Irene Now a TS: Over New York City

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ensembles continue to paint an interesting scenario for those along the Northern Gulf Coast...

[Katdaddy]

97L will be watched over the next week. The ridge is very strong currently which will keep the Upper TX Coast protected. We need rain but not a hurricane.

[Ptarmigan]

1800Z GFS shows a major hurricane again near Florida. Anything can change. It could end up here. Everyone needs to keep an eye.


The water is quite warm in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. It got water right there if conditions are right.

[srainhoutx]

Rough 00Z Recap:

GFS=Greater Antilles/S FL
Euro=Greater Antilles/S FL
HWRF=Greater Antilles
CMC=S of Greater Antilles/Yucatan Channel
UKMET=S of Greater Antilles/Yucatan Channel
GFDL= Little development S of Greater Antilles
GFS ENS=S of Hispaniola/crossing Cuba/Dry Tortugas/W Coast FL

[srainhoutx]

12Z...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OVER HISPANIOLA
BY MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN
ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

HPC afternoon update:

00Z/20 MODELS HAD TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PRIOR FORECASTS
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF CLOSEST TO THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS AND
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS. 12Z MODELS DETERMINISTIC MODELS RANGE FROM
TRACKING THE SYS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AS PER THE CANADIAN/UKMET...TO THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE ALONG THE E COAST OF FL AS PER THE ECMWF/UKMET. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE USED THE LATEST COORDINATION POINTS AGREED UPON FROM
THE NHC AND EXTRAPOLATE ONE DAY FORWARD FOR THE NEW DAY 7 POINT.
THIS WILL PLACE IT OFF THE W COAST OF FL IN THE EASTERN GULF ON
SATURDAY....TO THE LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS POSITIONS.

NEW 00Z/20 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
GETTING ON THE FAR RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE
TROPICAL SYS VICINITY OF FL BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE 06Z/20 GFS
BACKED OFF FOR NEXT SAT ON BEING S FAR N WITH IT. THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CLUSTERS WELL WITH ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND EVEN SOME GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.


THE NEW 12Z GFS FOLLOWS ITS 00Z CONTINUITY REASONABLY WELL THRU
DAY 5 ON ALL THE MAIN FEATURES.
WE SEE BIGGER CHANGES FOR DAYS 6-7 AS TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
CROP UP ACROSS CANADA. THESE CHANGES WOULD REMOVE THE POLAR
WESTERLIES ACROSS SRN CANADA EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM HAVING ANY
INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYS THREATENING THE SERN
CONUS. IN FACT ALL THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE POLAR
WESTERLIES FAR ENOUGH N ACROSS SRN CANADA THAT AFTER A PINCH OF
ENERGY DROPS S INTO THE OH VLY THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL...IF ANY...INTERACTION OF ANY SE
CONUS TROPICAL SYS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE POLAR WESTERLIES.

[srainhoutx]

18Z...the trend has been to shift the tracks slowly W as time goes on...

[sambucol]

If this ridge over us lifts out, is there a possibility this storm would head our way? What is the timing of the ridge moving out over us?

[srainhoutx]

If this ridge over us lifts out, is there a possibility this storm would head our way? What is the timing of the ridge moving out over us?

Everything will depend on if and when 97L develops and just how weak or strong it may become. What is noteworthy is the consistency of guidance in breaking down the ridge that has plagued us since late May. As of now, the best guess seems to be an Eastern Gulf issue, but as we know, things can change. Let's get a storm to actually form before we speculate any further regarding anything beyond the Central Gulf Coast and points E. For now, it is just something to be aware of and HGX has mentioned it almost daily as an item to monitor.

[Katdaddy]

I agree with srainhoutx. Models have shifted slightly W today but it all depends on the ridge. Once we get a true center the models will better data input. Something to watch over the next several days.

[Katdaddy]

I am expecting TS Irene very soon and waiting for NHC to issue the first advisory. Recon has found TS force winds.

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al972011_al092011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108202225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 09, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL092011

AL, 09, 2011082018, , BEST, 0, 146N, 572W, 45, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 105,

[Katdaddy]

Looks like we have TS Irene. BEST TRACK: AL09, 146N 572W, 45kts, 1006mb, TS IRENE

[Rip76]

I'd change the title but I can't.

[srainhoutx]

I'd change the title but I can't.

When we get an official Advisory...

[Rip76]

Ok.
So from what we're seeing now, all signs point from extreme Eastern La to Florida.

Ridge still holds firm here?

[Ptarmigan]

Since Irene formed, it would be the third earliest for the 9th Atlantic storm to form.

1.) Irene 2005 (August 7th)
2.) #9 1936 (August 20th, 06Z)

Interesting to note Irene is first and third. At this rate, we could be at Greek letters.

[srainhoutx]

Warnings issued and track is out...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 58.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...
ANGUILLA...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON
MONDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY SUNDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON SUNDAY. IRENE COULD APPROACH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATE MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BY LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN