August Weather Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

We don't need a hurricane to break the drought. We could use a warm core low pressure or slow moving front or a weak, but large tropical storm (Frances of 1998) to put a dent on the drought. If we had a December 1991, October 1994, or July 2002 event today, the drought would be ending.

[tireman4]

AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER TX SHOULD RETROGRADE A BIT TO
THE NW IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK THRU MOST OF THE WEEK. HOUSTON METRO
AREA CURRENTLY TIED FOR THE RECORD NUMBER OF 100 DEGREE DAYS IN A
YEAR (32 PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1980). NOT MUCH DOUBT IN MY MIND WE`LL
BREAK THAT THIS WEEK, QUITE POSSIBLY TODAY. THAT BEING SAID IT WOULDN`T
SURPRISE ME IF WE SAW TEMPS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S FROM TIME-TO-TIME
SHOULD THE SEABREEZE PUSH THRU AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN IT HAS
THE PAST FEW DAYS. SE TX SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES OF LATE AFTN/EVNG STORMS EACH DAY WITH EITHER DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE N/NE FLOW ALOFT OR THE SEABREEZE BEING THE PRIMARY
TRIGGERS. TEMPS COULD CLIMB EVEN HIGHER LATER IN THE WEEK SHOULD
OFFSHORE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE`S CIRCULATION EVENTUALLY MAKE
THEIR WAY THIS FAR WEST.

MEDIUM RANGE GUESSES SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EVEN FURTHER WEST
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO EVENTUALLY MODERATE. ECMWF PATTERN ACTUALLY SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH ALL THE WAY INTO CNTL TX. 47

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[djmike]

Pattern change ahead!!!! According to Larry Cosgrove and Hurricane IRENE!

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... st-22-2011

[CaliforniaSux]

I was going over the apocryphal TWTSB North American model runs and that ridge should really be out of here. A significant variance from what we have been seeing that's for sure. Hopefully it will come to pass. You say that I'm a dreamer, well I'm not the only one.

[srainhoutx]

~Sigh~

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
425 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2011

     ...THE 100-DEGREE DAY RECORDS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

    ...2011 NOW HAS MORE 100 DEGREE DAYS THAN ANY OTHER
           YEAR IN CITY OF HOUSTON WEATHER HISTORY...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS ONCE AGAIN SOARED TO 101 DEGREES IN
HOUSTON. THIS IS THE 22ND CONSECUTIVE DAY THAT THE MERCURY HAS
CLIMBED TO THE CENTURY MARK. THIS IS ALSO THE 33RD TIME THIS YEAR
THAT THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD HAS BEEN REACHED OR EXCEEDED. THIS
BREAKS THE RECORD OF 32 ONE HUNDRED DEGREE DAYS ESTABLISHED IN
1980.

MOST CONSECUTIVE 100-DEGREE DAYS AT HOUSTON (DOWNTOWN/IAH):
(RECORDS SINCE 1889)

 1. 22 DAYS - ONGOING AS OF 8/22/2011
 2. 14 DAYS - ENDING 7/19/1980
 3. 11 DAYS - ENDING 8/05/1998
 4.  9 DAYS - ENDING 7/03/1980
 5.  8 DAYS - ENDING 9/05/2000
 6.  8 DAYS - ENDING 8/21/1993
 7.  8 DAYS - ENDING 8/14/1962
 8.  7 DAYS - ENDING 6/29/2009
 9.  7 DAYS - ENDING 8/02/1986
10.  7 DAYS - ENDING 6/22/1902

MOST 100-DEGREE DAYS IN A YEAR FOR HOUSTON (DOWNTOWN/IAH):
(RECORDS SINCE 1889)

 1. 33 DAYS - 2011 (ONGOING AS OF 8/22/2011)
 2. 32 DAYS - 1980
 3. 24 DAYS - 1998
 4. 20 DAYS - 2000
 5. 19 DAYS - 1902
 6. 17 DAYS - 2009
 7. 16 DAYS - 1909
 8. 14 DAYS - 1993
 9. 13 DAYS - 1907
10. 10 DAYS - 1999

MOST CONSECUTIVE 100-DEGREE DAYS AT COLLEGE STATION:
(RECORDS SINCE 1910)

