Remnants of Emily in Central Subtropical Atlantic

[rnmm]

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invest_al912011.invest
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040
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201107290409
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011072900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072806, , BEST, 0, 79N, 343W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 80N, 361W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 81N, 378W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 395W, 20, 1009, LO

[djjordan]

Will be interesting to watch 91L evolve over the next days.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 195 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

06Z...perhaps a major Hurricane brewing...

[jgreak]

It certainly seems we will have a very interesting storm to track over the next few days

[kellybell4770]

think this one is goin fishin?

[srainhoutx]

Medium/long range guidance does suggest the ridge will remain in control and a strengthening Bermuda ridge as well. We saw with 90L that track/intensity in the early stages of an invest are difficult at best to verify. Once TC genesis occurs, I suspect we'll get a better idea how this feature plays out, if it develops. For now, just something to be aware of unless you are in the Islands.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests TC genesis near the 48 hour mark and that model does suggest a more Central Islands threat for now...

[srainhoutx]

RECON has been tasked for 91L along with a high altitude G-IV mission...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT FRI 29 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-059 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATVIE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. INVEST SUSPECT AREA AT 31/1800Z NEAR 14.0N 54.0W.
B. ADDED....A G-IV MISSION FOR 01/0000Z.
3. REMARK: P-3 MISSIONS FOR 29/1200Z AND 30/0000Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 28/2345Z.

[rnmm]

Still at 30%


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS.

1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

The Euro is rather unimpressed with 91L and does open the door for a weaker disturbance heading into the Eastern Caribbean tracking W/WNW...we shall see...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS.

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[rnmm]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE VERY LOW
IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

Looking at HI RES visible imagery, the vort near 15N/45W appears to be the dominant feature. It does look like a mid level spin is developing and outflow is becoming a bit better established. The disturbance is moving rather quickly, but should begin to slow as it nears the Central Caribbean Islands. Hopefully future MW data will verify that area and if it does, I could see the NHC begin to ramp up their interest with the Islands being near that 72 hour point were advisories could be needed. We all remember Tomas last year...

[kellybell4770]

I'm such a hurricane junky I'm ready for the next one

[srainhoutx]

A busy RECON schedule is being tacked for 91L...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SAT 30 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-060

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 31/1530Z
D. 14.5N 56.0W
E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 01/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02EEA SURV
C. 31/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 01/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 01/0400Z
D. 15.2N 58.1W
E. 01/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z.
3. REMARKS:
A. IF SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP, FLIGHT THREE
WILL BECOME A 01/1200Z INVEST MISSION.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[Andrew]

91L already looks like a TD and is on the way to a TS. The rotation is impressive and this thing is huge! Luckily as of now this storm looks to re-curve before the U.S. but unfortunately the islands ahead look to be in bulls-eye. Should be interesting to see what NHC does at the next update.

[srainhoutx]

A nice discussion this afternoon from NWS Key West. The same can be said for those of us along the NW Gulf Coast as well:

ATTENTION WILL BE TURNING TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE AND EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED MORE THAN
2300 MILES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE..AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ASSIGNED
AN 80% CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO BY
MIDWEEK. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK TO DETERMINE IF
THERE IS ANY THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SHOULD SIGNAL THAT NOW IS THE TIME TO
COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR THE UPCOMING PEAK MONTHS OF THE 2011
HURRICANE SEASON.

[Ptarmigan]

I think 91L is already Tropical Depression 5 or even Emily.