MOUNTAIN TORQUE STILL IS
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BUT LIKELY WILL TREND TOWARD POSITIVE TERRITORY.
THE TENDENCY OF GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM IS
POSITIVE, AND THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO FALL WELL INTO PHASE 3-4 OF
THE BERRY-WEICKMANN PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM. PHASE 3 AND 4 FAVORS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY, ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS LIKE THE
STRENGTH OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST WITH MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE SUPPORTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
FOR THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME, AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS PROBABLY IS NOT A BAD SOLUTION. A FIRST GLANCE AT
THE 12Z ECMWF REVEALS THAT IT HAS OSCILLATED BACK TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

What happens in the Indian Ocean can impact us. November 2000 was wet despite a La Nina and occurred during back to back La Nina during a drought. December 2000 is one of the coolest on record besides 1983 and 1989.

[ticka1]

Do we usually get our first freeze in November or December?

Loving the cooler temps!

[srainhoutx]

A quick look at the week ahead still suggests another Cold front in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with a chance of pre frontal showers/storms, this go around. It does appear we are entering a more progressive pattern with fronts dropping down with more frequency and each one a bit stronger as the month moves along. The next front looks to drop some rain/snow in the Plains as well, so that will be something to watch. The Pacific is becoming rather active with big winter cyclones moving across the N Pacific and cold air building across Northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory. I would not be surprised to see our first frost in the next couple of weeks here in SE TX. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

A progressive and unsettled pattern will be the theme as we enter November. Guidance is suggesting a troughing in the W and building ridge in the E. The Central part of the US will be the battleground for storm ejecting from the base of the trough heading N and E. The next front should arrive late Wednesday/early Thursday with a meager rain chances. Another storm system will eject out of the Rockies next weekend which would tend to lack enough moisture return from the Gulf to bring any rain chances to the area with another quick moving front on Sunday of next week. It does appear that this pattern may linger for a bit, offering clouds and a front every 4-5 days as storm systems dive SE along the West Coast into the base of the trough from the Gulf of Alaska. This tends to bode well for bringing down progressively cooler air that is situated in Western Canada. Snow pack continues to increase in Western Siberia and Alaska as well as Western Canada. All in all, it does look like a fast progressive flow and the Plains may see their first snow of the season later this week.

[tireman4]

Stepping down perhaps? LOL

[srainhoutx]

A quick look at the week ahead still suggests another Cold front in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with a chance of pre frontal showers/storms, this go around. It does appear we are entering a more progressive pattern with fronts dropping down with more frequency and each one a bit stronger as the month moves along. The next front looks to drop some rain/snow in the Plains as well, so that will be something to watch. The Pacific is becoming rather active with big winter cyclones moving across the N Pacific and cold air building across Northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory. I would not be surprised to see our first frost in the next couple of weeks here in SE TX. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro lends a little validity to what the la la land 384 GFS was showing. While the finer details will change, one can see a cold pool developing across the Arctic Region and hints of another powerful storm dropping SE from the Gulf of Alaska. Also notice the Western Trough is still established. In the medium range, the Euro suggests a near blizzard for the Northern Plains and other disturbances riding SE into the base of the trough. Something to watch after day after day, and month after month of 100F+ days and no rain...

[helloitsb]

I like the way the GFS looks, bring on the cold!

also off topic but for some reason this forum doesn't update threads after like an hour on my computer. Is this just me or a forum setting?

[srainhoutx]

HPC Afternoon Update:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
226 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

VALID 12Z WED NOV 02 2011 - 12Z SUN NOV 06 2011

...WINTER STORM POTENTIAL OUT FROM THE ROCKIES TO NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WARM SECTOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY...

A PROGRESSIVE BUT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH TWO MAIN SYSTEMS IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER 48. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS BOLSTERING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN.

FINAL HPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A 70%
00 UTC ECMWF AND 30% 00 UTC GFS BLEND DAY 3 WED FOLLOWING SHORT
RANGE HPC PREFERENCES AND FAVORABLE TRENDS FROM THE 12 UTC
CANADIAN. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS TRANSITION TO A 50-50 BLEND OF THE
00 UTC GFS/ECMWF THEREAFTER AND THIS MAINTAINS CLOSE HPC
CONTINUITY AFTER CONSIDERATION OF LATEST 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST SPREAD AND CONFIDENCE THOUGH REMAINS BELOW NORMAL WITH A
LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM EJECTING
OUT FROM THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US WED-FRI. WITH THIS
LEAD SYSTEM THE HPC BLEND COMBINES QUITE DIFFERENT SYSTEM
AMPLITUDE SOLUTIONS AS THE 00/12 UTC ECMWF RUNS REMAIN MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED ALOFT AND OFFERS MUCH MORE SURFACE SYSTEM REFLECTION
THAN THE 00/06/12 UTC GFS. GIVEN THE SIMILAR FLOW EVOLUTION
UPSTREAM...BUT QUITE VARIED RUN-RUN DEPICTION OF THE SPECIFIC
EMBEDDED LEAD SYSTEM DEPTH...PREFER TO STILL OPT FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE COMPROMISE AS ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW MUCH MORE AMPLITUDE
THAN GFS ENSEMBLES.

WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM UPSTREAM...ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFER A SOMEWHAT
LESS ROBUST LOW GIVEN SOME WEAK MEMBERS/TIMING ISSUES BUT PREFER A
SOLUTION ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OVERALL
GIVEN DYNAMIC POTENTIAL. MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW/HEIGHT FALL
FORECAST SPREAD IS FAIRLY LOW...EVEN NOW WITH NEWER 12 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE. AMPLE LOW SUPPORT FROM MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
RELATIVELY TIGHT CLUSTERING FROM A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT A DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FRIDAY EVENING THAT THEN LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES
NEXT WEEKEND. IN THIS SCENARIO WITH AT LEAST AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE...COMMA HEAD SNOWS COULD OCCUR ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHILE A STRONG WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORM
OUTBREAK COULD THREATEN THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL
STATES.

ROTH/SCHICHTEL

[srainhoutx]

also off topic but for some reason this forum doesn't update threads after like an hour on my computer. Is this just me or a forum setting?

Let me look into that. That said, we are exploring a major upgrade of our php platform and the fine folks at KHOU are looking into what that upgrade will involve. We have some minor issues that are addressed on a daily basis, but since moving to our dedicated server, the board has been functioning properly.

[Katdaddy]

The upcoming weather pattern may lead to a severe weather and tornado event across the Plains next weekend:

Excerpt from today's SPC 4-8 Day Outlook:

SHEAR PROFILES AS WELL AS FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING N TX...OK...KS...AR...MO.
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH SUCH
STRONG WIND FIELDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS EVENT IS 7 DAYS
OUT...AFOREMENTIONED PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WITH TROUGH TIMING AND
MOISTURE RETURN WILL FORESTALL ANY SEVERE AREAS UNTIL LATER
OUTLOOKS.

[srainhoutx]

The cold front is still on schedule Wednesday night/early Thursday morning with meager, fast moving shower chances as the front sweeps by. Fire concerns again for Thursday with gusty NW winds and clear skies overhead. Thursday night/Friday morning will be chilly, then a warm up begins and moisture increases over the weekend with a slight chance of showers.