 1. 30 DAYS - ENDING 8/04/1998
 2. 26 DAYS - ENDING 8/23/1917
 3. 25 DAYS - ENDING 8/14/1937
 4. 25 DAYS - ENDING 8/10/1913
 5. 24 DAYS - ONGOING AS OF 8/22/2011
 6. 24 DAYS - ENDING 8/16/1944
 7. 22 DAYS - ENDING 8/17/1951
 8. 18 DAYS - ENDING 8/09/1958
 9. 16 DAYS - ENDING 8/24/2010
10. 15 DAYS - ENDING 8/02/1914

MOST 100-DEGREE DAYS IN A YEAR FOR COLLEGE STATION:
(RECORDS SINCE 1910)

 1. 58 DAYS - 1917
 2. 54 DAYS - 2009
 3. 51 DAYS - 1998
 4. 50 DAYS - 2011 (ONGOING AS OF 8/22/2011)
 5. 49 DAYS - 1913
 6. 48 DAYS - 2000
 7. 48 DAYS - 1925
 8. 47 DAYS - 1948
 9. 47 DAYS - 1937
10. 44 DAYS - 1951

MOST CONSECUTIVE 100-DEGREE DAYS AT HOUSTON/HOBBY:
(RECORDS SINCE 1931)

 1.  9 DAYS - ENDING 8/14/1962
 2.  7 DAYS - ENDING 9/05/2000
 3.  6 DAYS - ENDING 8/15/1948
 4.  4 DAYS - ENDING 8/19/2011
 5.  4 DAYS - ENDING 8/11/2011
 6.  4 DAYS - ENDING 7/16/2000
(STRETCH OF FOUR DAYS OCCURRED ON SEVERAL EARLIER OCCASIONS)

MOST 100-DEGREE DAYS IN A YEAR FOR HOUSTON/HOBBY:
(RECORDS SINCE 1931)

 1. 13 DAYS - 2000
 2. 13 DAYS - 1998
 3. 12 DAYS - 2011 (ONGOING AS OF 8/22/2011)
 4. 10 DAYS - 1948
 5.  8 DAYS - 1962
 6.  8 DAYS - 1980
 7.  7 DAYS - 1951
 8.  7 DAYS - 1944
 9.  6 DAYS - 2009
10.  6 DAYS - 1934

MOST 100-DEGREE DAYS IN A YEAR FOR GALVESTON:
(RECORDS SINCE 1874)

2 DAYS - 2000
1 DAY  - 1939...1932...AND 1924

(LISTS UPDATED THROUGH MONDAY 8/22/2011)

[Ptarmigan]

Yuck! When is that Cockroach Ridge going to die? I wonder if there have been months of endless 100 degree days that go before they were recorded like right now?

[redneckweather]

Here's a good one. Last week and into the weekend we had showers and thunderstorms pop up around us. I even got a good heavy 20 minute shower Friday evening at my house and a quick 10 minute shower yesterday evening. This happened when their was no rain in the forecast. Today we had a 20% chance of showers/storms and from what I saw, we didn't have near the coverage as the last couple of days.

[unome]

Cypress is still forecast to be 100/+ for the next 7 days, but at least the awful, glaring, orange & depressing, black icons are gone from the forecast for a while... http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-95.6987

going by the daily record of temps on accuweather, http://www.accuweather.com/us/tx/cypres ... =5-01-2011 , our 100/+ temps started Jun 4th in Cypress & will number 48 if we hit 100 today... 10 in June, 15 in July & all 22 days so August so far...

I think they use Hooks Airport for the temp here (you know the place with the 15-acre pond that evaporated)

[redneckweather]

Once again, a small % of rain was in the forecast today and not even a shower anywhere in the area. Give me the 0% chance of rain back so I can maybe get some rain again.

[niner21]

Weather channel says 107 for montgomery for Friday and Saturday, 106 for Sunday, 105 Monday and then cooling way off to 102 on Tuesday and a chilly 100 on Wed. and Thurs....

Side note, I heard that Lake Conroe will be dry by December if we recieve no rain and the current release of water is maintained.... Yay mudhole... Seriously, is there some kind of weather machine creating this crap because it just seems rediculous.

