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invest_al952011.invest
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201110151511
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AL, 95, 2011101512, , BEST, 0, 174N, 864W, 25, 1006,

95L is looking much more organized this morning. The NHC issued a Special Tropical Outlook and reports of near TS strength winds NE of the center. There may be a chance we'll see a cherry before the day is out and just maybe a TD declared if this trend continues. I wouldn't be surprised to see a named storm before a strong front sweeps S into the Gulf, ending any chance for further strengthening. S Florida and the Keys are looking mighty wet the next several days.

after going red, it's now back down to orange at 40% http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml



2PM TWO

1. DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
INVESTIGATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL CIRCULATION NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WELL REMOVED FROM THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DISTURBED WEATHER HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.


2PM DISCUSSION

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED AROUND A 1004 MB LOW JUST N OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
SYSTEM COVERS A GREAT PORTION OF THE BASIN...RAGING FROM 15 KT
TO NEAR GALE FORCE CRITERIA S OF 28N E OF 91W. THIS SYSTEM IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH THAT IS
SHEARING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
E OF 89W FROM 20N-27N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THIS REGION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY OUT
FLOW BOUNDARIES AND WATER SPOUTS. DUE TO THE COMPLEX SCENARIO
INVOLVING THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE SYSTEM...IT IS IMPORTANT TO
MENTION THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GENERATED MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CENTERS
SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
AND NOW THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 4-9
KT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.