Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...LEE STILL MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 92.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST.
LEE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THE LOUISIANA COAST OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY OVER WATER.

REPORTS FROM OFFSHORE OIL RIGS INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Snowman]

Lee is about to be one big forecast bust! what model predicted the death of Lee?

[singlemom]

I'm watching the rain fall apart here in Spring.....it rained some...then started to spit. Now the radar shows it drying up. Tell me that this isn't all there is? For what....sixteen days???

[BoonDog]

I'm watching the rain fall apart here in Spring.....it rained some...then started to spit. Now the radar shows it drying up. Tell me that this isn't all there is? For what....sixteen days???

Once the front comes through tomorrow, I'm afraid that's all there is. On the bright side the temps will be lower but the fire danger will be serious. Not enough rain has fallen to help that situation. For those of us that did see rain.

[BoonDog]

There is a chance of a last minute flare up, but the system is fighting dry air right now. But even that will be close to the center of circulation.

[skidog38]

what about the midnight rally.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

...CENTER OF LEE ON THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 92.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
MOVE SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. WATER
LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE OCCURRING
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[biggerbyte]

Well, I wonder what Lee has in store now. It is a shame how it all unfolded over night. He left locations east of Montgomery and Harris Counties with more than the basic "tinkle" that the rest of us got. The combination of shear and dry air from Texas has driven many nails into Lee, but he's not entirely dead yet. The next nail, however will be the anticipated cold front and trough, which should lift what is left out. If we get anymore rain from Lee, today, Sunday will be the day to watch. This continues to look like a yawn event for Texas, in spite of last nights excitement. What a tease.

[sleetstorm]

Okay, as of 7 a.m. CDT, Tropical Storm Lee was moving NE at 3 m.p.h.

[redneckweather]

Yesterday evening and into last night was our chance to get any moisture from Lee. We will see nothing today as he starts his trek off to the northeast. Get ready for more wildfires to make headlines. I'm usually pumped about our first front of the year but the fire danger and drought has put my spirits in the crapper.

We need rain.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

...LEE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 91.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST. LEE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
MOVE SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...
445 KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH...
72 KM/H AND A GUST TO 49 MPH...79 KM/H. NUMEROUS OFFSHORE OIL RIGS
ALSO CONTINUE TO REPORT SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

A STORM SURGE VALUE OF MORE THAN 4 FEET RECENTLY OCCURRED JUST SOUTH
OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA AT AMERADA PASS.

RECENT REPORTS FROM OIL RIGS AND COASTAL MONITORING STATIONS
INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. WATER
LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE OCCURRING
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[biggerbyte]

No more wishing and hoping, dreamcasting and believing/disbelieving... It is over. Lee is not coming back for fruit loops and party teasers. At least we know we have to move on now. In a way I wish last night would have never happened. It only served to dish up more disappointment.

So, I believe we are officially forkless now.

Done!

[djmike]

Rained all night and still raining today...nothing major though. 2.00" so far here in Beaumont and still counting since yesterday. Some areas in the Golden Triangle close to 3.00"! Winds have really died down, prob cause Lee is moving away now NE. Trees and grass our really singing hallelujah!

Sorry Houston, once again it seems we have hogged all the rain...

[Rip76]

Ok, Lee

Is this thing stalled again?

[Belmer]

For what it's worth, the Austin/Round Rock has a futurecast in which it shows a storm developing by early/mid-this week
http://austin.ynn.com/content/weather/

Once you're there you can go to the left side where it says, Futurecast or you can scroll down and it will show the futurecast. Just click on it and you can see from there. Hopefully that link works. BUT, if not, it shows the storm getting close to Texas. Doesn't show it hitting Texas, just shows it spinning up into a storm moving North. We'll see...
But it's not like this is a LONG range computer model. I mean in the futurecast, it shows Lee moving NE and then this storm forming by just Tuesday, well... tomorrow (since it's technically Monday). So we should know something by Monday night into Tuesday-Wednesday.

[rnmm]

Thank you for explaining Belmer, it just blinks/flashes on my screen and never loads the graph.