The high reminds me of the red spot on Jupiter.

[unome]

why don't they just cut out our hearts and stomp on them...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 240922
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
422 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MIDWEEK "COOLING" (as in POSSIBLY below 100)
IS NOT LIKELY COMING TO PASS. AS SUCH WILL BE EXTENDING THE HEAT
ADVISORY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUBSIDENT PATTERN LOOKS
TO BE INCREASINGLY MORE SUBSIDENT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN/
STRENGTHENS FROM THE WEST THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RESULTING
TEMPS COULD BE RATHER EXTREME FOR SE TX IN THE FRI THRU MON TIME (like they haven't been extreme)
PERIOD. ALL OF THIS IS POSSIBLE EVEN DESPITE THE INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND A `COOL` FRONT LATE FRI. THE LOW-LEVEL NLY FLOW COULD
ALSO HAVE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF SHUTTING DOWN THE SEABREEZE.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM...STILL HANGING ONTO THE SLIM HOPE OF SOME
VERY ISO ACTIVITY THIS AFTN...OVER THE N/NE PARTS OF THE CWA VIA
THE WEAK DISTURBANCES...AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE COAST VIA THE SEA
BREEZE. BUT OVERALL NOT A LOT OF NEW HOPE ON THE HORIZON AS THIS (hasn't been all summer)
TATOOINE-LIKE CLIMATE PERSISTS. 41

IF THE PROGGED TEMPS VERIFY...WE COULD REACH/BREAK SOME MAX TEMP
RECORDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

FRI SAT SUN
8/26 8/27 8/29
IAH 102/1990 104/1990 101/1902
CLL 103/1999 104/1990 103/1928
GLS 97/1924 99/1990 96/1995

&&

.MARINE...
THE PATTERN OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OVER THE BAYS DURING THE DAY
SWITCHING TO OVER THE WATER AT NIGHT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. INTENSE AFTERNOON HEATING MAY REVERSE THE WINDS BRIEFLY
WITH A SEABREEZE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
FLOW ABOVE IT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INLAND PENETRATION AND DURATION
OF THE WIND REVERSAL. BROAD BUT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY.
45
&&

.FIRE...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES 100 AND ABOVE. A SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY BRINGING NO COOLING OF THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT WILL LOWER THE MINS. UNFORTUNATELY IT
WILL LOWER THE HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES OF
102 TO 107 WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER FURTHER WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY READINGS OF 12-22 PERCENT OVER SETX INCLUDING AREAS NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL
ISSUE AN SPS CONCERNING THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER. IF THE WINDS
SHOULD BE HIGHER IN FUTURE RUNS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
45
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. NO CB OR VC PLANNED AS SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING DRYING TAKES
HOLD. SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING WITH SOME CI DEBRIS LIKELY
FROM THE NORTHEAST.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 103 78 104 78 105 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 102 78 103 78 103 / 20 10 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 83 94 83 96 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[wxman57]

My coworker keeps saying it will get hotter by Friday. Can't wait! May lawn will be bursting into flames by the weekend.

[unome]

My coworker keeps saying it will get hotter by Friday. Can't wait! May lawn will be bursting into flames by the weekend.

is it possible we (Cypress) can go the entire month of August with 100/+ temps??? I would have never believed it, but if we hit the forecast for the next week, we'll be there... we've had 24 consecutive days already

[biggerbyte]

Didn't you guys read somewhere that Irene was going to help push this ridge way west and bring cooler and wetter weather? Where is that theory laying today? Something around here has to give, and I mean soon. I just don't see it.

[unome]

I thought the high moving west would possibly give Irene a "path" to move north (back when the models sent her north), but I don't remember it being said that Irene would cause the high to move west

of course, my memory is damaged by heat stroke, so take that with a grain of salt...

[Katdaddy]

Even hotter temps Friday and Saturday?....109F IAH Friday!?

