October- Cool Mornings & Mild Days To End The Month

[sleetstorm]

What is in store for Texas for this year's autumn, chiefly or totally arid cold fronts?

[unome]

Ed already started an October thread

[unome]

I guess I'll post this here, as it mostly deals with the drought going forward - be prepared to be depressed...

http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2011 ... be-broken/

a snippet:

"September 27, 2010. For most of the state of Texas, that’s the date that the 2011 Texas drought began. As we approach the one-year mark, there’s increasing concern about the possibility of a second year of drought, or even that we might be in a drought that will last five years, ten years, or longer. Some very new research sheds some light on that possibility."

[sleetstorm]

Do you think that he would mind moving or pasting all of those maps onto this one since no one else has yet to post on his?

[srainhoutx]

Do you think that he would mind moving or pasting all of those maps onto this one since no one else has yet to post on his?

Since Ed started the October thread first, your Topic has been merged with Ed's October Topic.

[biggerbyte]

Someone might be able to suggest this drought would last another year, but even that is pushing the extreme in long range forecasting. Two years, five and ten year predictions? Rediculous..

[wxman57]

Another GFS run, another hurricane in the western Caribbean at 384 hours. Sure, I buy it!

[randybpt]

Hey Ed exactly what's that showing..

[wxman57]

Hey Ed exactly what's that showing..

Possible heavy rain late next week.

[srainhoutx]

Another GFS run, another hurricane in the western Caribbean at 384 hours. Sure, I buy it!

You never know...edit to add: If the models are correct, that would suggest a fairly significant pattern change and just perhaps more activity/disturbances riding along the Pacific sub tropical jet along with a fairly deep trough across the Western CONUS that may well increase our chances of some rainfall across drought parched Texas. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

A pattern change continues to be advertised by guidance as we enter the first week of October. A deep West Coast trough and an active Pacific sub tropical jet that includes an possible EPAC Hurricane heading NE look to offer chances for increased moisture over Texas. Also, right on schedule, a vigorous cold core upper low appears to be setting the stage the first significant snowfall of the season for the Rockies. A sure sign the fall has finally arrived...

[snowman65]

Will the front today clear the coast in time for high school football tonight in the golden triangle to at least clear out the humidity some and make for a pleasant evening???

[jasons2k]

Posted on Eric Berger's blog on Chron.com - from Fred Schmude @ Impactweather. Not as optimistic for next week as I had hoped:

We’re of course at that time of the year when the northern storm track starts to become considerably more active over the U.S. driving fast moving disturbances and cold fronts from the Pacific to Atlantic Coast. We’re highly confident that one such storm system will strengthen over the Rockies during the first week of October bringing much colder and unsettled weather conditions with a risk of lowland rain and even high mountain snow.

The big question for southeast Texas is, will this developing storm system over the Rockies be strong enough to bring some much needed widespread and heavy rain by the end of the first week of October? Before I answer that question please note this is the type of weather pattern we need to start seeing in order to get some much needed rain into the area as the flow pattern buckles over the western U.S. allowing Gulf moisture to surge over the region.

Unfortunately with this storm system, it’s not forecast to deepen into the lower latitudes, so for right now we’re probably at best only going to see a quick burst of showers and maybe, if we’re fortunate, a few thunderstorms centered on the 7th or 8th as a weak cold front moves by the area. Ahead of the front we may even see a few showers and thunderstorms on the 5th and 6th as Gulf moisture surges northward out ahead of the cold front and interacts with weak disturbances.

We can always hope that one of these disturbances turns out to be stronger, but from our vantage point now we don’t see anything out of the ordinary that would bring widespread heavy rain to the Houston area. The cold front on the 7th or 8th will likely be followed by 2 or 3 days of cooler and drier air before our next chance of rain materializes by the middle of the month.

The only good news to report is the normal southward shift of the northern storm track is well on its way as evident by next week’s weather pattern. We’ll just have to wait until the latter half of October and November for the northern storm track to have more of an effect on the Texas weather pattern, increasing the likelihood for more rainfall.

[srainhoutx]

55F this morning for the low up here in NW Harris County. Enjoy the great fall weather everyone!

[redneckweather]

What a depressing discussion this morning. So much for a pattern change.


UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. STRUGGLING TO MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS WITH
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SO PLAN TO CARRY 20 OR LESS
FOR POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE WEST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING RAINFALL TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THU-TUE AND
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL OVER SETX. ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPING A TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEAR CUBA AND LIFTING IT NORTH TOWARD FL REGION...IT HAS
BEEN WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WOULD NOT BRING ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO TX.

