BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
...NATE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. AN ERRATIC
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Nate: SW Gulf of Mexico
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srainhoutx
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srainhoutx
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TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED
TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN WAS SEEN LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NATE HAS
THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 45 KT...BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION
OF 40 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND RECENT STRONGER WIND
REPORTS FROM ELEVATED PEMEX OIL RIGS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE NATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
NATE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVERNIGHT OR THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS
A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES OVER
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. IN A
DAY OR SO...NATE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. AFTER 36-48 HOURS...THE
MODEL SPREAD BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE...AS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST GFS AND
GFDL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH...MOVE NATE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH THAT DOES NOT CAPTURE NATE AND ALLOWS
IT TURN TURN WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO VIABLE
SCENARIOS BUT HAS NOT BEEN SHIFTED AS FAR AS THE TVCA CONSENSUS.
THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO PERFORM A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY HELP REDUCE
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
NATE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND ALONG WITH DRIER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR...IS FORECAST TO
SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 20.0N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 20.4N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 21.0N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 21.8N 92.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 22.5N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 23.1N 93.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.6N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 24.0N 95.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED
TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN WAS SEEN LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NATE HAS
THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 45 KT...BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION
OF 40 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND RECENT STRONGER WIND
REPORTS FROM ELEVATED PEMEX OIL RIGS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE NATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
NATE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVERNIGHT OR THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS
A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES OVER
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. IN A
DAY OR SO...NATE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. AFTER 36-48 HOURS...THE
MODEL SPREAD BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE...AS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST GFS AND
GFDL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH...MOVE NATE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH THAT DOES NOT CAPTURE NATE AND ALLOWS
IT TURN TURN WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO VIABLE
SCENARIOS BUT HAS NOT BEEN SHIFTED AS FAR AS THE TVCA CONSENSUS.
THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO PERFORM A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY HELP REDUCE
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
NATE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND ALONG WITH DRIER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR...IS FORECAST TO
SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 20.0N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 20.4N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 21.0N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 21.8N 92.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 22.5N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 23.1N 93.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.6N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 24.0N 95.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Bluefalcon
- Posts: 129
- Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:14 pm
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Looks like we've entered stage 2 of Storm Watch Syndrome: Guidance Model Ping-Pong. 
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1142
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- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Hmmm! Will Nate stall and spin long enough to allow for even a slight pattern change to bring him far enough west, say western LA, Rita redux? We will not keep this NW flow forever. Interesting model runs today that simply give us something to think about. Certainly nothing to hang our hat on, as usual. I'm certainly not going to rely on any model, long range, to decide if we can get such a change and get some rain in here. We'll see how it all looks on Sunday.
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
100 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
...NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT APPROACHING...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. AN ERRATIC
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE TOMORROW OR SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
100 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
...NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT APPROACHING...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. AN ERRATIC
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE TOMORROW OR SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 18:41Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2011
Storm Name: Nate (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 18:05:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°43'N 92°14'W (19.7167N 92.2333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 112 miles (180 km) to the W (265°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 49° at 41kts (From the NE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 458m (1,503ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 519m (1,703ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 81kts (~ 93.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 18:15:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 18:41Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2011
Storm Name: Nate (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 18:05:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°43'N 92°14'W (19.7167N 92.2333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 112 miles (180 km) to the W (265°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 49° at 41kts (From the NE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 458m (1,503ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 519m (1,703ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 81kts (~ 93.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 18:15:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS NATE STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. VERY LITTLE
MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT. A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70
MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND NATE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS NATE STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. VERY LITTLE
MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT. A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70
MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND NATE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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srainhoutx
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TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NATE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
HAS REPORTED PEAK 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND BELIEVABLE
SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 60 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PLACE NATE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT NATE HAS MOVED SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 160/2 KT. THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. NATE WILL REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN IT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. AFTER
36-48 HOURS...THERE REMAINS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...
HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD. THE GFS IS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK MODELS MOVE NATE MORE WESTWARD TOWARD
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT
NOT NEARLY AS FAR WEST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...OUT OF RESPECT
FOR THE GFS AND THE EARLIER ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 19.7N 92.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.7N 92.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 20.2N 92.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 20.9N 92.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 21.6N 93.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 22.5N 94.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 23.0N 94.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 23.5N 95.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NATE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
HAS REPORTED PEAK 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND BELIEVABLE
SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 60 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PLACE NATE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT NATE HAS MOVED SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 160/2 KT. THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. NATE WILL REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN IT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. AFTER
36-48 HOURS...THERE REMAINS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...
HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD. THE GFS IS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK MODELS MOVE NATE MORE WESTWARD TOWARD
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT
NOT NEARLY AS FAR WEST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...OUT OF RESPECT
FOR THE GFS AND THE EARLIER ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 19.7N 92.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.7N 92.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 20.2N 92.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 20.9N 92.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 21.6N 93.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 22.5N 94.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 23.0N 94.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 23.5N 95.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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Andrew
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Looks like the NHC is holding out for the GFS. If the GFS shifts west tonight we should see a good shift to the south:
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT
NOT NEARLY AS FAR WEST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...OUT OF RESPECT
FOR THE GFS AND THE EARLIER ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
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Carl Parker on the Weather Channel this afternoon around 2:50pm said that one of the most reliable Hurricane Models had this storm coming into Houston. (He didn't say which model it was) but he later continued with saying that would be a good thing for rain wise, but bad news for wind. I wonder which model he was talking about, because I haven't seen a model that has it coming to Houston.
You can view the video on the Weather Channel's website. I'll post the link below, but I'm sure here soon they'll take down the 2:50pm video as the day goes on and more information comes in.
http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/n ... opics-6584
You can view the video on the Weather Channel's website. I'll post the link below, but I'm sure here soon they'll take down the 2:50pm video as the day goes on and more information comes in.
http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/n ... opics-6584
Blake
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Andrew
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Belmer wrote:Carl Parker on the Weather Channel this afternoon around 2:50pm said that one of the most reliable Hurricane Models had this storm coming into Houston. (He didn't say which model it was) but he later continued with saying that would be a good thing for rain wise, but bad news for wind. I wonder which model he was talking about, because I haven't seen a model that has it coming to Houston.
You can view the video on the Weather Channel's website. I'll post the link below, but I'm sure here soon they'll take down the 2:50pm video as the day goes on and more information comes in.
http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/n ... opics-6584
Yea he was talking about the GFS but as of now it is the only model that is taking it to the northern Gulf area. Lets see if it continues during the 00z suite runs and if other models follow.
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Andrew
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:Belmer wrote:Carl Parker on the Weather Channel this afternoon around 2:50pm said that one of the most reliable Hurricane Models had this storm coming into Houston. (He didn't say which model it was) but he later continued with saying that would be a good thing for rain wise, but bad news for wind. I wonder which model he was talking about, because I haven't seen a model that has it coming to Houston.
You can view the video on the Weather Channel's website. I'll post the link below, but I'm sure here soon they'll take down the 2:50pm video as the day goes on and more information comes in.
http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/n ... opics-6584
12Z GFS comes close, but not into Houston, far enough way rain is negligible. Parker is a 60 hour certificate holder from Miss State (as is Crystal Egger, but I give her a pass), he has no science background, the program is meant for broadcast comm type BA degree holders to do TV weather. I'm sure Parker is a hobbyist, probably knows more than the general public, but he is not a scientist or a degreed met.
Well you can't really trust the GFS's QPF when you have a storm that close especially with that run. We probably would have received rain with that run but at this point that run looks unreasonable.
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Season Cancel for Texas. Seriously.... 
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weatherrabbit
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jasons wrote:Season Cancel for Texas. Seriously....
agreed
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Andrew
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weatherrabbit wrote:jasons wrote:Season Cancel for Texas. Seriously....
agreed
While that very well could come to fruition I remember a certain person that did that a couple years back and we received Ike.
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It lives in infamy and internet forum lore foreverAndrew wrote:weatherrabbit wrote:jasons wrote:Season Cancel for Texas. Seriously....
agreed
While that very well could come to fruition I remember a certain person that did that a couple years back and we received Ike.
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biggerbyte
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Good answer... And the way things go around here... With so many people saying this event is done for, where Texas is concerned, it is almost destined to land right on top of Downtown Houston.