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER AND BELIEVE IT OR
NOT...EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. A CONVERGENCE OF DRY
AND SUBSIDENT AIR WILL LEAD TO INTENSE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. THE NAM 12 2 METER TEMPS ARE PROGGED
TO REACH REACH 111 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AT CLL AND 109 AT HOUSTON. THESE
VALUES ARE NEAR THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR THESE CITIES.
THE NAM 12 HAS BEEN THE PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES. WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON
TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY ACTUALLY BE LESS THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE
BECAUSE OF THE LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISSUED A PNS EARLIER WITH THE
HIGHEST ALL TIME TEMPERATURES RECORDED FOR OUR FOUR FIRST ORDER
CLIMATE SITES.

[rnmm]

Even hotter temps Friday and Saturday?....109F IAH Friday!?

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER AND BELIEVE IT OR
NOT...EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. A CONVERGENCE OF DRY
AND SUBSIDENT AIR WILL LEAD TO INTENSE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. THE NAM 12 2 METER TEMPS ARE PROGGED
TO REACH REACH 111 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AT CLL AND 109 AT HOUSTON. THESE
VALUES ARE NEAR THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR THESE CITIES.
THE NAM 12 HAS BEEN THE PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES. WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON
TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY ACTUALLY BE LESS THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE
BECAUSE OF THE LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISSUED A PNS EARLIER WITH THE
HIGHEST ALL TIME TEMPERATURES RECORDED FOR OUR FOUR FIRST ORDER
CLIMATE SITES.

This is horrific!! I don't think there are any more words left to describe how we feel!

[tireman4]

Ok, this is gone from crazy to stupid. I mean, with all of the meteorological knowledge on this board, we are not supposed to say stupid, but dadgum. This is just become dang stupid. No end in sight, it is getting hotter, the "cool front" that is coming will make air hotter without the moisture to impede from getting hotter earlier. Are you kidding me?

[redneckweather]

I feel ya tireman. This is down right ridiculous. to add insult to injury, we have storms off to our northeast right now moving southwest but guess what? They are just teasing us and will not make it down here. Shoot me already.

[srainhoutx]

From ERCOT:

NewsRelease
August 24 2011 Print Version

ERCOT in level 2 emergency; Consumers asked to conserve 3-7 p.m. today

Power Warning - Conservation Critical
Consumers asked to conserve electricity until 7 pm; Low risk of rotating outages
Austin, Aug.24, 2011 -- Consumers and businesses are asked to reduce their electricity use during peak electricity hours from 3 to 7 p.m. today to avert the need for rotating outages.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc. (ERCOT), system operator for the state’s bulk transmission grid, initiated Energy Emergency Alert Level 2 at 3:10 p.m. today due to responsive reserves below 1,750 megawatts (MW).

“Interruptible loads – large customers paid to be dropped in a level 2 emergency are being deployed,” said Kent Saathoff, vice president of system planning and operations. “At this time, we feel the risk of needing the last step of our emergency procedures – rotating outages – is low.”

“Capacity is expected to be very tight over the peak today – particularly between 4 and 5 p.m. We are asking consumers and businesses to reduce their electricity use as much as they are able during peak electricity hours from 3 to 7 p.m.,” Saathoff said.

Consumers can help by shutting off unnecessary lights and electrical appliances, minimizing the use of air conditioning and delaying laundry and other activities requiring electricity-consuming appliances until later in the evening.

Power Warnings are issued by the electric grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), when there is a high risk that rotating outages will be needed to reduce load.

The emergency procedures are a progressive series of steps that allow ERCOT to bring on uncommitted generation and power from other grids. If the situation does not improve, ERCOT will first drop load resources (a market-based demand response program) and other resources under contract to be interrupted during an emergency. Only as a last resort (Power Emergency) to avoid the risk of a complete blackout does ERCOT ask utilities to reduce demand by dropping load through rotating outages.

Rotating outages are controlled, temporary interruptions of electrical service initiated by each utility when supplies of reserve power are exhausted. Without this safety valve, generators would overload and begin shutting down to avoid damage, risking a domino effect of a region-wide outage.

The outages are typically limited to 15-45 minutes before being rotated to a different neighborhood. Some customers may experience longer outages if power surges cause equipment failure during the restoration process. Customers can minimize power surges by turning off appliances, lights and other equipment, except for one task light to determine when power has been restored.

Consumers should contact the utility company/ transmission provider listed on their electric bill for information about power outages at their homes or business, or about rotating outage procedures for their area.