Hurricane Katia: N Of The Leeward Islands

[rnmm]

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011082800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922011
AL, 92, 2011082800, , BEST, 0, 103N, 195W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Ptarmigan]

Future Jose. Longer it takes to develop, the more west 92L could go. If I recall, Ike formed further north of 92L and it went westward despite being a hurricane. Ike was tagged as Invest 97L.

[rnmm]

1. A TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

06Z...

[PaulEInHouston]

50/50 on going fishing like Jose

[srainhoutx]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 T0 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[sleetstorm]

Could 92L feasibly be Katia? (pronounced Kah-tyah)

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 26.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[ticka1]

Is now TD12 - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.sh ... l#contents

[ticka1]

the latest....

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 29 2011

...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OVER THE
FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 30.0W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY
TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ticka1]

Its now TS Katia.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

...NEW TROPICAL STORM MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 31.7W
ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.7 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[sleetstorm]

Okay everyone, as of 5p.m. today, Tropical Storm Katia has maximum sustained winds of 60 m.p.h. with gusts of 70 m.p.h. moving WNW at 19 m.p.h. Just so you know.

[Ptarmigan]

Intensity model for Katia. Some have Katia as a Category 5 hurricane.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST WED AUG 31 2011

...KATIA BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 44.4W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND KATIA COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2011

...KATIA WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 49.2W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

Katia is a very impressive Hurricane...