Irene Now a TS: Over New York City
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Interesting development with the 18Z GFDL suggesting a UKMET, Canadian and Euro Ensembles type track for Irene...
- Attachments
-
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011
...IRENE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 59.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER TO CABO ENGANO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER TO
CABO ENGANO
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON
MONDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY SUNDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON SUNDAY. IRENE COULD APPROACH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATE MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BY LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011
...IRENE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 59.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER TO CABO ENGANO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER TO
CABO ENGANO
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON
MONDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY SUNDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON SUNDAY. IRENE COULD APPROACH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATE MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BY LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION. THE GUADELOUPE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS BANDING
ALONG WITH A DISTINCT MID-LEVEL VORTEX...WHICH IS ALSO VISIBLE IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 45 KT AND THE
NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY THROUGH IRENE
AROUND 1200 UTC.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 280/19. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER IRENE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION. AFTER THAT TIME...A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW MUCH
OF A WEAKNESS IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE...HOWEVER...WITH A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING LARGE TRACK SPREAD AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE
UKMET...SHOW MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON A SECOND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND DO NOT SHOW THE FIRST TROUGH AFFECTING
IRENE MUCH. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE
LATER PERIODS...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHIFT THE NHC FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THIS IS
A GOOD TIME TO REMIND USERS THAT THE AVERAGE DAY 4 AND 5 NHC TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 250 MILES.
WITH THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE ON MICROWAVE...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
AS THE STORM TRAVERSES VERY WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR
CONDITIONS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED
DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION OCCURS WITH
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. THE CURRENT TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER THE
SPINE OF CUBA BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...SO LITTLE INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING EXPECTED
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AFTER IRENE MOVES AWAY FROM LAND. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS LAND INTERACTION...SUCH
AS THE GFDL OR HWRF...HAVE IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND
THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM MOVES ON
THE FAR LEFT OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND AVOIDS
SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. OVERALL...GIVEN THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.
A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.
OF NOTE...THIS IS THE THIRD EARLIEST TO HAVE NINE NAMED STORMS FORM
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 2005 AND 1936.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 15.3N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.0N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.6N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 17.2N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 18.0N 70.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 19.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 21.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 26/0000Z 24.5N 80.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION. THE GUADELOUPE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS BANDING
ALONG WITH A DISTINCT MID-LEVEL VORTEX...WHICH IS ALSO VISIBLE IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 45 KT AND THE
NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY THROUGH IRENE
AROUND 1200 UTC.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 280/19. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER IRENE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION. AFTER THAT TIME...A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW MUCH
OF A WEAKNESS IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE...HOWEVER...WITH A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING LARGE TRACK SPREAD AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE
UKMET...SHOW MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON A SECOND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND DO NOT SHOW THE FIRST TROUGH AFFECTING
IRENE MUCH. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE
LATER PERIODS...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHIFT THE NHC FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THIS IS
A GOOD TIME TO REMIND USERS THAT THE AVERAGE DAY 4 AND 5 NHC TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 250 MILES.
WITH THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE ON MICROWAVE...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
AS THE STORM TRAVERSES VERY WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR
CONDITIONS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED
DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION OCCURS WITH
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. THE CURRENT TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER THE
SPINE OF CUBA BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...SO LITTLE INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING EXPECTED
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AFTER IRENE MOVES AWAY FROM LAND. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS LAND INTERACTION...SUCH
AS THE GFDL OR HWRF...HAVE IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND
THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM MOVES ON
THE FAR LEFT OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND AVOIDS
SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. OVERALL...GIVEN THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.
A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.
OF NOTE...THIS IS THE THIRD EARLIEST TO HAVE NINE NAMED STORMS FORM
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 2005 AND 1936.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 15.3N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.0N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.6N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 17.2N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 18.0N 70.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 19.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 21.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 26/0000Z 24.5N 80.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
12Z...
- Attachments
-
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
...IRENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 63.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO ON THE NORTH COAST
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST.
BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO
* HAITI
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE
WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AND APPROACH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
...IRENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 63.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO ON THE NORTH COAST
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST.
BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO
* HAITI
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE
WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AND APPROACH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
- Attachments
-
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Still looks to be a SE US event as models continue to cluster over FLA. Hopefully interaction with the islands will keep Irene a minimal hurricane however extremely warm SSTs exist in the Florida Straits.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE STRENGTHENS OVER PUERTO RICO...BECOMING THE FIRST HURRICANE
OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI
FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN FAA DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
REGIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM AST AND 900 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE STRENGTHENS OVER PUERTO RICO...BECOMING THE FIRST HURRICANE
OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI
FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN FAA DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
REGIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM AST AND 900 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
- Attachments
-
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
txflagwaver
- Posts: 411
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 2:37 pm
- Location: Seabrook/Kemah
- Contact:
So, if Irene was to hit the Central Texas coast...when would it get here?
-
vci_guy2003
- Posts: 203
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:04 am
- Contact:
There's a zero percent chance of that happening, so don't worry 
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
A lot of special upper air soundings are ahead for Irene. I would not be surprised to see some further W added tomorrow...
Code: Select all
NCEP Operational Status Message
Mon Aug 22 07:34:32 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 220734
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0730Z MON AUG 22 2011
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS REQUESTING SPECIAL 6-HOURLY UPPER
AIR RELEASES BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY (MON AUG 22) FROM THE
FOLLOWING STATIONS: KEY WEST, MIAMI, TAMPA, JACKSONVILLE,
TALLAHASSEE, SLIDELL, JACKSON, BIRMINGHAM, PEACHTREE CITY,
CHARLESTON, MOREHEAD CITY, GREENSBORO, NASHVILLE, WILMINGTON,
PITTSBURGH, BLACKSBURG, STERLING AND WALLOPS ISLAND.
$$
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Now forecasted to be a Major Hurricane at landfall along the SE US Coast...
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 67.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CORE OF IRENE SHOULD BE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 67.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CORE OF IRENE SHOULD BE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
- Attachments
-
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
Andrew
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3440
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
Irene looks to be a major storm for SC, NC and a lot of the East coast. This will prob be one of the most impactful storms of the season and for many years to come. Pray for everyone on the east coast because many models are coming in with pressures sub 950mb.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE AIMS AT THE BAHAMAS...FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG
HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 68.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...
AND THIS MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE
MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IRENE
COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE AIMS AT THE BAHAMAS...FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG
HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 68.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...
AND THIS MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE
MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IRENE
COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
- Attachments
-
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
750 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH...155 KM/H. DETAILS WILL
FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 815 PM AST...0015 UTC.
SUMMARY OF 750 PM AST...2350 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 68.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
750 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH...155 KM/H. DETAILS WILL
FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 815 PM AST...0015 UTC.
SUMMARY OF 750 PM AST...2350 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 68.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...FURTHER
STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...
SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 68.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
IRENE WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON
TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9
TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
...IRENE INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...FURTHER
STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...
SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 68.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
IRENE WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON
TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9
TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Bahamas are going to be wiped, sure hope they are ready
Floridians in Miami might be stocking up on Charmin, with thoughts of Andrew still fresh in their minds after 19 years & 1 week
Floridians in Miami might be stocking up on Charmin, with thoughts of Andrew still fresh in their minds after 19 years & 1 week
Andrew wrote:Irene looks to be a major storm for SC, NC and a lot of the East coast. This will prob be one of the most impactful storms of the season and for many years to come. Pray for everyone on the east coast because many models are coming in with pressures sub 950mb.
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Still looks to be a possible SE US event. Irene holding steady overnight.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 230832
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 70.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CORE OF IRENE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. EARLIER THIS MORNING...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...
93 KM/H WAS REPORTED AT PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT34 KNHC 230832
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 70.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CORE OF IRENE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. EARLIER THIS MORNING...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...
93 KM/H WAS REPORTED AT PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
HPC:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
924 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
VALID 12Z SAT AUG 27 2011 - 12Z TUE AUG 30 2011
...HURRICANE IRENE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
WEEKEND...
