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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...LEE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MEANDERS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 92.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST.
LEE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...HOWEVER A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
TONIGHT. A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ONSHORE THE LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SEVERAL ELEVATED OFFSHORE OIL RIGS SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 44 AND 48 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM OFFSHORE OIL RIGS INDICATE
THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

The rainshield is so very close to the Houston metro area but moving way to slow.

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/03/11 2206Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2155Z JS
.
LOCATION...NW FLORIDA/SW ALABAMA/S MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA...
LOCATION...E TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...LOW LEVEL CENTER OF LEE MOVING TO THE NW NOW RIGHT ON SW LA
COAST. HEAVIEST RAINS TO THE NW OF THE CENTER AS WELL AS WITH BANDS
WRAPPING TO THE NW ACROSS S MS/SW AL/FAR NW FL.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VISIBLE ANIMATION THROUGH 2155Z SHOWS
THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER OF LEE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF SW
LA NEAR S VERMILLION PARRISH WITH AN APPARENT SLIGHT WESTWARD WOBBLE IN
THE FEATURE SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF COLDER
CLOUD TOPS HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED WITH A BAND TO THE NW OF THE CENTER
OVER SW LA WHERE SATELLITE ESTIMATED RATES ARE NEAR 1.5"/HALF HOUR. HAVE
ALSO SEEN RECENT 3 HOUR OBSERVED METAR TOTALS ENDING AT 21Z OF 1.25"
TO AROUND 1.5" ACROSS W CENT AND SW LA. VIS/IR IMAGERY AND COMPOSITE
RADAR DATA SHOW THIS AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SPREAD FARTHER TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE TX/LA BORDER INTO E AND SE TX. TO THE EAST, VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE DRY SLOT HAS WRAPPED AROUND FROM SE INTO S CENT LA
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SEEN. SOME CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THE DRY
SLOT DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE MORE INTENSE BANDS HAVE
FOCUSED ON AREAS TO THE EAST OVER S MS/SW AL/FAR NW FL. IN THIS REGION,
3 HOURLY METAR OBSERVED TOTALS ANS SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE SHOWING 1-2"
TOTALS WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3" AND POSSIBLY HIGHER.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2145-0045Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TRENDS POINT TOWARD THE RECENT
FLARE UP OVER SW LA AS WELL AS THE CONTINUATION OF BANDS SPREADING INLAND
OVER S MA/SW AL/FAR NW FL AS THE PRIMARY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AREAS FOR
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. CONCERN EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE BANDS TO FORM
TO THE NW AND N OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF LEE RESULTING IN VERY INTENSE
RAIN RATES AND SIGNIFICANT TOTALS ACROSS SW TO S CENT LA. TO THE EAST,
SEE NO REAL LET UP IN THE PERSISTENT BANDS MOVING INLAND OVER S MS/SW
AL/FAR NW FL AS VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS WELL DEFINED OVERSHOOTING
TOPS OFFSHORE SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST. ADDITIONAL TOTALS
OF AT LEAST 1-3" ARE LIKELY IN THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

I sure hope at least some of these bands make it further west into Harris County. Over here in Tanglewood near the Galleria, power has now gone out twice in the last two hours. All wind, no rain. Dog going nuts each time as the fire alarms reset, and each outage is increasing the likelihood that some or all of our A/C units are going to go out...

more rain passing, wetting roof tops and fences now, I think more will come, at least i hope

Lake Charles Aviation Update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

.AVIATION...THE RADAR INDICATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
STORM LEE CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
DRIFT AROUND PECAN ISLAND...THE COASTAL PORTION OF WESTERN
VERMILION PARISH. A HEAVY RAIN BAND POISED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
WILL MOVE IN TRAIN WESTWARD. LCH WILL HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL LIMITING
IFR CIGS AND LIFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. IFR
CIG/VIS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TNITE IMPROVING
TO MVFR VIS WITH IFR CIGS ON SUNDAY MORNING IN MODERATE RAIN. IFR
CIGS WITH VFR VIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.

BPT WILL SEE TEMPO IFR CIG/VIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE SAME FEEDER BAND. THIS RAIN LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
LATE TNITE TO LIFR VIS WITH IFR CIGS CONTINUING ON INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

LFT AND ARA WILL SEE IFR CIGS LATE TNITE AS A BAND MOVES IN FROM
ATCHAFALAYA BAY...VIS AT ARA IFR AT TIMES IN HEAVY RAIN. MVFR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.

AEX WILL BE THE BEST ALTERNATE IN THE BUNCH WITH IFR VIS IN
MODERATE RAIN UNDER MVFR CIGS DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR CIG/VIS BEFORE SUNRISE
WITH LIGHT RAIN.

Wind has kicked up a good amount, even more so than has been today here in Orange.

lol...18Z GFDL...

Getting spritzed with light rain on the east end of Galveston. It's been overcast with periods of sun most of the day. Breezes in the 30+mph range.

Katdaddy wrote:The rainshield is so very close to the Houston metro area but moving way to slow.

And it appears to be getting closer. Been watching the radar these last few hours and it looks like we may get some rain before it's said and done. That main body behind this band to our east sure looks like it wants to head this way.
Hope it's not just a teaser.

Wouldn't it be funny if the gfdl track took place. Lol

I guess I wasn't crazy after all this morning.

Heck, any model could be right at the moment.

Dr. Rick Knabb was just discussing the NAM. Who knows, maybe there is/will be something to it.

Edit to add- I meant Norcross

There has definitely been a westward jog. Brian Norcross was just discussing that. They don't sound quite as confident as they did earlier. Interesting to note the models start disagreeing again this close to/after landfall. I'm liking the "WTF" model runs better.

srainhoutx wrote:lol...18Z GFDL...

We joke, but models all week have to a certain point brought the system back out off coast then back on shore.

If the graphic displays again it is because I forgot how to remove when doing a quote.

srainhoutx wrote:lol...18Z GFDL...

Man i sure would like to see that verify.

Lake Charles radar sure seems to suggest a westward motion...

perk wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:lol...18Z GFDL...

Man i sure would like to see that verify.

Doesn't quite seem like the plausible idea for Lee but it is funny how it seems like some of these models are slowly starting to change their tune as to what becomes of Lee. Gonna be an interesting night of radar and model watching. Gotta go to work now .... will check in overnight to see what's new. Off to Seabrook for me.

Srain, seems to have been NW to W all day.

srainhoutx wrote:Lake Charles radar sure seems to suggest a westward motion...

Looking at the radar, we should get in on some good rains