[unome]

let's see if this changes Monday when it's not an automated forecast

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... xus06.html



PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2011

THERE IS NO FORECASTER MESSAGE WRITTEN ON WEEKENDS

NOTES:

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASSIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

[srainhoutx]

Throughout the weekend the signals have increased suggesting a change in the pattern. While we are enjoying cooler temps and the dry pattern continues, the ensembles are suggesting a rather significant change beginning next week. As mentioned earlier, the non existent MJO that we experienced for most of the summer is making a return, and in a big way. We have experienced rather weak pulses of the MJO, but that is about to change. There is a robust Kelvin wave and an MJO induced Western trough lurking in the medium/longer range. This MJO almost looks like an El Nino type pulse because of the strong nature that the ensembles are suggesting. Now what can we expect in a pattern such as this. There should be an uptick in tropical activity, first in the EPAC and then in the Western Atlantic Basin. Also, it appears that the Pacific sub tropical jet will become rather active as impulses ride along the Western trough. There is a rather strong possibility that an EPAC Hurricane or two will turn NE recurving into Mexico and points to the N and E. There are also hints of tropical development in the Western Caribbean in the not too distant future. While we in Texas are probably done with any tropical threat, eyes may need to look just to our E along Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama/Florida areas. Our weather may begin to be affected with any activity in the EPAC as well. Typically the first couple of weeks of October are rather tranquil for Texas. With the above mentioned scenario, the second half of October may provide for a switch from the weather doldrums we have experienced for months on end. We shall see...

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Interesting pattern ahead for the southern US and TX

Surface high over the region will slide eastward with dry easterly winds continuing for another day or so before winds become more SE and Gulf moisture begins to return. Will see one more night of cool weather before lows return into the muggy 60’s and 70’s. ESE to SE flow ahead of the next western US long wave trough will help return moisture to the region by Thursday. Models show a slight chance of streamer type showers moving inland off the Gulf during the day on Thursday and mainly focused over the coastal bend where best moisture and likely a coastal boundary between modified Gulf air and true tropical Gulf air will set up. Large slow moving upper trough will eject more northeast into the upper plains instead of eastward into the central/southern plains due to ridging over the SE US.

Result of this pattern will be true tropical moisture invading the region by Friday with PWS progged to increase into the 1.5-1.8 inch range. Feel that the best dynamics from embedded short waves in the SSW to SW flow on the eastern side of the trough will be focused along and W of I-35 and this is where the best rain chances will reside. The dividing ground between a wet west TX and a fairly dry east TX looks to be across SE TX with the best rain chances on Friday and Saturday west of I-45 and likely near Matagorda Bay while areas east of I-45 may see no rainfall at all. Models are not in overall good agreement on the track and speed of the trough over the western US, but such long and deep systems tend to move slower than forecast, so rain chances may end up lower on Friday and higher on Sunday just due to a slower progression of the system into the plains. Will fine tune over the next few days and hopefully be able to tick rain chances up a touch!

Gulf:
The old frontal boundary which moved through TX last Friday has found its way down into the western Caribbean where it has stalled out this morning. Satellite shows a disorganized area of showers near this boundary from south of Cuba to the central American coast. Several models have been hinting at sub-tropical or tropical cyclone formation within this region by this weekend and lift the system northward into the region of the eastern Gulf of Mexico/S FL/Cuba over the weekend. ECMWF is by far the more aggressive model with the GFS much weaker. Upper pattern over the SE/E US is interesting for early October with what appears to be enough ridging to block much northward motion of the system near FL. Much uncertainty with where/how this system forms and tracks and how purely tropical it becomes. For now TX should lie well to the west, but surface flow may be increased out of the ENE/NE by early next week pumping dry air SW toward eastern TX and increasing gusty winds…fire weather concerns may be increased.

Fire Weather:
Dry fuels and dry air mass continues to support elevated fire weather conditions even with weak afternoon winds. At least 20 grass fires have developed across Harris County over the past 3 days in conditions that are marginal for fire growth…this continues to give the indication of how serious of a fire weather situation remains across the area awaiting favorable weather conditions. The good news is that the very dry air mass in place should be replaced with increasing Gulf moisture by Thursday, but stronger winds. Will retain the elevated fire threat into Thursday as we swap out the dry air but then bring in gusty winds. Feel starts will be harder with the more moist surface layer, and potential for some rainfall.

Next time period of concern may come late in the weekend/early next week as deepening eastern Gulf system could bring gusty NE winds and dry air into the area.

[redneckweather]

So basically what Jeff is saying is that southeast, Texas is going to be dry and will miss any good rains. He also mentions the tropics which will not even remotely effect us. Nice.

[texoz]

It's unbelievably frustrating. Ridge moves east, but not far enough to allow frontal or cut off low generation of storms to move into area.

However, it's not far enough east or strong enough (or the timing is wrong?) to push a tropical system westward through the Gulf into Texas? UGH.