PRELIMINARY UPDATE:
ON A LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD WITH MAINTAINING AN UPPER VORTEX NEAR HUDSON BAY AND
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S. PLAINS...WITH VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW
BETWEEN THAT HELPS TO SUSTAIN A MEAN EAST COAST TROUGH ONCE
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES EXIT CENTRAL CANADA. ASIDE FROM HURRICANE
IRENE...DAY-TO-DAY SOLUTION DIFFERENCES ARE RELATIVELY SMALL AS
WELL AT LEAST UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS
BETWEEN THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE 00Z GFS SLIGHTLY
FASTER UNTIL ABOUT DAY 6/MON WHEN THE GFS IS CLOSET. THUS...DUE TO
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF IRENE WILL LIKELY USE THESE 3 MODELS THE MOST
IN CONSTRUCTING THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. EVEN WITH RELATIVELY CLOSE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE
TO IMPLEMENT IN THE UPCOMING PROGS...NO SOLUTION OTHER THAN THE
00Z ECMWF IS EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE TO THE HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE
CENTRAL PRESSURES SUCH AS THE GHM/HWRF WHICH HAVE IRENE BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND 930 MB AND SHIFTING TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. HOWEVER...WHEN CONSIDERING
THE ENTIRE SOLUTION SPREAD JUST BY DAY 4/SAT...TRACK DIFFERENCES
SPAN ABOUT 300 NM...SO THERE REMAINS MUCH TO RESOLVE FOR THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS OF IRENE. FOR NOW...WILL INTERPOLATE
BETWEEN THE LATEST NHC POINTS FOR DAYS 3 AND 4 WHICH HAS IRENE
MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH SC AND WILMINGTON NC LATE
SATURDAY. REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE CLOSE WITH THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IN THE
LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON DAY 5/SUN WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND ON DAY 6/MON WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WILL GREATLY REFINE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN IRENE AND THE MAIN
BAND OF WESTERLIES WITH THE ADVENT OF THE 15Z/23 NHC FORECAST AND
THE 17Z/23 COORDINATION CALL FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
924 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
VALID 12Z SAT AUG 27 2011 - 12Z TUE AUG 30 2011
...HURRICANE IRENE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
WEEKEND...
PRELIMINARY UPDATE:
ON A LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD WITH MAINTAINING AN UPPER VORTEX NEAR HUDSON BAY AND
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S. PLAINS...WITH VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW
BETWEEN THAT HELPS TO SUSTAIN A MEAN EAST COAST TROUGH ONCE
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES EXIT CENTRAL CANADA. ASIDE FROM HURRICANE
IRENE...DAY-TO-DAY SOLUTION DIFFERENCES ARE RELATIVELY SMALL AS
WELL AT LEAST UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS
BETWEEN THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE 00Z GFS SLIGHTLY
FASTER UNTIL ABOUT DAY 6/MON WHEN THE GFS IS CLOSET. THUS...DUE TO
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF IRENE WILL LIKELY USE THESE 3 MODELS THE MOST
IN CONSTRUCTING THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. EVEN WITH RELATIVELY CLOSE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE
TO IMPLEMENT IN THE UPCOMING PROGS...NO SOLUTION OTHER THAN THE
00Z ECMWF IS EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE TO THE HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE
CENTRAL PRESSURES SUCH AS THE GHM/HWRF WHICH HAVE IRENE BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND 930 MB AND SHIFTING TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. HOWEVER...WHEN CONSIDERING
THE ENTIRE SOLUTION SPREAD JUST BY DAY 4/SAT...TRACK DIFFERENCES
SPAN ABOUT 300 NM...SO THERE REMAINS MUCH TO RESOLVE FOR THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS OF IRENE. FOR NOW...WILL INTERPOLATE
BETWEEN THE LATEST NHC POINTS FOR DAYS 3 AND 4 WHICH HAS IRENE
MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH SC AND WILMINGTON NC LATE
SATURDAY. REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE CLOSE WITH THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IN THE
LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON DAY 5/SUN WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND ON DAY 6/MON WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WILL GREATLY REFINE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN IRENE AND THE MAIN
BAND OF WESTERLIES WITH THE ADVENT OF THE 15Z/23 NHC FORECAST AND
THE 17Z/23 COORDINATION CALL FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity