rnmm wrote:Is that the "blob" they designated as P12?
Yes. That's the one...
SYNOPSIS 2011080200
P12L
13N, 19W
700 hPa
ECMWF: Similar to GFS, with elevated OW values to the southwest, a trailing pouch to the east-southeast, and another pouch to the north. Eventually, these other features dissipate, but P12L also stays weak, dissipating at 96 hours.
GFS: The scenario is not one of a distinct, solitary pouch. Besides the pouch that is plotted, high OW values and a weaker pouch are depicted to the southwest. By 48 hours, high OW values extend also to the southeast, and another small pouch is depicted to the north. Around 72 hours, all of these features dissipate, including the tracked pouch.
UKMET: Similar to GFS. As a matter of fact, around 60 hours, a trailing pouch temporarily has higher OW values than P12L, but then it quickly dissipates, with P12L following suit soon thereafter.
NOGAPS: Unlike GFS & UKMET, NOGAPS does not have elevated OW values to the southwest, but they are certainly to the east-southeast. P12L moves slowly and erratically until it dissipates at 60 hours and the nearby, trailing pouch soon moves into that location, only to also dissipate quickly.
ECMWF -7.4 v700 & RH 96h
GFS -8.3 v700 & RH/TPW 72h
UKMET -8.2 v700 & RH 96h
NOGAPS -5.0 v700 & RH 60h
