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AL, 98, 2011091812, , BEST, 0, 110N, 352W, 25, 1009, LO,

8:00AM TWO:

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Does this one have a decent chance of making it into the GOM?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

sambucol wrote:Does this one have a decent chance of making it into the GOM?

Chances of it reaching the Gulf are about zero. Deep trof along the East U.S. Coast by late this weekend should steer it northward well east of the U.S., very much like Maria and Katia.

15th named storm of the season forms. Track nearly identical to Maria. No threat to the Gulf or the U.S.

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS FINALLY COALESCED ABOUT A
SINGLE CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN ASCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 00Z
SHOWED AN AREA OF 35 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
OPHELIA IS STILL A LITTLE RAGGED...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS LOCATED
WELL NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE STILL CONSOLIDATING CENTER. WHILE
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE
SOMEWHAT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/8...DUE TO THE
RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND A WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 12.2N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.4N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.7N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 12.9N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 13.2N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 15.0N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 19.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#OPHELIA

000
WTNT41 KNHC 301433
TCDAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011

OPHELIA HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A CIRCULAR
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE EYE WAS ALREADY CLEARLY OBSERVED ON
EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 5.0 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE THIS MORNING. SINCE THEN...THE EYE HAS BECOME EVEN
MORE DISTINCT...AND THE ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE
BEEN AVERAGING NEAR 5.5 WITH RAW NUMBERS RECENTLY REACHING 6.0. ON
THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100
KNOTS...MAKING OPHELIA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON A SAFFIR
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE
SEASON.

THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT OPHELIA HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY...AND ONLY SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENCOUNTER COLD WATERS
RESULTING IN WEAKENING. OPHELIA SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO MOVE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN RECURVE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AS THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NHC FORECAST SINCE IT IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 23.5N 62.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 25.2N 63.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 28.5N 63.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 32.1N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 37.0N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 46.0N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1200Z 52.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT31 KNHC 012340
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES
EAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 62.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
BY BERMUDA RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY...WITH RAPID
WEAKENING LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2340.shtml

Ophelia is now a Category 4 hurricane.