Texas Winter Weather Thread

[Ptarmigan]

I think a good analog for upcoming winter are 1980-1981, 1999-2000, and 2000-2001. The winters occurred after a strong heat wave (all of them) or are La Nina winters that followed a previous La Nina winter (1999-2000 and 2000-2001). Also the La Ninas were weaker in 1999-2000 and 2000-2001.


Winter in Texas could see normal precipitation with the exception of Upper Texas Coast, which could see a drier winter.


Looks to see another drought, but there should be some improvement.


Winter in Texas could see normal temperature including Upper Texas Coast. December 2000 was one of the coldest Decembers on record in Houston. It is the third coldest after 1989 and 1983.

[redneckweather]

With winter not too far around the corner, I figured I would start a thread discussiong what we could expect across the Lone Star State.

This guy just updated his winter weather outlook and thinks we will have quite the opposite of having an above average winter temperature wise.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZDfHDHsmm4


It looks like he also expects a sub tropical jet to set up shop with heavy snows across the deep south. Obviously I would love to have a cold/wet winter but I'm not sure this dudes thinking is on the right track.

Thoughts?

[unome]

his YouTube user profile says he's 17 - how long has he been doing long-term seasonal forecasts?

[redneckweather]

Didn't see that he was 17 but he definitely sounds young. I will give him an A for effort though.

[unome]

Didn't see that he was 17 but he definitely sounds young. I will give him an A for effort though.

I would as well, there's a lot of kids that are not making nearly the effort this young man is, so kudos to him !

here's his 2010-11 winter forecast for comparison http://youtu.be/Wogq9sPzwtE

[redneckweather]

That actually wasn't too bad of a forecast he put out for the 2010-2011 winter season, unless I'm overlooking something.

[Ptarmigan]

I would like to have this topic moved to Texas Winter Weather Thread. Thanks.

[Andrew]

When merging the two topics (Ptarmigan's topic and Redneck's topic) Ptarmigan's post became the first post. Sorry for any confusion this may cause anyone and if you have any questions/ concerns let me know.

[srainhoutx]

U.S. dealt another La Niña winter but ‘wild card’ could trump it
Devastating drought in Southern Plains likely to continue
October 20, 2011

The Southern Plains should prepare for continued drier and warmer than average weather, while the Pacific Northwest is likely to be colder and wetter than average from December through February, according to the annual Winter Outlook released today by NOAA.

For the second winter in a row, La Niña will influence weather patterns across the country, but as usual, it’s not the only climate factor at play. The ‘wild card’ is the lesser-known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation that could produce dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html

[Ptarmigan]

It's been really cold up in Alaska with temperatures -40 to -50. The temperature break 1989 records. I am hearing that this is like 1989. One difference is that the winter of 1989-1990 was Neutral, while we are in La Nina.

Alaska's Brutal Cold Reaches Historical Status
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... es-his.asp