Remnants of Emily in Central Subtropical Atlantic

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY HESITATES...IT COULD BE REORGANIZING...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 63.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. EMILY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 12 MPH...19 KM/H...LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WAS REPORTED ON
ST. THOMAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES LATER TODAY...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY BACK ON TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST. EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION AT 12
MPH...19 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...70
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[biggerbyte]

Nothing has changed for s.e. Texas. Ridge still in place. Emily will either stay well east, or well south of our area. Watching for possible future changes to our rediculous pattern.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 65.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS
THE CENTER OF EMILY ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE LOCATED MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Ptarmigan]

Buoy 42059 ... 15.1ºN 67.5ºW

42059 - MARITIME-buoy
Wednesday Aug. 3 - 2:50 UTC
Air Temperature: 82°F
Dewpoint: 78°F
Wind: S at 7 mph
gusting to 7
Pressure: 1008.7 mb
Weather: Clear
Wave Height: 8 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 84.2°F

[Ptarmigan]

Recent ASCAT shows Emily might be an open trough.

[sleetstorm]

We could have used the rain from that thing, yet it does not look like SE Texas will be getting any of the rain Tropical Storm Emily is producing with the ridge of high pressure in place.

[texoz]

Recent ASCAT shows Emily might be an open trough.

that's wacky. satellite presentation right now is the best Emily has shown with current CDO. will be very interesting to see what recon finds.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY HEADING WESTWARD...REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 69.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST. EMILY HAS
BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. HOWEVER...A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
HISPANIOLA...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY BECOMING DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...STILL
EXPECTED TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 69.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN IN EASTERN CUBA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE WESTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA...FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see convection firing N and NE of the exposed center now...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER
HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 71.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN OVER EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW BE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Andrew]

It might be taking that NW turn or it could be the LLC being sucked back up into the convection. The next hour or two should tell us.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[Ptarmigan]

Intensity model for Emily.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY STILL MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 71.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI ON
THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN PUERTO RICO.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Ptarmigan]

Emily is one strange storm.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...EMILY MEANDERING JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 71.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 17.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST. EMILY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME
EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN PUERTO RICO.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...EMILY NUDGING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...DRENCHING HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 72.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY
AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...AND 2 TO 4 FEET WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA IN THE BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...EMILY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 75.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
HAVE DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF EMILY WERE
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH EMILY HAS WEAKENED IT IS CAPABLE TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS GUSTS COULD STILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Ptarmigan]

Bye Emily. It was nice knowing you. See you in 2017.